Houston Could Pass Chicago as Third-Largest City in U.S. in Next Decade (safe neighborhoods, bankrupt)

[Dport7674]

Houston could move into second place and it would still be Houston. It still wouldn't be as 'cool' as Austin. And it still won't be as well known as Dallas.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by edsg25

or, in other words, Houston may pass up Chicago in population, but Chicagoland will continue to be far larger than than Metropolitan Houston.
And within its own Lone Star State, second place metro Houston (6,772,470) comes in well below Texas's largest metro area, the Metroplex of Dallas and Ft Worth (7,233,323) in 2016 estimates.

City population means little. San Francisco and Boston are small cities if measured by those within city limits. Yet these are major global centers, far more so than Houston. Why? Because SF's and Boston's population are meaningless. Both the Bay Area and Metro Boston have huge populations....and it is those populations that count.

"Naperville, etc.... than Chicago would definitely beat Houston and possibly Los Angeles." And Chicago would have passed LA in population if the vote for the San Fernando Valley (I believe there was a similar one for the harbor areas around San Pedro) had gone through and those areas had seceded from the city.

Would that have changed things? Not really. Metro LA would remain, by far, the second largest metropolitan area in the nation.

Our insane fixation on population and population growth and how it relates to the importance and viability of a city and metro area. What utter insanity. New York, our A #1, king of the hill, top of the heap city, has a population of some 8 million and a metro population of 20 million.

Let's crank up the growth machine and build the city's population to 12 million and the metro to 30 million (a 150% growth for both).......would the city and the region be better places for that growth? Would they be more functional, have a better quality of life?

And since shooting for the sky is part of the game, wouldn't Manhattan be better off with 50 new 100+ story buildings.

The only thing that exists with continual growth is cancer.....and it kills its host. Insanity.

Dallas, Houston, and Phoenix are growing at about 2% a year. That's incredible growth.

At the rate were are going, Chicagoland will lose all it's gains that it made at the start of this decade. The only other metro in the top 20 MSA's showing a loss in population according to the estimates is St Louis. The real scary number is the domestic migration rank. Look.

Originally Posted by DavePa

You do know Chicago's core probably hit 200,000 residents? Are you sure Houston is gonna catch up that fast --->Core to Core? Forget street-level vibrancy. That I place at .0000001% chance. Yeah its highly doubtful at best.

While large parts of it's South and West sides depopulate. As long as the core looks good right?

[Magicalmoe]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

While large parts of it's South and West sides depopulate. As long as the core looks good right?

People don't want to accept the fact that half the city depopulating is a major problem that will eventually if not already effect the entire city/metro. As long as new condos pop up in River North then the city must be thriving. As Chicago keeps becoming more segregated between rich and poor Chicago falls deeper into the death spiral. Chicago's middle class disappearing. Sad.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by Magicalmoe

People don't want to accept the fact that half the city depopulating is a major problem that will eventually if not already effect the entire city/metro. As long as new condos pop up in River North then the city must be thriving. As Chicago keeps becoming more segregated between rich and poor Chicago falls deeper into the death spiral. Chicago's middle class disappearing. Sad.

^^

I think it's more of Chicago's lower income that is leaving right now. Middle income earners are leaving Illinois in general

Illinois is a part of the country where, in general, during the recession, it held on to (people) who wanted to move to Sun Belt states. Now, it's losing them," said William Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution who analyzes census data.

"When you have a big state like Illinois, to lose population for three years in a row? That's cause for alarm," he added.

By most measures, Illinois' population will continue to sharply decline in the coming years as more residents call it quits on the state they call home. The Tribune last year surveyed dozens of former residents who had fled within the past five years, and all offered their own list of reasons for doing so. Common reasons included high taxes, the state budget stalemate, crime, the unemployment rate and the weather.

https://www.google.com/amp/www.chica...story,amp.html

[Dport7674]

Originally Posted by Magicalmoe

... As Chicago keeps becoming more segregated between rich and poor Chicago falls deeper into the death spiral. Chicago's middle class disappearing. Sad.

Don't be dramatic, it's boring.


Cities in the Midwest and northeast aren't seeing a death spiral, they're seeing the results of a southwest exodus. An exodus that won't continue indefinitely. 100 yrs ago everyone moved north but it wasn't exactly the nail in the coffin for the South.

Don't feel sorry for the poor segregated Chicagoans. Feel sorry for the people stuck in traffic in Phoenix.

Besides, if enough people leave Chicago, real estate prices will fall, and a new generation of Big 10 alumni can move in. Teacher said "Every time a bell rings another Iowan moves to Chicago"

[DavePa]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

Dallas, Houston, and Phoenix are growing at about 2% a year. That's incredible growth.

At the rate were are going, Chicagoland will lose all it's gains that it made at the start of this decade. The only other metro in the top 20 MSA's showing a loss in population according to the estimates is St Louis. The real scary number is the domestic migration rank. Look.

While large parts of it's South and West sides depopulate. As long as the core looks good right?

When profits are to be made? The South and West will rise faster. But they never will defeat winters toll on migration patterns for years to come. Chicago has most gentrifying neighborhoods lose population as it transforms. Gangs are the real barrier today. If the demographics do not change? Chicago and other cities will decline again. Corporate America wants to go where their profits are greatest and wages paid are lowest. You as a god citizen will go where they go to work.

Moving TO THE JOBS was always the American way. If the lower-skilled jobs head more south in manufacturing left in the States? It is expected as a Great American to go where youth hint says you need to follow them. Not stay put. Right?

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by Dport7674

Don't feel sorry for the poor segregated Chicagoans. Feel sorry for the people stuck in traffic in Phoenix.

I was just in Phoenix. Traffic is no different there than here. If anything it's worse here.

Originally Posted by DavePa

When profits are to be made? The South and West will rise faster. But they never will defeat winters toll on migration patterns for years to come. Chicago has most gentrifying neighborhoods lose population as it transforms. Gangs are the real barrier today. If the demographics do not change? Chicago and other cities will decline again. Corporate America wants to go where their profits are greatest and wages paid are lowest. You as a god citizen will go where they go to work.

Moving TO THE JOBS was always the American way. If the lower-skilled jobs head more south in manufacturing left in the States? It is expected as a Great American to go where youth hint says you need to follow them. Not stay put. Right?

True and just like the article I linked above said as to why are people moving

The Tribune last year surveyed dozens of former residents who had fled within the past five years, and all offered their own list of reasons for doing so. Common reasons included high taxes, the state budget stalemate, crime, the unemployment rate and the weather

I too plan on moving but it won't be for another 15 years when I get my pension (it's a teachers pension so I don't even know if it will be around by then). No reason to stay here when the taxes on my home have nearly tripled since when I bought it in 2002 to over 10,000 yet the value of it has gone up only by around 20%.

Destination same as everyone else. Texas, Florida or maybe Arizona. I already have a beautiful house in San Antonio that I rent out (bigger than what I have here with taxes under 2000), and also looking to invest in either in the Tampa area or around Phoenix.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

^^

I think it's more of Chicago's lower income that is leaving right now. Middle income earners are leaving Illinois in general







https://www.google.com/amp/www.chica...story,amp.html

This isn't true. You've seen ACS data. We're BLEEDING working class and lower class residents. We're also losing blacks to the south. Middle income and upper income households are on the rise THROUGHOUT the area. The population decreased and median incomes went up!

The population decline isn't favorable, but New York City/State were here before and look where they are now. Ebbs and flows are a real thing. There are some issues for Chicago and Illinois to work through, but there are also a great deal of strengths that put the region on the world stage. It's easy to forget that...

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

This isn't true. You've seen ACS data. We're BLEEDING working class and lower class residents. We're also losing blacks to the south. Middle income and upper income households are on the rise THROUGHOUT the area. The population decreased and median incomes went up!

What did I say that isn't true? I said that the city is losing many of it's lower to lower middle income residents. Illinois in general is losing it's middle income as well.


And of course median income would rise when 200,000 mainly lower income residents left in the 2010 census.

But on the other hand

Millionaires are leaving Chicago, report says

Chicago was among four cities worldwide with the biggest flight of millionaires.

The population decline isn't favorable, but New York City/State were here before and look where they are now. Ebbs and flows are a real thing. There are some issues for Chicago and Illinois to work through, but there are also a great deal of strengths that put the region on the world stage. It's easy to forget that...

Of course it's not favorable. It should be alarming when all the other big cities and almost every large metropolitan area is gaining yet we are losing. Anyone trying to downplay this phenomenon is in denial as to what economic conditions exist in this region when compared to the rest of the US. We've always bled domestic migrants, but international migrants and birthrates made up for the loss. Now that's not enough. Furthermore, we aren't the international magnet we once were. Or at least, there are other choices for immigrants. DC, Miami now have more international migrants that we do. Maybe Houston and Dallas?

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

What did I say that isn't true? I said that the city is losing many of it's lower to lower middle income residents. Illinois in general is losing it's middle income as well.


And of course median income would rise when 200,000 mainly lower income residents left in the 2010 census.

But on the other hand

Millionaires are leaving Chicago, report says

Have you ever actually read the study that the Tribune article is based upon? It is laughably bad. The source of information for that study is a no name South African company that surveyed of 800 people around the globe and media articles.

Look at the ACS. The City of Chicago's one of the fastest growing income levels is the $100,000+ household. The $200,000+ household is growing even faster.