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So yea, go ahead and be a recycler that's incredibly bad at recovering expensive materials to sell later. It's probably not going to work out very well and you'll be put out of business by places that actually know what they're doing.
US Geological Survey for the past few years have kept revising upwards by large margins the amount of proven economically viable reserves. That just gets larger and larger for a while. Also, did you just use one of the largest battery packs sold in the US and with its lithium content from 2016 when energy density was substantially lower and taking the weight of the lithium carbonate precursor which is only 24% lithium by weight as your *average* for the future? Did you not understand this when you did it or are you trying to be slimy about this? This is ridiculously unreasonable.
66 kWh each day per vehicle as in you're using the full pack every day? Do you mean you're projecting ~250 miles every day for each vehicle 365 days a year as an *average* number of miles driven a day? Does this not seem stupid to you? The average number of miles driven a *year* in the US is about 13,500 miles. You're projecting 91,250 miles driven a year instead as an average.
Again, you're awful at analysis. No wonder the numbers don't make sense, because you're posting complete nonsense and have no idea of it. How does someone get the confidence to be this ridiculous and have no idea they're doing so? I understand why these numbers would be worrisome, but to arrive at these numbers you'd have to first be scientifically and numerically illiterate in the first place or incredibly dishonest.
Apparently Tesla Model 3 owners drive a hell of a lot, but only those with the smallest battery pack.
I drive WAY more average daily miles than the typical US driver and still rarely get home at even 50%.
Almost near completely off on lithium scarcity. The proven reserve numbers are nigh meaningless given how quickly they've gone up in the last several years. Your swap after the first one is nonsense because use of lithium in batteries does not mean the lithium disappears after battery degradation. In fact, thus far it's mean that the same amount of lithium actually ends up being an even larger amount of effective energy capacity because continued battery energy density improvements have meant the same amount of raw battery materials a decade later yields substantially more energy capacity. On top of that, lithium-ion isn't even necessarily going to continue being the dominant chemistry for secondary cell batteries.
Then call the winner for us. Sodium? Solid state? I'd like to hear your prognostications, because I need to know where to invest my money, and apparently you can see the future and you know something that Elon Musk and other giants of the industry don't.
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You have no idea what you're talking about.
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Given your previous posts, my money's on that you didn't even know what you're agreeing about because you have so little clue about what's being discussed.
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You have no experience with EVs. You do not have any knowledge of this and you probably have nothing resembling a STEMs background. You have a lot of bluster, but all that does is make it apparent how ignorant you are on this topic the longer you keep going.
Thank you for elevating the conversation. It's such a pleasure to discuss technical issues with people who focus on the topic rather than trying to insult and denigrate those who disagree with them. And who make completely unfounded assumptions about the backgrounds of other posters.
Regarding the topic "Are Electric Cars Worth It?" -- I continue to be unconvinced. I think SkyDog and V8Vega have made some reasonable observations about EV's ("Single pedal driving is so much better. The torque is so much better. Never going to a gas station is so much better. Never getting an oil change is so much better.") and they are persuading me that an EV would be pleasant as a scoot-about for in-town use. So much so that I'm shopping for a used EV for my daughter who needs one for local college (she has declared that she hates the appearance of the older Leaf, but you know, beggars can't be choosers).
Are new EV's worth the extra cost? For now, I would say not. If you like technology, and can afford one, get one and enjoy the cool factor and the no-fuel lifestyle. When I can afford one, I'll probably get one.
But the reasonable and best choice remains PHEV; the technology is mature and provides 90% of what a BEV provides, without the range problem. Even in China, which is leading the charge with a hundred BEV makers, PHEV's are still the biggest share of the electrified market. BYD, which is nearly as big as Tesla in EV sales, actually sells more PHEV's.
There is no inherent “range problem”. Data proves time and time again that less than a percentage point of people need more than 300 miles daily, and still, nearly any current EV will accomplish that ridiculous edge case.
A homeowner driving a gas car 300 miles daily would be more inconvenienced than if I did it in my EV. Period, end of story.
“Range anxiety” is a gasser issue. It’s more aptly labeled “anxiety of the unknown” because too many are unable to perform accurate analysis of their needs. This unfortunately doesn’t just apply to driving…
The problem with these conversations is one side doesn’t know what they’re talking about because they have little, if any, experience with the technology being discussed. They’re attempting to school owners based on what they read or watched, invariably from biased sources.
I stand by my now-two year old assertion that it’s mostly political. We’re tired of going round and round in circles with the same posters, and then having to start all over with new ones parroting the same nonsense.
There is no inherent “range problem”. Data proves time and time again that less than a percentage point of people need more than 300 miles daily, and still, nearly any current EV will accomplish that ridiculous edge case.
A homeowner driving a gas car 300 miles daily would be more inconvenienced than if I did it in my EV. Period, end of story.
“Range anxiety” is a gasser issue. It’s more aptly labeled “anxiety of the unknown” because too many are unable to perform accurate analysis of their needs. This unfortunately doesn’t just apply to driving…
The problem with these conversations is one side doesn’t know what they’re talking about because they have little, if any, experience with the technology being discussed. They’re attempting to school owners based on what they read or watched, invariably from biased sources.
I stand by my now-two year old assertion that it’s mostly political. We’re tired of going round and round in circles with the same posters, and then having to start all over with new ones parroting the same nonsense.
Don't take my word for it. Consider this Motor Trend analysis from a couple of years ago, pitting trad ICE cars against close EV equivalents. In most cases they conclude that in 5 years, the ICE car wins, in terms of total cost of ownership.
The equation is likely to change if EV prices decline and ICE prices remain the same, and if gasoline prices remain the same or climb.
Right now, it seems like EV is a lifestyle choice, not a logical economic choice.
I'm not sure how a family of four going on a weekend camping trip 200 miles upstate is going to find an EV more convenient, but maybe one of the EV drivers here can elucidate. To me, that's not an "edge case" as a couple of people have asserted, but rather, a common need. Cars are designed to go hundreds of miles and refuel within 5 minutes. It's hard to see why this is such an unusual and unreasonable thing to ask.
Then call the winner for us. Sodium? Solid state? I'd like to hear your prognostications, because I need to know where to invest my money, and apparently you can see the future and you know something that Elon Musk and other giants of the industry don't.
Thank you for elevating the conversation. It's such a pleasure to discuss technical issues with people who focus on the topic rather than trying to insult and denigrate those who disagree with them. And who make completely unfounded assumptions about the backgrounds of other posters.
Regarding the topic "Are Electric Cars Worth It?" -- I continue to be unconvinced. I think SkyDog and V8Vega have made some reasonable observations about EV's ("Single pedal driving is so much better. The torque is so much better. Never going to a gas station is so much better. Never getting an oil change is so much better.") and they are persuading me that an EV would be pleasant as a scoot-about for in-town use. So much so that I'm shopping for a used EV for my daughter who needs one for local college (she has declared that she hates the appearance of the older Leaf, but you know, beggars can't be choosers).
Are new EV's worth the extra cost? For now, I would say not. If you like technology, and can afford one, get one and enjoy the cool factor and the no-fuel lifestyle. When I can afford one, I'll probably get one.
But the reasonable and best choice remains PHEV; the technology is mature and provides 90% of what a BEV provides, without the range problem. Even in China, which is leading the charge with a hundred BEV makers, PHEV's are still the biggest share of the electrified market. BYD, which is nearly as big as Tesla in EV sales, actually sells more PHEV's.
This is overall a pretty disingenuous post.
How did you get that claim that I did or am willing to call a "winner" from "On top of that, lithium-ion isn't even necessarily going to continue being the dominant chemistry for secondary cell batteries."? How did "isn't even necessarily" become a declaration of clairvoyance? This isn't even a technical matter, this is a basic reading comprehension issue.
It's interesting that you singled out individual sentences stating that you have no idea what you're talking about, but then ignored the parts explaining why or how that conclusion was made.
I don't care if you remain unconvinced, I just want to make it explicit to others where your logic is faulty or your information is just plain wrong. You just did it again with your statement about China's market which are unsupported and just plain wrong. PHEVs do not the biggest market share there--BEVs have had larger market share than PHEVs for years now and that continues to be the case. July 2023 sales data has the market share in China as 26% BEV vs 12% PHEV. YTD has been 24% BEV vs 12% PHEV. If you're so confident in what China does as a harbinger for what's to come, then well, it's pretty apparently BEVs over PHEVs especially as BYD has rapidly shifted its lineup towards BEVs over the last couple of years.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 09-14-2023 at 08:45 AM..
Don't take my word for it. Consider this Motor Trend analysis from a couple of years ago, pitting trad ICE cars against close EV equivalents. In most cases they conclude that in 5 years, the ICE car wins, in terms of total cost of ownership.
The equation is likely to change if EV prices decline and ICE prices remain the same, and if gasoline prices remain the same or climb.
Right now, it seems like EV is a lifestyle choice, not a logical economic choice.
I'm not sure how a family of four going on a weekend camping trip 200 miles upstate is going to find an EV more convenient, but maybe one of the EV drivers here can elucidate. To me, that's not an "edge case" as a couple of people have asserted, but rather, a common need. Cars are designed to go hundreds of miles and refuel within 5 minutes. It's hard to see why this is such an unusual and unreasonable thing to ask.
Does this family of 4 own two cars?
If, like my family, they own two vehicles and frequently go camping on the weekends, one EV and one ICE is not a stretch. One of the cars drives around the city and gets the bulk of the miles, and one that goes on the long weekend trips. Our Toyota Land Cruiser is the mountain beast and has been driven 3K miles this year. Our EV has 12.5K miles this year. We have taken the EV to Aspen, Steamboat, and Moab. The Land Cruiser goes when I’m climbing mountains and need to drive a 4WD road where clearance is required.
The EV is just a much more practical car for everyday city driving. This is the type of driving most people do every day. Waking up with a full tank of gas every morning is, in a word, delightful. Not worrying about oil changes or frequent brake jobs from lots of mountain driving is really nice.
From a practicality standpoint, I don’t know how you argue against this. Your anti EV rant feels religious.
Now, if you are a single vehicle household, I get it. There are edge case limitations if you do a lot of long weekend driving.
If, like my family, they own two vehicles and frequently go camping on the weekends, one EV and one ICE is not a stretch. One of the cars drives around the city and gets the bulk of the miles, and one that goes on the long weekend trips. Our Toyota Land Cruiser is the mountain beast and has been driven 3K miles this year. Our EV has 12.5K miles this year. We have taken the EV to Aspen, Steamboat, and Moab. The Land Cruiser goes when I’m climbing mountains and need to drive a 4WD road where clearance is required.
The EV is just a much more practical car for everyday city driving. This is the type of driving most people do every day. Waking up with a full tank of gas every morning is, in a word, delightful. Not worrying about oil changes or frequent brake jobs from lots of mountain driving is really nice.
From a practicality standpoint, I don’t know how you argue against this. Your anti EV rant feels religious.
Now, if you are a single vehicle household, I get it. There are edge case limitations if you do a lot of long weekend driving.
Most families own two cars, so yes, it might make sense for the 2nd to be an EV.
Toyota, by the way, is coming out with a new hybrid Land Cruiser that looks quite nice. Toyota, of course, has been staunchly EV-agnostic if not anti-EV for years now, though have recently introduced a couple of mediocre EV models probably for fleet quota purposes in places like California rather than a serious effort to compete with Tesla. I do think they should try harder to compete with Tesla, who has been eating their lunch in the European market.
By the way, I literally said I want to buy an EV. Does that sound like what an anti-EV-ist would say?
Most families own two cars, so yes, it might make sense for the 2nd to be an EV.
Toyota, by the way, is coming out with a new hybrid Land Cruiser that looks quite nice. Toyota, of course, has been staunchly EV-agnostic if not anti-EV for years now, though have recently introduced a couple of mediocre EV models probably for fleet quota purposes in places like California rather than a serious effort to compete with Tesla. I do think they should try harder to compete with Tesla, who has been eating their lunch in the European market.
By the way, I literally said I want to buy an EV. Does that sound like what an anti-EV-ist would say?
I would say the 1st car in our garage is an EV, but that’s just semantics.
Toyota’s former CEO, Akio Toyoda, went all-in on hybrid being the better solution. He stepped down and handed the reigns to Kojo Sato who has Toyota scrambling to catch up on EV models. In his remarks, Toyoda said “To advance change at Toyota, I have reached the decision that it is best for me to support a new president while I become chairman.” This was largely viewed as an acknowledgment that he missed the boat on EVs and that the company needed new leadership that could get them on track in the space.
The reason the two models Toyota introduced are mediocre is because they were late to the party. I have to think they will catch up.
I must have missed your post saying you want an EV. It’s a long thread, so my apologies.
Is that any different than an old car needing a new engine at 300,000 miles?
There is risk that in 20 years there will be no replacement battery, as battery manufacturers may have moved on to newer technologies, form factors, etc that are not backwards compatible. If I understand it correctly, the Chevy Bolt's existing architecture is now end-of-lifed as GM is moving on to the Ultium Platform. SO, in 20 years, will yesterday's Bolt customer be able to purchase a replacement battery? No one knows of course but there are risks.
For example, stuck in a closet somewhere I have a broken VCR machine. But there are no parts available to repair it - technology has moved on.
Yes, parts availability for an unpopular ICE can be an issue, but it is relatively straight forward to acquire and install re-manufactured and even brand new crate engines & transmissions for a wide variety of mainstream vehicles. At least for now.
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