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The absurdity is in competing with idiots who run up asset prices beyond rational or reasonable valuation ..
You're right, trying to afford things you can't afford is pretty absurd. But calling people idiots because they are wealthy and can afford to buy real estate, unlike yourself, where ever they wish.....makes little sense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahthatguy
You don't like when someone points out the truth about an issue because it flies in the face of the fantasy picture you try to paint about California.
Hmm.....what "fantasy picture" am I trying to paint? All you're doing is whining that the bay area is expensive, do you think that is something people aren't already aware of?
Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahthatguy
Because, I am drawing attention to the fact that the 'amazing' of California is restricted to mostly the coastal regions and there isn't that much amazingness jobs wise or etc. in inland California.
Wow....where would everyone be without you stating the obvious. Gee, the coast is the most desirable area of California? You don't say!
Regardless, the inland communities in California are comparable to many areas throughout the country. The point is, contrary to what you believe, there are plenty of safe communities, with good schools, with decent jobs, etc inland. Millions of folks are happily living in them.... Not your thing? Well...move somewhere else. Pretty simple.
If you knew anything about trading/investing/risk and how to do math you'd understand a 5% turn around in a week on $20k is nothing to sneeze at. Multiply this by 5-10 other such (net profit) trades at 40-50% of the capital in a portfolio on a regular basis and you'd understand avg.ing this on a monthly basis is not pocket change...
When you start actually trading, you know instead of pretending to trade by citing things that have already happened, you'll find that risking $20,000 for a mere $1,000 return has a low expected value once you account for risk. Of course risk doesn't matter when all you're doing is looking at things that have already happened.
Regardless, if the basis of your trade was that you believed that the equity was going to move in the short-term then your trade was dumb. You could have achieved the same gain while only risking $700 or so.... Anyhow, just sorta funny to see you brag about gaining pocket change from bad trades...
Watch the videos I posted and see why its a big problem in Vancouver.... and in parallel here...[/i]
Yeah, I understand your argument, but if a place becomes too overpriced for a person or family to live they can always move. That's what we did...move to a cheaper location to go to school and build up a skill set to where we can compete in any metro, including New York.
People can still afford to live in any city they like (for the most part), they just have to give up certain amenities to do it. If you're a family who survives off a low wage, you'll have to share an apartment with another family or set of wage earners. Plenty of people do it in SF, NYC, LA etc already.
When you start actually trading, you know instead of pretending to trade by citing things that have already happened, you'll find that risking $20,000 for a mere $1,000 return has a low expected value once you account for risk. Of course risk doesn't matter when all you're doing is looking at things that have already happened.
Regardless, if the basis of your trade was that you believed that the equity was going to move in the short-term then your trade was dumb. You could have achieved the same gain while only risking $700 or so.... Anyhow, just sorta funny to see you brag about gaining pocket change from bad trades...
By your ridiculous statement above, I know you have no understanding of what risks are .. trading or investing
5% .. That's how much $1,000 is of $20,000... and if the trade was held longer .. :
32.95
-1.76 (-5.07%)
this is where things would have been today .. So, please, be quiet and stop looking like a fool.
Risk is valued by a number of things :
> the underlying instrument
> the broad macro/micro factors
> the technical trend of the stock
Risk can be mitigated in many ways via Hedging
> Options
> Avging in.
> Shorting the broad market and going long particular instruments ...
etc etc.
The Amnt. of money you 'put up' to.........................
make an yet to be known but assumed amount of money is the least of things that defines how much 'risk' you are taking.
How much %'age gains you make on a block trade is typically what matters.
When faced w/ a trend signal that suggests you will end up -5% vs. taking 5% which one do you take bright guy?
How many times you turn over your full portfolio can compound those percent gains.. if you net 5% a trade and turn your portfolio over 5 times (due to how often you trade), you have effectively made : 27% gains by the end of the year.
What percentage of your total capital you use in a block trade is also what matters ...
Suffice to say, you don't know an ounce of what you are talking about and I know full well you know nothing about trading. So, if you're looking to make a snark comment/reply.. Try doing it with something you're familiar with. You look like a straight fool with what you just said.
You're right, trying to afford things you can't afford is pretty absurd. But calling people idiots because they are wealthy and can afford to buy real estate, unlike yourself, where ever they wish.....makes little sense.
Overpaying for an asset looks pretty d*m absurd to. People who do are idiots and it has nothing to do w/ wealth.. Want an example? Look at the housing bubble we just exited ... The U.S. foreclosure crisis, Beverly Hills-style http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46411361.../#.T4TNcplrOto
Ohhhh but I thought they were rich ???!?!?!?
"Some 180 houses in Beverly Hills, the storied Los Angeles enclave rich with Hollywood stars and music moguls, have been foreclosed on by lenders, scheduled for auction, or served with a default notice, the highest level since the 2008 financial crash, according to a Reuters analysis of figures compiled by RealtyTrac, which tracks foreclosures nationwide.
But the dynamics of the residential real estate collapse are very different in elite neighborhoods such as this. The majority of delinquent homeowners here owe more than $1 million. Many are walking away not because they can't pay, but because they judge it would be foolish to keep doing so."
Yeah, so .. A recap because you seem kind of slow : Overpaying for an asset is absurd .. whether you have $10,$10,000, $1million, $1 quadrillion... It's absurd and stupid.
What is even more absurd is a govt. that allows outside participants to flood a domestic market and cause home price inflation just so that they can get extra revenue for themselves ... Meanwhile sh*tting on the quality of life of all of the local residents.
That's the general idea. Also, please stop commenting on my wealth as you know nothing about it and has nothing to no bearing on the validity of what i just said.
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id
Hmm.....what "fantasy picture" am I trying to paint? All you're doing is whining that the bay area is expensive, do you think that is something people aren't already aware of?
All you are doing is trying to paint this picture that the only land that is of value is in California.. Substantiated by the number of boneheaded rich people our govt. panders to in order to line their pockets. Your elitist tone is seeping right off the tip of your fingers. If you understand/care about the real world impacts of the policy stipulated, there is almost every reason not to allow this .
From your tone, you have no understanding of the macro impacts high home prices have on QOL. The huge draw it has on discretionary income which fuels the economy .. You obviously have learned nothing from the epic housing bubbled we just went through ... So, to you, allowing outsized foreign money to flow into a supply constrained environment is great.. F*** yeah, lets run up the price of the asset (home) by 2x-3x .. See everyone, this place is desirable .. The prices are insane ..
^ Until the reality hits .. Home price has to be in-line w/ livable local wages.
Did you even watch the video and understand the impact it is having in Vancouver. Do you read about the report established on what is happening to San Francisco? Do you think beyond anything but : $$$$$ and people w/ it do wtf they want .. If you don't got it .. you suck .. and it sucks for you?
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id
Wow....where would everyone be without you stating the obvious. Gee, the coast is the most desirable area of California? You don't say!
No sh*t sherlock .. and allowing unmitigated outsized foreign flows into a supply constrained housing market unchecked will wreak havoc on the present 'U.S Residents' in that area.. Which is what my comments about this policy are about. But hell man, you see nothing wrong with it .. Run everyone out who can't afford it .. $800k homes.. Lets make em $1.6 million just cause.
This is the very reason govt. exists, to regulate and prevent such madness because it is not sustainable and has broader negative macro implications.. But nah' dawg.. You're not balling hard enough ..
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id
Regardless, the inland communities in California are comparable to many areas throughout the country. The point is, contrary to what you believe, there are plenty of safe communities, with good schools, with decent jobs, etc inland. Millions of folks are happily living in them.... Not your thing? Well...move somewhere else. Pretty simple.
"It's been the case since about 2003 that more people leave California than come to California from other states. "
Sorry, the broad trend disagrees w/ you and feels there are better places outside of the state... Eventually jobs go w/ it to .. As companies are no longer able to support the insane salaries necessary to grant one a middle class life in the bay area .... and tax loads are much less outside of California.
The solution thus far has been to outsource everything that isn't nailed down outside the country to offset the high salaries needed here in the bay... Good for California (which is probably all you care about) .. but sucks for the broader U.S ...
"In short, we are replacing our middle class with a rich elite and a burgeoning underclass."
Moderator cut: link removed, linking to competitor sites is not allowed
Every year I have been here it seems like more and more that's the path of California.. A rich elite w/ a huge underclass ... Enjoy the consequences of your view... At this rate, you're going to get exactly what you desire.
From your past commentary as you like to bring up my profile and take jabs .. Here ... lets get a run down of you :
. As I recall, you rent.. How old are you? Can't you afford a home yet being that old? Oh, it makes more sense to rent? I guess you just aren't wealthy enough...
Do you even have a family? Do you have kids? What exactly do you do for a living? How much money do you make a year? Do you trade/invest? Do you have an ounce of perspective or even know what you are talking about half the time?
Here, i'll answer for you : NO to all the above.
Yeah, I understand your argument, but if a place becomes too overpriced for a person or family to live they can always move. That's what we did...move to a cheaper location to go to school and build up a skill set to where we can compete in any metro, including New York.
People can still afford to live in any city they like (for the most part), they just have to give up certain amenities to do it. If you're a family who survives off a low wage, you'll have to share an apartment with another family or set of wage earners. Plenty of people do it in SF, NYC, LA etc already.
With CA's future being what it is from a tax and debt standpoint, I see no compelling reason to move within the state....
Away from the 'metro' doesn't get you away from California's broader issues...
Out of quality suburbs and off into hours away from my job inland doesn't get me away from California's high tax structure and longer term witch hunt of those w/ wealth : http://articles.latimes.com/2012/mar...-poll-20120326
Strong majority backs Jerry Brown's tax-hike initiative
USC DORNSIFE/TIMES POLL
Sixty-four percent of those surveyed said they supported the measure that the governor hopes to place on the November ballot. It would hike the sales tax and levies on upper incomes to help raise money for schools and balance the state's budget.
The 'metro' is expensive .. SF
The 'quality' suburbs 30min. from the major jobs are expensive ..
Inland suburbs are almost an hour away in insane rage inducing traffic ..
and you still don't get away from CA's high taxes and fiscal issues.
Fees upon fees upon tax upon special tax upon fees.. Even the moderator has commented on it and the same bandwagon crew arrives even trying to take a dump on him and the complete information he posts ...
In many ways, it makes sense to just leave California.. When that is expressed all hell breaks loose on the forum? Why .. Why are people taking it personal? Billion dollar businesses have left.. Are they poor? Do they not have wealth? .. There are reasons and when those reasons are stated.. People get bent out of shape... Why? ...
The middle class has been leaving the state .. Not moving inland .. There are no great jobs inland because genuises keep clustering them by their million dollar homes so its convenient for them and inconvenient for the rest of their work force. Commute times are insane. California has fiscal issues coming out of its arse... Is cutting K-12 spending.. College spending .. Highest gas prices in the country... Highest taxes in the country... Child care? What happens when you have to pay a babysitter huge $$$ because you know things are so expensive for them to live to? Everything gets scaled up and the more income you have relative to how much things costs makes you no better off than elsewhere outside CA .. What's the point? L.A. County could receive way less than expected in property taxes, estimates show - latimes.com
Deficits are seething .. Pension costs soaring .. With all that and other metros and suburbs across the country 2 and 3 times cheaper .. w/o the insane taxes and long term fiscal issues.. What's the draw? Bragging rights? .. If the metro is all the rage and its possible to live in a metro in state x vs. state y .. why the life pursuit to break your neck ? Because everyone claims its better? Because magazines write about it? Because all the propaganda movies/shows are shot in that location? What happened to thinking yourself ? What happened to creating cool/creating the company ... creating the vibe.. creating the venue.. Creating the 'amazing' as opposed to trying to pay top dollar to be around where someone hypes and says it is...
Are the majority of people followers? There are documented cases that yes.. Hollywood sets a trend and a lot of people follow it ...
Most times in life the optimal path is one you define for yourself and carve out for yourself.. Following the path everyone is taking usually gets you in less optimal situations...
The value proposition doesn't make sense to the majority .. The net outflow trend of the middle class proves it.. So, any colorful arguments against this understanding flies in the face of what the majority of middle class people are doing : Leaving California... In the past in America's history, it used to be said : GO WEST ! .. Nothing stays the same throughout time/history.. That has changed in terms of QOL and has shifted.. It's a good thing .. 4 people in a room might live swell.. cram 40 in it and things get stupid and uncomfortable .... There is an 'optimal' level.
And no matter how much you make, there are only 24 hours in a day .. and you're still in the same square box home as someone else.. Eating/sleeping/working just like everyone else.
I heard someone once say it's ironic how some of the brightest minds in the country are in Silicon Valley and due to costs and taxes are just barely getting by living unlike any other person in the U.S.. Just barely getting that mortgage paid .. Just barely saving.. Just barely affording a regular life.. Doing some of the same stuff every other joe blow is doing just at a higher relative cost.
I'm sorry that I live life eyes wide open. Sorry that I question everything.. So when someone tells me : Bro, you gotta live here.. You are living here in California or your just dead .. I have to laugh at that idea .. Especially when the cost of doing so makes no sense. If you have a million .. 2 million it still might not .. What other amazing things can you do w/ that money? Travel maybe. Buy time .. Start a business .. Not have to work a 9-5 .. but hey man, a box that costs $80,000 years ago now costs $800,000 .. I know what I'm gonna do .. Slave it out .. work a 9-5 .. work like crazy .. not enjoy life and buy that box .. So you know, i can be where its : HOT !
NYC is cool ..
SF is cool ..
but whatever, i wouldn't want to raise a family in either .... If I live cheap somewhere else and thus have tons of disposable income .. I can travel beyond Calif... I can see the world .. Go play in an ocean half way across the world ..
I mean, what is the amazing thing anyway? Mixed use development? restaurants/parks/nightlife/daylife .. jogging trails? LOL, that's everywhere...
I am just not the type to fall for hype ....
If people want to, that's their prerogative but the middle class trend is that they are choosing not to and what remains :
"Research by professor Bill Watkins of California Lutheran University over the past decade reveals that San Francisco is shedding its middle-class population at double the state rate. The city, however, is not losing low-income people at nearly the state's pace -- and is gaining wealthy residents at far more than California's overall rate. In short, we are replacing our middle class with a rich elite and a burgeoning underclass. Watkins' research also reveals that San Francisco is going gray. The number of city residents between ages 45 and 64 has climbed, while the count of those aged 20 to 44 has dropped. The city, it seems, has become a target destination for the wealthy and retirees. These are not the people who want to make sacrifices now to shore up the city's future.
"Wealthier people are consuming," Watkins says. "They don't want to build a future. They don't have a reason to invest in the community." For that matter, neither do young people -- because their futures likely involve moving out of San Francisco. According to Joel Kotkin, "San Francisco is Disneyland for adults, or a place people go until they grow up."
The stage is set for San Francisco to run on inertia. The city's poor are unable to effect a sea change; the young, nomadic population is uninterested; and the wealthy and older are unwilling."
This is the broader trend I see in California as a whole .. The longer term trend is clear and the stage is set.. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania <- irrational human behavior is all throughout history
Person A who buys before the mania, hypes the mania (i.e : you just gotta live here bro.. or life isn't worth living), and sells at the peak or rents =P gets off great ..
Person B who buys into the hype and nonsense gets owned.
The minority are People of type A .. The majority are type B.
Sorry for not buying into the hype/b.s .. Sure, its common place.. it's status quo.. and that's why I sound so 'out of this world' .. It's what a vast majority of people buy into .. and well ..
Look at what that has ended up in .. in history... Repeats itself over and over because the broader population never learns the fundamental lessons and general 'follow' others instead of lead themselves w/ critical thinking...
And it echos and echos :
Any guess what's up next? The Tech/Stock bubble all over again .. Web 3.0 .. it's gonna change the world .. and when the valley rotates back into 2001 when it resembled a ghost town complete w/ million dollar home defaults.... it'll be just another suburb .. unlike any other one in the U.S .. W/ all of these bubbles, they aren't possible unless someone follows .. unless a large group of people throw reasonable valuations to wind and subscribe to b.s justifications for irrational pricing (it's just soo amazing bro)... And no, lessons are ever learned..and in hindsight the vast majority are incapable of understanding the signs were all over the place... Because, as you see from several posters, some people have the inability to learn and think critically...
Last edited by yeahthatguy; 04-10-2012 at 08:10 PM..
By your ridiculous statement above, I know you have no understanding of what risks are .
Of course, but isn't this what you'd say, given your personality, if you had no real understanding of risk and trading? Yep....sorta funny...actually.
Regardless, as I said, if all you're doing is pretending to trade after the fact then risk really doesn't matter. I'm not sure why you think its impressive to make calls after they've happened and talk about them on a forum.
Funny, that all this typing and madness is caused by frustrations with mate selection. Primates are a funny bunch....
Last edited by user_id; 04-10-2012 at 09:58 PM..
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