Houston Could Pass Chicago as Third-Largest City in U.S. in Next Decade (Normal: appointed, tornadoes)
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
On a side note, I think ATL's crime rate is just as bad, if not worse, than Chicago's.
I am from Atlanta, and yes the crime rate there is higher than Chicago. Atlanta is a very ghetto/confederate hate filled city, which is not good. I'm sure you all heard about the criminal who burned down the bridge on interstate 85 last week which crippled the whole city. Unlike Chicago neighborhoods, crime in Atlanta is all over the place.
The article below is from 2015, but you can see the murder rate in Atlanta is higher than Chicago.
Lol It's just statistics.... If Chicagoland was gaining people you would be all over it, boasting... As would I. Now that the trend is reverse you downplay it/and or make exaggerated comments about doom and gloom instead of discussing reality..
Is this happening in the NYC area? No LA? No
DC? No
Bay Area? No
Boston? No
Phillly? No
Dallas? Hell no
Houston Hell no
Phoenix Hell no
What other metros are seeing a similar population trend? St Louis and Detroit.
More of the same which is the problem. Domestic out-migration accelerates. International migrants don not see the area as unique anymore when compared to a dozen other metro areas, and slowing birth rate can't make up the difference so the metro area will continue to stagnate, while areas such as DC/Baltimore and San Fran/Bay area catch up or surpass us (as will the city of Houston).
We are the losing/stagnating and that is of a problem. Face reality, there is an unhealthy socioeconomic condition that needs to be addressed by our elected officials.
Since the key point you make for the creation of the thread is? A growing Houston by population adding all that's good and in vibrancy vs. a Chicago losing population and the bad added including declines and perhaps its vibrancy?
Then to compare how UNLIKE Chicago is to NYC as to say Chicago = declining while NYC = growth and opposite of declining? I offer this....
Is this happening to the NYC region. That is a YES. Links recently out as census estimates are showing more alarming facts of the NYC region happening very quickly.
What’s happening to New York City is a microcosm of what’s happening around the country—the hollowing out of the U.S. city.
Net domestic migration to New York City metro area (which includes the five boroughs plus slivers of New Jersey and Pennsylvania) is down by a whopping 900,000 people since 2010. That means that, since 2010, almost a million more people have left New York for somewhere else in America than have moved to New York from another U.S. metro—more than any other metro in the country.
There are lots of new immigrants and rich people in New York, but there are fewer dead-center families.
More than 1 million people moved out of the New York area to other parts of the country since 2010, a rate of 4.4 percent — the highest negative net migration rate among the nation’s large population centers, US Census records show.
The number of people leaving the region — which includes parts of New Jersey, Connecticut, the lower Hudson Valley and Long Island — in one year swelled from 187,034 in 2015 to 223,423 in 2016, while the number of international immigrants settling in the tristate area dwindled from 181,551 to 160,324 over the same period, records show.
So there is a bigger Fish in Chicagolands boat too. A shrinking metro.
Since the key point you make for the creation of the thread is? A growing Houston by population adding all that's good and in vibrancy vs. a Chicago losing population and the bad added including declines and perhaps its vibrancy?
Um, I thought you were done commenting?
No. Houston is growing in leaps and bounds we know this. I created this thread because I was surprised to see how fast Houston is catching up with us..... What I am concerned with, and the reason for me creating this thread a while back, is why Chicago city proper was not growing, and even worse now, the metro area is not growing. Spin it anyway you want. It's not positive news. You can claim victory in a elitist sort of way that our losses are mainly do to lower socioeconomic groups being priced out, or scared out of the South and West sides as the main contributor to us losing population. I still don't see that as a positive. And with our MSA now in negative losses, you can bet a large number of empty nesters and young middle class people are also looking South and West.
Btw, that sarcastic remark you made about me hurrying up and moving to Houston didn't earn you any points.
As I stated when I collect my pension, Texas, Florida, or Arizona will be my destination as it is for millions of others... But that's not for another 15+ years most likely.... And I probably will keep my condo on S. Michigan Ave so I can come back and visit.
Quote:
Then to compare how UNLIKE Chicago is to NYC as to say Chicago = declining while NYC = growth and opposite of declining? I offer this....
Is this happening to the NYC region. That is a YES. Links recently out as census estimates are showing more alarming facts of the NYC region happening very quickly.
What’s happening to New York City is a microcosm of what’s happening around the country—the hollowing out of the U.S. city.
Net domestic migration to New York City metro area (which includes the five boroughs plus slivers of New Jersey and Pennsylvania) is down by a whopping 900,000 people since 2010. That means that, since 2010, almost a million more people have left New York for somewhere else in America than have moved to New York from another U.S. metro—more than any other metro in the country.
There are lots of new immigrants and rich people in New York, but there are fewer dead-center families.
More than 1 million people moved out of the New York area to other parts of the country since 2010, a rate of 4.4 percent — the highest negative net migration rate among the nation’s large population centers, US Census records show.
The number of people leaving the region — which includes parts of New Jersey, Connecticut, the lower Hudson Valley and Long Island — in one year swelled from 187,034 in 2015 to 223,423 in 2016, while the number of international immigrants settling in the tristate area dwindled from 181,551 to 160,324 over the same period, records show.
Already addressed this on the previous page. NYC and it's MSA is still growing even though out migration has increased, gaining almost 100,000 from 2014 to 2015 with the city gaining half of that.. Even Philly which was stagnant for a long time is seeing some growth
Quote:
So there is a bigger Fish in Chicagolands boat too. A shrinking metro.
In the long run the Northeast and the Midwest won't be able to compete in terms of attracting migrants with the South/West. I just don't understand why we have to be the first to lose in this...
Houston's county and Phoenix saw the largest growth last year. I was just in Phoenix... My inlaws live there most of the year now. I go every spring and continue to see unbelievable growth.
Oil prices didn't hit them as hard as they thought
Quote:
After eight straight years of boom - adding more new residents than any county in the nation - Harris County in 2016 felt some of the oil bust's sting.
The county gained a total of about 56,600 people last year, a decline of 37 percent from the previous year, placing it behind Arizona's Maricopa County, which added nearly 81,400 new residents.
Quote:
"I expected the numbers to come in a lot lower," said Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research for the Greater Houston Partnership, an economic development organization. "That we had any in-migration when the region was losing jobs is remarkable."
He said the surge in foreign residents could include Americans who were laid off from oil and gas companies with operations abroad or those who returned to the Houston head offices as corporations cut cost.
"But frankly, people are still coming here, and it makes no difference, they see it as a place of opportunity regardless of the oil and gas industry," Jankowski said. "After a while it starts to feed on itself. … the international community is so large here that it's going to continue to grow regardless of what's happening elsewhere in the economy.
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 04-06-2017 at 08:35 AM..
OMG of course Houston is growing. Merely Dallas/Ft Worth even more? Unaffected at all by Oil stagnation.
My final point ( plessze let it be right) is pre-2010 stats people use to use to say here ----> see NYC region is growing CHICAGOLAND is doing the declining.
But if you actually read the links OUT THIS WEEK coincidence by the release of census estimates before the 2020 actual census. SHOWS MIGHTY NYC REGION IN DA SAME BOAT NOW.
I surely clearly could never say Houston isn't growing. But those who say NYC'S METRO IS?? Are now in need of the correction.
All my post intended. I saw you post NOT NYC metro as if just Chicägoland . Sorry that needs a new reality to be noted.
Sorry if it says CHICAGOLAND isn't alone and not more like a booming Houston metro.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
lol it's just statistics.... If chicagoland was gaining people you would be all over it, boasting... As would i. Now that the trend is reverse you downplay it/and or make exaggerated comments about doom and gloom instead of discussing reality..
is this happening in the nyc area? No Change to a YES now la? No
dc? No
bay area? No
boston? No
phillly? No
dallas? Hell no
houston hell no
phoenix hell no
what other metros are seeing a similar population trend? St louis and detroit.Add NYC REGION NOW TOO
Net domestic migration to New York City metro area (which includes the five boroughs plus slivers of New Jersey and Pennsylvania) is down by a whopping 900,000 people since 2010. Links to respected News sources in my previous post out this week.
Guess Manhattan's growth still says declines NOW TOO if Chicago's core growths do also as the region overall does?
Houston region is certainly still growing. But was to pass Chicago as soon as 2020. As a older thread is titled. That is now sometime by 2030. I do not think Houston's core will even be close to Chicago's even then. I'm not sure if the whole region will prove a superiority then either by then? Just saying by opinion.
NYC's losses too are NOT merely my opinion. OK
OMG of course Houston is growing. Merely Dallas/Ft Worth even more? Unaffected at all by Oil stagnation.
My final point ( plessze let it be right) is pre-2010 stats people use to use to say here ----> see NYC region is growing CHICAGOLAND is doing the declining.
I've been following Chicago's population data since 1980. During the 2000's I was very optimistic on our regional growth as the US census estimates continuously showed annual positive growth. The census estimates throughout the 2000's even showed stable population for the city of Chicago. Of course when 2010 came out the city lost 200,000 people BUT the Chicagoland area still grew. Now the census estimates are not showing positive growth for the region. And by judging the accuracy of the last census the current "stable" population of the city (like the estimates showed throughout the 2000's), I think that in 2020, the city will register another decline.
Quote:
But if you actually read the links OUT THIS WEEK coincidence by the release of census estimates before the 2020 actual census. SHOWS MIGHTY NYC REGION IN DA SAME BOAT NOW.
Really you don't have to use cap locks.
Quote:
I surely clearly could never say Houston isn't growing. But those who say NYC'S METRO IS?? Are now in need of the correction.
All my post intended. I saw you post NOT NYC metro as if just Chicägoland . Sorry that needs a new reality to be noted.
Sorry if it says CHICAGOLAND isn't alone and not more like a booming Houston metro.
Net domestic migration to New York City metro area (which includes the five boroughs plus slivers of New Jersey and Pennsylvania) is down by a whopping 900,000 people since 2010. Links to respected News sources in my previous post out this week.
Guess Manhattan's growth still says declines NOW TOO if Chicago's core growths do also as the region overall does?
Based on the census estimates NYC's MSA is still showing positive growth, but out migration is catching up with them as well.
Quote:
. New York-Newark lost 223,000 people in 2016, compared to an average of 158,000 between 2010 and 2015.
Houston region is certainly still growing. But was to pass Chicago as soon as 2020. As a older thread is titled. That is now sometime by 2030. I do not think Houston's core will even be close to Chicago's even then. I'm not sure if the whole region will prove a superiority then either by then? Just saying by opinion.
NYC's losses too are NOT merely my opinion. OK
Domestic migration patterns change on the fly. The Northeast and Midwest will probably be net losers for the next 10 to 20 years. Things will get interesting once automation takes grasp on "unprofessional" work. It's also important to note that most of Houston's growth isn't the result of domestic migration. It's immigration and a high birth rate. Both are slowing in this country, so it'll be interesting to see what happens there.
Domestic migration patterns change on the fly. The Northeast and Midwest will probably be net losers for the next 10 to 20 years.Things will get interesting once automation takes grasp on "unprofessional" work. It's also important to note that most of Houston's growth isn't the result of domestic migration. It's immigration and a high birth rate. Both are slowing in this country, so it'll be interesting to see what happens there.
International migrations saves NYC and LA (along with births) saves them from have losing population. We aren't attracting enough to off set losses like we did in the 1990's when the influx Mexican migration in the area was enough to grow both the city and the metro as shown in the 2010 census. Mexican migration has slowed dramatically since then, African American out migration has accelerated dramatically, and thus we are losing people.
Even in 20 years time if the type of jobs available change, I don't see a reason as to why the trend South and West will reverse back to the Midwest and East. No "unprofessional work" in all areas of the county still means that the South and West has a climate that will attract more people than here (especially retired people).
International migrations saves NYC and LA (along with births) saves them from have losing population. We aren't attracting enough to off set losses like we did in the 1990's when the influx Mexican migration in the area was enough to grow both the city and the metro as shown in the 2010 census. Mexican migration has slowed dramatically since then, African American out migration has accelerated dramatically, and thus we are losing people.
Even in 20 years time if the type of jobs available change, I don't see a reason as to why the trend South and West will reverse back to the Midwest and East. No "unprofessional work" in all areas of the county still means that the South and West has a climate that will attract more people than here (especially retired people).
There's no way to know for sure, but climate change and automation will push people to the Midwest and non-coastal cities of the NE. Climate change is easy enough to understand. Rising temperatures and sea levels, worsening storms, etc. will have greater impact on a place like Houston than Chicago. Automation is where things get interesting. The types of jobs fueling job growth in the south are either low wage service jobs (national trend) or low-skill manufacturing work. The latter is easily automated. Any future job growth will be for the highly skilled or specialized. Cities like Chicago (and much of the NE and parts of the west) excel in this department (even if job growth is slower these days) and will attract international and domestic migrants looking for jobs.
There's no way to know for sure, but climate change and automation will push people to the Midwest and non-coastal cities of the NE. Climate change is easy enough to understand. Rising temperatures and sea levels, worsening storms, etc. will have greater impact on a place like Houston than Chicago. Automation is where things get interesting. The types of jobs fueling job growth in the south are either low wage service jobs (national trend) or low-skill manufacturing work. The latter is easily automated.
And yet we aren't seeing worsening storms hitting the US coasts
Sea level rise currently is about 3mm per year. I doubt people are going to sell their condos in Manhattan or Miami Beach any time soon.
And if you believe the climate model projections (I don't. Not in the time frame given at least) Chicago will have summers more like Texas by the 2080's
Quote:
• Chicago would experience more than 70 days per summer with highs over 90 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) and a month of days with highs over 100°F.
• Chicago would face at least two heat waves per summer like the one that killed hundreds in Chicago in 1995, and one heat wave every other summer like the even deadlier European heat wave of 2003
Any future job growth will be for the highly skilled or specialized. Cities like Chicago (and much of the NE and parts of the west) excel in this department (even if job growth is slower these days) and will attract international and domestic migrants looking for jobs.
Yes we do excel in this department. However in 30-40 years time, I'd imagine that there will be growth in highly/specialized skilled labor throughout the sunbelt as well.
^ It's more than just heat and sea level rise. Both will have adverse impacts though. The intensity of storms, droughts, etc. that will have the biggest impact. Houston is already incredibly susceptible to flooding. The private sector won't even provide flood insurance in the area because it's impossible to make any money. This, coupled with heat and an rising sea levels (look into the positive feedback loop) spells disaster sooner than some may think. I'm honestly expecting to regularly see Chicago in the 50s in January in my lifetime. That's no bueno.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
