Breaking: Lori Lightfoot is officially out as Mayor of Chicago. As Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson advance to a runoff. (Kell: crimes, roughest)

[Hiruko]

Originally Posted by BRU67

Now let me shift to the left ;-) Sadly, I think a lot of conservatives (and most lefties) think black voters are plain dumb and will just vote for a candidate who looks like them. I strongly disagree and think you're right. A lot of black voters in Chicago are very worried (rightly so) about crime. So I don't see Johnson "cleaning house" in those precincts. He did horribly IMO on that issue last night and assuaged no fears. The Sun Times ran cover for him there this morning but the voters will ask "what's he going to do about crime?" They'll either find no answer or a very insufficient one.

I mean, yes, he may get the majority, but I do not think by a landslide. We will see of course.

I do not think that African-American/Black voters are dumb and I do not think they vote merely based on racial affinity. African-American voters do vote on issues and tend to hold more progressive views on most public policies. They are much more likely to see crime as a problem of resources rather than of family and community despite evidence to the contrary. This aligns them better with the left-of-center movement on criminal justice.

As a more moderate-to-conservative person, I think that many African-American voters, especially black female voters, get wrapped up in inaccurate impressions of politicians that exist outside of the Democratic Party's framework. Black male voters are slightly more politically diverse according to most national polling and my anecdotal experience confirms that. I would expect a gender gap, but I do not know how significant it will be because I do not believe that this will be any kind of high-turnout election.

Regarding Chicago specifically, I think that the Democratic Party framework here has historically encouraged highly-racialized voting and political behavior. We just saw this with ward redistricting where black, Hispanic, and Asian interest groups tried to tear each other apart for the sake of having racialized representation at the City Council. There is an attitude among many Chicagoans that each "community" needs a piece of a pie that is not growing. The Johnson campaign and coalition has already taken significant steps to inject race and partisanship into the race.

Again, I think Vallas has a great shot at becoming mayor, but it will depend upon actual turnout and Johnson's ability or inability to unite the traditional coalition that wins elections for the Democratic Party. Numerically, Vallas has to peel off a significant number of people who would normally favor a candidate like Johnson and make sure that voter turnout is extremely high in the more conservative precincts in the Bungalow Belt and the affluent precincts in and around the Near North Side, Lincoln Park, and adjacent areas.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Bitey

Johnson will get the majority of the black vote. But I don't think it will be 80%+ of the black vote as some might expect. I'd wager more in the 60-65% range. Willie Wilson's endorsement certainly doesn't hurt.

Willie Wilson and Jesse White. Big endorsements. Gery Chico helps too. I am very curious to see what Lightfoot and Chuy do. Lightfoot would on the surface favour Johnson but will she endorse given her battles with the CTU and animosity towards Preckwinkle? Basically, Johnson is the CTU and Preckwinkle's revenge for embarrassing them. Pride v. Party? We'll see what prevails.

Chuy is a progressive and is much more aligned with Johnson philosophically. But again, the CTU and the Preckwinkle machine essentially s-rewed him. So will he swallow his pride to join his comrades? If he doesn't, I think Vallas will win Hispanic wards big.

I don't think any national Democrats will touch this one. They have a choice between a defund the police socialist (whose stances they're trying to distance themselves from for '24) and someone being painted by the Johnson campaign and some Chicago media as a Republican right wing 1/6 extreme Trumper who loves billionaires like Griffin, will boot poor black and brown students from their schools and fire black teachers, and wants to stop women from getting an abortion.

Next debate, we're going to do a drinking game where you have to take a drink every time Johnson says "Griffin," "DeSantis," "Citadel" (I guess we don't want your jobs or millions in philanthropy if you're of the wrong political persuasion), "Republican," or "right to choose." I will have light beer, as otherwise I'll be on the floor 15 minutes in!

[Kmanshouse]

It's all extremely fascinating. The racial element, the left vs right WITHIN the Dem party here. Etc.

The comment above about removing all police $$ would only increase social program dollars by 10% is very eye opening, if true.

[Cool Arrow]

Originally Posted by Kmanshouse

It's all extremely fascinating. The racial element, the left vs right WITHIN the Dem party here. Etc.

The comment above about removing all police $$ would only increase social program dollars by 10% is very eye opening, if true.

Chicago has been a segregated city for decades. MLK said it was one of the most racist cities he's ever been to. Hispanics live with other Hispanics, Blacks with other Blacks, Whites with other Whites, so it's not surprising that voting goes along racial lines. I had a relative that worked in city hall in the early 2000s and they said that they had a few coworkers that would cross racial lines but the majority hung out with similar races.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Kmanshouse

It's all extremely fascinating. The racial element, the left vs right WITHIN the Dem party here. Etc.

The comment above about removing all police $$ would only increase social program dollars by 10% is very eye opening, if true.

Admittedly, not all of the County health fund is social services of course, though it is related. Nor is all the CPS budget, though I'd argue most is in practicality given the nature of Chicago Public Schools. But I'm not including charitable spending either. I mean, Catholic Charities, for example, is huge. So I bet 10% is very close to what the actual cumulative increase would be, if not possibly lower.

Of course, the reason I don't know for sure is because no one talks about that. It just blows my mind we're not talking about how to more efficiently spend all that money already available for social services. I mean, it's not even mentioned!! Instead, the sole focus is on the police budget, which is a pittance in the big pool of social spending.

The racial element within the Democratic party is not at all surprising. I'm a die hard Dem and have been lamenting this for some time now. I have very little in common with someone like Brandon Johnson, Sigcho-Lopez, Ramirez-Rosa, etc. They are not Democrats. They just found a receptive party who's too afraid to speak out against them and call them what they are. If you dare disagree with them, you are absolutely not immune to their attacks, even if you are a Democrat. Vallas is learning this. He just needs to stay on point and hopefully can prevail.

[Hiruko]

Originally Posted by BRU67

The racial element within the Democratic party is not at all surprising. I'm a die hard Dem and have been lamenting this for some time now. I have very little in common with someone like Brandon Johnson, Sigcho-Lopez, Ramirez-Rosa, etc. They are not Democrats. They just found a receptive party who's too afraid to speak out against them and call them what they are. If you dare disagree with them, you are absolutely not immune to their attacks, even if you are a Democrat. Vallas is learning this. He just needs to stay on point and hopefully can prevail.

I am not sure how old you are, but the Democratic Party has been a coalition party since the New Deal era. The Democratic coalition has changed significantly since the 1960s. However, since the 1990s, it has been largely the same major demographic groups: Racial and ethnic minorities, the young and unmarried, middle-income college graduates ("white progressives"), and public employees. I date back to the 1990s and I feel that this fractiousness has been on display for my entire life.

Pew has a good breakdown of the ideological factions within the Democratic Party. There has definitely been a shift in power toward the more progressive factions in practice. However, the so-called Democratic Mainstays (more moderate voters) remain the plurality of voters and those are also the voters most likely to be of minority background within the Democratic coalition. Media and popular culture downplay it, but I think that it is very obvious that the Democratic Party and the progressive movement have used race as a political weapon just as the Republican Party and the conservative movement have been constantly accused of since the 1960s.

[Milwaukee City]

Nothing will change...next.

[SciFiNerd1]

Originally Posted by toodie

If Jonson gets in, put a fork in Chicago. I grew up in Chicagoland and remember what the city used to be. I think if King of Woke gets in, this city will soon be on its deathbed. I used to walk all over downtown alone without fear. No more. What a loss for a beautiful city.

Are you telling me that safe parts of Chicago are no longer safe due to crime spilling into the areas resulting in many crossfires at the wrong place and wrong time? That is very sad. I never felt unsafe in Chicago before I left in 2007.

Are they still gang related with Blacks and Hispanics competing each other for territory? Please forgive me if I seem to be clueless.

[Hiruko]

Originally Posted by SciFiNerd1

Are you telling me that safe parts of Chicago are no longer safe due to crime spilling into the areas resulting in many crossfires at the wrong place and wrong time? That is very sad. I never felt unsafe in Chicago before I left in 2007.

Are they still gang related with Blacks and Hispanics competing each other for territory? Please forgive me if I seem to be clueless.

There is a lot of property crime everywhere, and there has been an increase in robberies and carjackings in more affluent community areas of Chicago. There do seem to be more gang related incidents in the Loop and Near North Side than there were several years ago. However, I can't recall innocent bystanders being caught in the crossfire outside of the roughest neighborhoods—and I'm not sure those stories are very accurate.

[toodie]

Originally Posted by SciFiNerd1

Are you telling me that safe parts of Chicago are no longer safe due to crime spilling into the areas resulting in many crossfires at the wrong place and wrong time? That is very sad. I never felt unsafe in Chicago before I left in 2007.

Are they still gang related with Blacks and Hispanics competing each other for territory? Please forgive me if I seem to be clueless.

Just last night a woman was stabbed to death in the loop. Last week a Chase bank was robbed in the loop and gunfire broke out downtown.

Some stores on the Mag mile have left the area because of smash and grab looting. Cars are being stolen from parking garages.


It's not only gang member crossfire, it's carjackings, robbery of people walking down the street and approached by armed groups, usually several different attacks by the same group. The parts of Chicago that used to be safe are not at all like they used to be.



As far as gangs go, I saw a map of the US indicating places where drug cartel from Mexico have moved in, and they are now taking over the gang activity so gangs are the cartels' subcontractors and do what they're told. I hope that is investigated.


This article is from last year.
QUOTE: lRecently, there have been robberies, carjackings, smash-and-grab burglaries, and even a shooting near the Magnificent Mile. https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-crim...rict/11578684/
And this is from 2022.
QUOTE: Police Promise More Patrols With Data Showing Increasing Crime Rates in Loop
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/loca...-loop/2823568/