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I wonder how much longer we will continue to see clubs signing age 30 plus superstars to contracts which extend to age 40 or longer?
The folly of the Alex Rodriguez contract has been playing out in New York for the past several seasons. Rodriguez is now a seldom used bench player, and only used as a DH or PH. NY may well swallow the 26 million he is owed for 2017 and cut him loose.
The there is Albert and the Angels. In his 11 seasons with St. Louis, Pujols batted .328/.420/.617. He hit a home run every 16 plate appearances. He compiled 86.4 WAR while being paid a total of 104 million, or about 1.2 million per WAR point. He went from age 21 through age 31 as a Cardinal.
In five seasons as an Angel Pujols has batted .265/.326/.472. He has hit a home run every 21 plate appearances. He has compiled 14.2 WAR while collecting 100 million dollars, or 7 million dollars per WAR point produced.
Pujols is signed through age 41 and is owed 165 million dollars for 2017 and beyond. He is of course likely to continue to decline.
Detroit has so far dodged a bullet with Miguel Cabrera's contract and he has continued to produce well at age 33 if no longer MVP type seasons. But....He is signed through at least age 40 and is owed 272 million for his ages 34-40 seasons. (there are two more option years after that, but they only vest if Cabrera finishes in the top ten in the MVP vote the season before.)
The Rangers will be paying Prince Fielder 98 million dollars for the 2017 through 2020 seasons. In seven seasons with the Brewers, Fielder batted .282/.390/.540. In his three seasons with Texas it has been .269/.350/.410, for which he has been paid 72 million.
The Phillies will finally be shedding their Ryan Howard albatross of a contract, the Red Sox are stuck with Pablo Sandoval for another three seasons at 19 million a year. Jason Heyward is just in the first year of what is already shaping up to be eight year disaster.
Baltimore had its Albert Bell, the Giants had Aaron Rowand...name a club and it has had its moment of foolishness.
Now, quickly...name all the players you can think of who signed a mega deal for multiple years after turning 30, who turned out to be worth the money.
I just saw that the Yankees have called a press conference for 11 am tomorrow with the subject being Alex Rodriguez. I don't think it is to announce another contract extension, and I don't think it is to announce that he will be playing more....so...
Even though it hasn't been announced what it's for I think everyone knows it's him announcing his retirement. The big question remains to be seen: Is it going to be effective immediately, or is it going to be after this season. There's also the slim chance that it's the Yankees announcing they have DFA'd/released him. I'm going with the retiring immediately.
Now that we've had 40 years of free agency it'd be interesting to read an in-depth analysis of this very topic. I'm quite sure free agents have provided very little benefits to teams when they sign long-term. I think I'd rather see free agency kick in for players after four full seasons instead of six; get players on the market a little younger, when they might be able to make a difference.
I was looking at the Yankees payroll on Baseball-Reference yesterday. A-Rod, Teixeira, Ellsbury, Sabathia, McCann, Headley, and Tanaka - all signed to exorbitant contracts. Any of them really worth it? Tanaka could be if his health holds up, but then agan, he's got an opt-out after next season. If he opts out, the Yanks should take advantage of it and let him go elsewhere - learn from their Sabathia mistake. McCann hasn't been too bad, but he's minused out by Headley, who was paid nearly what McCann makes but was wanted long-term by absolutely no one but the Yankees. McCann most likely gets traded in the offseason, and the Yanks will most likely have to pay for half of his last two years. NY will have to eat Headley's entire deal as soon as they get a passable replacement. As for Ellsbury, he may periodically surprise people with above average play, but he's a good candidate to end up like Matt Kemp, a guy with a huge contract that's being paid by three different organizations as he gets passed around as a stop-gap player.
As a Phillies fan I get absolutely baffled by some of my fellow fans who are complaining about the Phillies not going after the big names on the free agent market like the Yankees do, yet they rant endlessly about Ryan Howard. Having only one contractual albatross is enough for me. I'll be pleased if the Phils keep resisting emulating the New York Yankees.
What did Sandoval ever do that Boston was willing to drop $20 mil per year?
It was one of those absurd conclusions. Sandoval had been a very spotty regular season player, but had performed extremely well in his post season appearances. Boston got him with the idea that he would help them win in October.
It is an idea which overlooks the possibility that his regular season performance might hurt the team's chances of reaching the post season. For a club which so heavily was invested in advanced metric analysis, this was a retrograde impulse buy. Sample sizes from post season performances are too small to identify anyone as either great or terrible in the post season. For example, Ty Cobb batted only .262 /.314 /.354 in his three World Series. We are talking luck, not talent.
Long contracts are insanity for anyone......whether 22 or 32! Injuries happen, life happens.
I think the Red Sox, Yankees get hung up on big dollar deals because they have the capability to pay those salaries while smaller market teams simply can't.
Among the recent losers, Carl Crawford, Pablo Sandoval, Prince Fielder, Rusney Castillo, Puig, Pujols, etc.
With A-Rod, Crawford the teams both cut their losses and just paid up and moved on. A-Rod gets his 20 million salary for this year and 20 for next year. The special assistant job is weird.....Just be like Jeter, retire and go enjoy your life.
It just struck me that Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz will both become eligible for the HoF vote in December of 2021. It is expected that Rodriguez will get the same treatment that has been imposed upon Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Palmiero et al. But will Big Papi, also an exposed 'roider, be punished in the same manner?
I mentioned Prince Fielder's contract in the OP and today it has been reported that Fielder will announce his retirement from baseball due to medical reasons (neck) at a press conference tomorrow.
The Rangers, and the Tigers as well, are getting hit with the same sour deal which Baltimore had with Albert Bell. Because he is being forced to retire for medical reasons, Fielder's contract remains guaranteed. He is owed 24 million per year for four more seasons after 2016.
The Rangers will only be on the hook for 9 million a year. Part of the deal with the Tigers when they traded Fielder for Ian Kinsler was that they would remain responsible for six million a year of Fielder's contract. That leaves 18 million to be paid by Texas, but they took out a 50% insurance policy which means that they will pay nine million and the insurance company must pay the other nine million. So through 2020, Price will be collecting 96 million from three different payees.
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