Prop 13 (megatopic) (San Francisco, Pleasanton, Danville: brokers, theatre, relocating to)

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by lvmensch

The entire neighborhoods where I lived on both my stays in CA are virtually all still owned by the same people as were there 23 years ago when we left. There was some turnover in the 90s but almost none since.

My SIL is another. Bought a craftsmen cottage in good S. CA and lives there to this day. Paid a little less than 30K for it 60 years ago. Now worth about 2.3 million. They have added a MIL suite to the back and the kids have moved into the front.

I am in no way advocating abandoning P13. I voted for it when it was passed and have not changed my mind. I would however modify it closer to the NV version where the tax can go up enough to at least overcome inflation and commercial property has different rate of closure.

The present P13 is in fact widening the margin between the taxes paid by the new arrivals and that of those already there. I would think that eventually will break when it gets far enough out of bed.

I never said that there aren't large numbers of people who have been in their homes for decades, I was referring to 3,000 sq ft homes. At least where I live the 3,000 sq ft homes are mostly either very old and expensive mansions or tract homes in El Dorado Hills which are largely occupied by soccer moms & dads

The only two things I live about NV property tax is the split roll and the cap on annual increases. What I don't like is the BS that's involved with gains in appraised value over 3%, they abate it until your property value is flat or decreases and then make up for their "loss", so even if your home loses 1/3 of it's value you will have a 3% gain every year until they recover the abated amount. I recall you saying they don't do that, well maybe not in Clark County but they did in Washoe.

[horchata111]

Originally Posted by HereOnMars

That's the feeling I'm getting from this. Not only from comments here on CD but other places and forums, too. And it's not that I don't understand or have sympathy with the amount of taxes new homeowners are paying, either. It's the outrageous amounts of money people are spending on homes, these days. With that comes the higher taxes but you won't hear nary a peep out of Sacramento because lawmakers know that with higher home prices comes higher tax revenue and they're all about that money.

here's why prices are so high:

-speculation. with prop 13, even 30,000 taxes a yr may be cheap in 30 years
-ca is ca. maybe the best real estate in the world on the coast (south australia, mediterranean come close)
-non-recourse state. if markets crash and ppl who were leveraged based on a portfolio default, the bank cant come after their other assets to make up the difference. in NY, they can (this is why ny is so adamant about bringing back SALT i think)
-the opportunity for your kids to get a cheaper ivy-level education at the UCs, if youre upper middle class
-there are a f***ton of wealthy, mobile people globally and CA is a place to be, for sure
-there are likely amplifiction effects from people moving here simply because there is money.
-mexican food?

many of those factors, though, can change. id be on the lookout for defaulted properties in the event of a market crash.

[JJonesIII]

Originally Posted by lvmensch

The present P13 is in fact widening the margin between the taxes paid by the new arrivals and that of those already there. I would think that eventually will break when it gets far enough out of bed.

No reason to think it will break at all. And the current vacancy rates proves the point in the major metropolitan areas. You don't need to have a large amount of buyers with the current supply of houses. And those incomes clearly support the market. Prop 13, of course, being the great neutralizer. Those families earning the higher income levels can, and do, support the market. Those on fixed incomes and SS are able to stay in place (the perfect scenario). No need to try to encourage an even wider income disparity (which is what repealing Prop 13 will do).

[JJonesIII]

Originally Posted by horchata111

at a 3% rate of inflation the value of a dollar is almost halved every 20 years.

Exactly

[NewbieHere]

Originally Posted by horchata111

here's why prices are so high:

-speculation. with prop 13, even 30,000 taxes a yr may be cheap in 30 years
-ca is ca. maybe the best real estate in the world on the coast (south australia, mediterranean come close)
-non-recourse state. if markets crash and ppl who were leveraged based on a portfolio default, the bank cant come after their other assets to make up the difference. in NY, they can (this is why ny is so adamant about bringing back SALT i think)
-the opportunity for your kids to get a cheaper ivy-level education at the UCs, if youre upper middle class
-there are a f***ton of wealthy, mobile people globally and CA is a place to be, for sure
-there are likely amplifiction effects from people moving here simply because there is money.
-mexican food?

many of those factors, though, can change. id be on the lookout for defaulted properties in the event of a market crash.

The UCs now are much harder to get in than when my kids applied. Mostly first generation kids, like my cousin’s kid, kids from parents who didn’t go to college, who get into top UCs now.

[horchata111]

Originally Posted by JJonesIII

No reason to think it will break at all. And the current vacancy rates proves the point in the major metropolitan areas. You don't need to have a large amount of buyers with the current supply of houses. And those incomes clearly support the market. Prop 13, of course, being the great neutralizer. Those families earning the higher income levels can, and do, support the market. Those on fixed incomes and SS are able to stay in place (the perfect scenario). No need to try to encourage an even wider income disparity (which is what repealing Prop 13 will do).

it will only 'break' when CA voters collectively become dumb enough to think that the person who paid off a 30 year mortgage on a now-'valuable' house is the big-bad rich guy rather than the guy nextdoor who paid full-price (and is likely really worth 3x what they paid, at least). since CA voted down rent control, which is universally considered stupid policy, there is hope yet.

yes, i consider prop 13 good policy, actually great policy.

[horchata111]

Originally Posted by NewbieHere

The UCs now are much harder to get in than when my kids applied. Mostly first generation kids, like my cousin’s kid, kids from parents who didn’t go to college, who get into top UCs now.

first generation kids are US citizens. what is your point? they obviously worked harder than your kid

[NewbieHere]

Originally Posted by horchata111

first generation kids are US citizens. what is your point? they obviously worked harder than your kid

You need reading comprehension. You wrote upper middle class. My cousin’s family is anything but upper middle class. They are not even middle class. So stop passing your opinion as facts.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by horchata111

it will only 'break' when CA voters collectively become dumb enough to think that the person who paid off a 30 year mortgage on a now-'valuable' house is the big-bad rich guy rather than the guy nextdoor who paid full-price (and is likely really worth 3x what they paid, at least). since CA voted down rent control, which is universally considered stupid policy, there is hope yet.

yes, i consider prop 13 good policy, actually great policy.

Yep, protects long term residents who have paid taxes for decades and ... are still paying.


No crash or bust likely because even with the high prices there are not enough homes on the market to meet demand. Yes slowing a little, but that is normal.


I did read an article that builders are now building more entry level homes, though that includes Townhouses, Condos and basically Apts, not as man single family homes.

[horchata111]

Originally Posted by NewbieHere

You need reading comprehension. You wrote upper middle class. My cousin’s family is anything but upper middle class. They are not even middle class. So stop passing your opinion as facts.

my point was financial. if your parents are poor or even middle class, most reputable institutions will offer generous financial aid. some people however have parents who make 200k who have to fund multiple 60k/yr educations simultaneously if all their kids go to an ivy. a uc, though still expensive, can be less than half the price, with similar prestige/options.