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Being from Illinois, I was "positive" the state was going to show a loss of at least a half-million people, whereas the Census only showed a 18K decline from 2010. So who made the "mistake"? Was it a failure of the "news" over the past decade, or was it the data estimates from government agencies like...
Why are you sure that the Census count was inaccurate? Many people responded to it online or by mail.
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Originally Posted by Curly Q. Bobalink
During Covid, I sure wouldn't have allowed a Census taker into my home, I simply wouldn't have answered the door. So how many "estimates" vs. actual counts were made?
No one from the Census bureau was knocking on doors during 2020.
Location: Formerly Pleasanton Ca, now in Marietta Ga
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceece
People ARE leaving the state though. Lot's of them. Folks cashing out to all cash buyers who either flip, move in, rent out while increasing their RE portfolios. And plenty of non homeowners leaving for places they hope to be homeowners. It's ridiculous to deny it but it's not as if the state is going to empty out. Lot's of starry eyed folks will find their way here, even if it's for the short term.
Pretty fair and honest assessment. Adding working remotely to this may make more people move out.
Before someone throws out the lower cost of living is followed by the lower pay, not always. My friend worked for Cisco in the Bay Area. He moved to Raleigh North Carolina and got the exact same pay. He went from an apartment in San Jose to a beautiful new 3300 square foot home.
Pretty fair and honest assessment. Adding working remotely to this may make more people move out.
Before someone throws out the lower cost of living is followed by the lower pay, not always. My friend worked for Cisco in the Bay Area. He moved to Raleigh North Carolina and got the exact same pay. He went from an apartment in San Jose to a beautiful new 3300 square foot home.
Cisco is one of the companies that doesn't lower your salary when changing to a lower COL location (although you likely won't get annual raises as you'll be above the pay band). Most other companies do adjust your salary downward when taking account for different locations, although you could still come ahead in many cases.
Why are you sure that the Census count was inaccurate? Many people responded to it online or by mail.
I'm not sure at all, and that's the problem. All we know is, the estimated Census data we've been getting for the last several years in many cases (Illinois, Atlanta, DC, etc.) was wildly different than the actual 2020 count. So obviously, one of the two scenarios has to be wrong, and if they're capable of screwing up the estimates, who says they're not capable of screwing up the actual count itself? Especially when 2020 was such a screwed-up year with Covid, so many people supposedly fleeing the cities, etc.. It makes one wonder whether it wouldn't make sense to have a 2022 "redo", depending on cost, at least in the areas where the estimates were so different from the actual count.
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Originally Posted by CA4Now
No one from the Census bureau was knocking on doors during 2020.
I don't believe that's true. Again, only a reported 67% of respondents mailed back their Census forms in 2020, and that's fairly common in other years as well, I believe. So to determine what's going on with the other third of residents, the bureau (I'm assuming they hire local people from individual states) sends agents out to try and make contact with residents (maybe the telephone is their first attempt). I've got a buddy who owns a mobile home park, and he saw a guy knocking in numerous doors in the park, and one resident told him that it was a Census taker. I don't have any personal experience, probably because I sent my form back soon after it arrived. I wish more people did so, but it appears to be great distrust of the Government these days, and that's a problem.
In addition, there was supposedly a "privacy" rule in this year's Census that scrambles data somewhat - supposedly it doesn't change overall counts, but might make local numbers differ. I just don't get that, it seems like it's an opportunity for error. Throw in the fact that they "don't want to know" how many people in the country are here illegally, and it really throws shade over the whole event. I was looking for insight on the issue from others.
I'm not sure at all, and that's the problem. All we know is, the estimated Census data we've been getting for the last several years in many cases (Illinois, Atlanta, DC, etc.) was wildly different than the actual 2020 count. So obviously, one of the two scenarios has to be wrong, and if they're capable of screwing up the estimates, who says they're not capable of screwing up the actual count itself? Especially when 2020 was such a screwed-up year with Covid, so many people supposedly fleeing the cities, etc.. It makes one wonder whether it wouldn't make sense to have a 2022 "redo", depending on cost, at least in the areas where the estimates were so different from the actual count.
I don't believe that's true. Again, only a reported 67% of respondents mailed back their Census forms in 2020, and that's fairly common in other years as well, I believe. So to determine what's going on with the other third of residents, the bureau (I'm assuming they hire local people from individual states) sends agents out to try and make contact with residents (maybe the telephone is their first attempt). I've got a buddy who owns a mobile home park, and he saw a guy knocking in numerous doors in the park, and one resident told him that it was a Census taker. I don't have any personal experience, probably because I sent my form back soon after it arrived. I wish more people did so, but it appears to be great distrust of the Government these days, and that's a problem.
In addition, there was supposedly a "privacy" rule in this year's Census that scrambles data somewhat - supposedly it doesn't change overall counts, but might make local numbers differ. I just don't get that, it seems like it's an opportunity for error. Throw in the fact that they "don't want to know" how many people in the country are here illegally, and it really throws shade over the whole event. I was looking for insight on the issue from others.
Don't forget, the Census Bureau also has access to state records (DMV, Dept of Finance) and county records (Assessor, Registrar, Social Services) and probably municipal records as well, so it isn't as if the undertaking of getting an accurate count relies solely on the worker bee going from door-to-door.
I believe that's true and explains what happened in California, maybe the best indicator of your theory might be moving company, realtor, title company, and RE lawyer business for the period. I mean, Sacramento must be counting real estate transactions or utility transfers in the state, right?
But that really doesn't explain why the Census shocked so many people, because for the last ten years we were constantly getting fed headlines saying "Californians are leaving in droves!" which while not technically incorrect, does not tell the whole story. Being from Illinois, I was "positive" the state was going to show a loss of at least a half-million people, whereas the Census only showed a 18K decline from 2010. So who made the "mistake"? Was it a failure of the "news" over the past decade, or was it the data estimates from government agencies like the Census' annual estimates via the "American Community Survey", or was it the 2020 survey itself which is incorrect? Supposedly, only about 67% of citizens return their documents. During Covid, I sure wouldn't have allowed a Census taker into my home, I simply wouldn't have answered the door. So how many "estimates" vs. actual counts were made? Is it a transparent process, which clearly separates self-reported data from what Census takers or data analysts estimated?
One thing that bothers me, is that there's huge financial and political motivation to pad the count. If the process is not transparent and verifiable (and is easy to "fudge"), people are more likely to manipulate it (kind of like elections, but that's a different thread).
Bottom line, I'm more than a little suspicious, and sure would like to be reassured what they reported was accurate, and what percentage of error is expected and tolerated. Note that it HELPED my state, but if it was not accurate (or worse, fraudulent), it is not a desirable outcome.
I was a census enumerator, and if not for the people who refused to answer the door the count might have been much more accurate. PS We never went into anyone's home, we rang the bell stepped back 4-6 feet and stayed there during the interview
People ARE leaving the state though. Lot's of them. Folks cashing out to all cash buyers who either flip, move in, rent out while increasing their RE portfolios. And plenty of non homeowners leaving for places they hope to be homeowners. It's ridiculous to deny it but it's not as if the state is going to empty out. Lot's of starry eyed folks will find their way here, even if it's for the short term.
Let's hope those who are leaving are the ones who overuse apostrophes.
I was a census enumerator, and if not for the people who refused to answer the door the count might have been much more accurate. PS We never went into anyone's home, we rang the bell stepped back 4-6 feet and stayed there during the interview
Not trying to put you on the spot here, but do you believe the actual 2020 Census was accurate, and if so, by plus or minus how much? And if you do, why were the estimates made between the actual Census counts so far off for so many areas? What are those in charge of the Census saying about it? Is that common?
Apple's comment suggesting they have access to so many other records only magnifies my concern. Is the whole Census thing just an expensive crapshoot? You must have some good stories from your experience as an enumerator.
only a reported 67% of respondents mailed back their Census forms in 2020, and that's fairly common in other years as well, I believe.
That figure is from September, 2020.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy
I was a census enumerator, and if not for the people who refused to answer the door the count might have been much more accurate. PS We never went into anyone's home, we rang the bell stepped back 4-6 feet and stayed there during the interview
My daughter was an enumerator in the 2010 Census. They worked in teams and did go into people's homes.
Not trying to put you on the spot here, but do you believe the actual 2020 Census was accurate, and if so, by plus or minus how much? And if you do, why were the estimates made between the actual Census counts so far off for so many areas? What are those in charge of the Census saying about it? Is that common?
Apple's comment suggesting they have access to so many other records only magnifies my concern. Is the whole Census thing just an expensive crapshoot? You must have some good stories from your experience as an enumerator.
I can't speak about the census in any area other than the one where I worked. The last month that I worked it turned into a real mess. There was a lot of pressure to end the count by Sept. 30th and supervisors to interview occupants that to "speed things up" rather than go to individual apartments we should just get apartment managers to tell us the number of people in each apartment and write down 'refused' for all of the other data fields such as name age and ethnicity. If the manager didn't know they told us to write down either one or two occupants.
There were several bonuses offered just for turning in large numbers of completed cases with no regard for accuracy. And I was shocked by how many people refused to answer the door, or if they opened it they would swear and call us names. I had people answer the door pointing a gun at me and some people took their large aggressive dogs on short leashes to the door to 'warn us'. It was bizarre, and 90% of the people who were hostile toward us were not poor or illegals, they were middle to upper middle class homeowners.
When we started we were told that 67% of people in the area had responded by mail or online, so we needed to contact the remaining 33%. Toward the end of September they told us that there was only 1% that still needed to be enumerated. They wouldn't tell us where they got that number but given the number of people who were either never home or refused to talk to us I'm pretty sure that 15-20% were never enumerated.
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