Another Moving to Bend Thread (Redmond, Madras: for sale, 2014, rental)

[oregonwoodsmoke]

Originally Posted by mikalalnr

........ They're all in the $300-$400k range. What people need here are the $300 and less. .......

It's a little tricky to do a subdivisions of houses under $300,000 when lots cost over $100,000 each, systems development fees for each house are close to $30,000, and lot preparation, in rocky Central Oregon, can be $30,000 per house. Then there is $10,000-$15,000 for utilities hook-ups.

On top of that, the city charges several thousand dollars for an "affordable housing" fee. I have absolutely no idea where that fee is going because it sure isn't going to provide affordable housing.

[Dusky21]

Well, I took my trip out to Bend last week and only saw good things. Spent some time looking at houses on the eastern side of Hwy. 97. I like the area, yes, I would love to live on the west side of town, but like you all have said that is not realistic. Were looking for houses in the $250-300 range to buy. I definately have my concerns about the bubble bursting. Many of those houses have gone up $50k or more in the last 2 years, and some $100k since 2013. If it were to burst again that would really suck. I met some people at a bar and they were saying Bend is expecting 40k more people in the next 5-10 years, so that has me wondering about the housing market. I guess I could see in go either way.

On the flip side, I have to say - traffic is not bad in Bend. Living in Boulder traffic was probably twice as bad, and even in St. Louis where I live now, my 5 mile to work commute takes 20-30 minutes. So I have to say I found Bend traffic not terribly bad.

All the people I met while there were extremely friendly. Funny thing was that they all complained about the people moving there and the traffic. Anyways, thanks for all the info. hopefully I get the job.

[Thom52]

Originally Posted by Dusky21

........

All the people I met while there were extremely friendly. Funny thing was that they all complained about the people moving there and the traffic. Anyways, thanks for all the info. hopefully I get the job.

Everyone wants to be the last person to move to Bend. Please shut the doors behind them.

And I certainly can't point to myself as an exception.

[Aubie177]

Good luck, Dusky. I think you'll enjoy Bend but affordable housing could be a challenge. I've owned a couple of long-term rental properties over the last several years and finding renters has never been difficult because of the competition in the market. My approach has been to keep the rent fairly low and try to keep my tenants for the long term rather than gouge people. The housing market seems even tighter. I plan to retire there in a year or so and the real estate market has gotten really high.

[redguard57]

I think the bubble will plateau out, then very slowly deflate. I don't think the market will pop & drastically decline like it did 2008-11.

I doubt we'll ever see again the housing bargains that existed from 2010-12. God, I wish I'd bought at that time. But who had money then? I was lucky I bought in early 2014. My house value has gone up about 70% just since 2014 when I bought it. Had I bought it in 2011 I would have gained about 200%. Although it is a fairly sizeable lot, it's not even that nice of a house and it is small. Craziness.

[Dusky21]

Originally Posted by redguard57

I think the bubble will plateau out, then very slowly deflate. I don't think the market will pop & drastically decline like it did 2008-11.

I doubt we'll ever see again the housing bargains that existed from 2010-12. God, I wish I'd bought at that time. But who had money then? I was lucky I bought in early 2014. My house value has gone up about 70% just since 2014 when I bought it. Had I bought it in 2011 I would have gained about 200%. Although it is a fairly sizeable lot, it's not even that nice of a house and it is small. Craziness.

This is what concerns me the most. We are looking at houses around $275-300k. As a first time home buyer the thoughf of buying a house for $300k and in 5 years it being worth $250k terrifies me. Weve been speaking with real estate agents and loan officers and they seem to be optimistic about the housing market, and have pointed out major differences in the prior crash vs. the current home pricing. All concerning, but in the end may just have to take the chance. Who knows if all the things that have been talked about - the college, startups, etc. maybe houses will continue to go up in price, a la Boulder? 2 years ago the thought of buying a house for $400k in Boulder was terrifying, now those same houses are selling for $500k plus...

[oregonwoodsmoke]

Originally Posted by Dusky21

......the thoughf of buying a house for $300k and in 5 years it being worth $250k terrifies me. .......

And then you wait and keep making your house payments and living your life and in a few more years the house is worth $300,000 again, and a few more years after that the house is worth $350,000.

Then, because it is Central Oregon and real estate prices here have a deep cycle, it will go down again, but not as far as $250,000, maybe down to the $300,000 you paid. Then a few years past that it will go back up to $350,000 and more.

That's the way real estate has always been in Central Oregon. Deep dips and steep climbs and always the average is upward.

All you people who are scared that a house will go down in value, this is your chance to tell me that how much that $30,000 new car is worth 5 years down the road, yet you are going to die if your house drops in value?

[redguard57]

Originally Posted by Dusky21

This is what concerns me the most. We are looking at houses around $275-300k. As a first time home buyer the thoughf of buying a house for $300k and in 5 years it being worth $250k terrifies me. Weve been speaking with real estate agents and loan officers and they seem to be optimistic about the housing market, and have pointed out major differences in the prior crash vs. the current home pricing. All concerning, but in the end may just have to take the chance. Who knows if all the things that have been talked about - the college, startups, etc. maybe houses will continue to go up in price, a la Boulder? 2 years ago the thought of buying a house for $400k in Boulder was terrifying, now those same houses are selling for $500k plus...

Real estate agents are going to tell you it is ALWAYS time to buy. They will never say otherwise. The best advice I ever got is that the time to buy is when you are ready - meaning you are committed to an area for at least 5 and preferably 7+ years, and you have a stable source of income.

The housing market in Central Oregon has been volatile - subject to boom and bust periods - since the early 90s when it started to transition into a tourist destination and away from a working class rural area. Might you have depreciation from $300K down to $250K in the short to medium term? Sure. But odds are the 2008 crisis was a generational one & a future downturn will not be that bad. It'll go down for a while but then will rocket up to $350-400K or more after that.

If there is a crisis as bad as 2008-11 in the short term, we are all screwed.

On the bright side, some of the growth is because people are finding actual jobs here. My wife found a decent job after only looking for 1 month...and I was sure she was going to be looking for at least 6 months and possibly up to 12-18 months. That was the recession-minded me talking, since the recession was traumatizing for people like me who graduated into it, so I will probably have a glass-half-empty view of the job market for the rest of my life. Like all Oregon jobs, her job pays less than its equivalents in other states and Oregon living costs are only low by west coast standards, high by rest of country standards. Unfortunately that is the unstated tax you pay to live in a beautiful state.

There are a lot of crap jobs because it is a tourist-oriented economy, but what I'm seeing is that those workplaces are having a heck of a time holding on to workers- indicating that there are better jobs to be had or at the very least the tourist jobs are plentiful and workers feel they can leave them without consequence. McDonalds has been begging for months, lol. So the economy in Central Oregon today I'd say is healthier than it was 2005-07. The housing market in central Oregon doubled from 2004-06 then doubled again in 2007 alone. That was absurd. The rise in housing since 2013 seems to have more to do with demand and less to do with speculation. Although we are seeing some speculation, I think the fundamentals are stronger than 10 years ago.

[BendLocal]

The service industry has an average turnover rate of 70%+

Hospitality turnover rose to 72.1% in 2015 | Reporter's Notebook

[BendLocal]

Originally Posted by redguard57

The housing market in central Oregon doubled from 2004-06 then doubled again in 2007 alone.

What data are you looking at?