Are you worried about the P&G proxy vote? (Cincinnati: sales, home sales)

[jmecklenborg]

Stick a fork in it. It'll take 5 years for the impact to start being felt but P&G will soon be a much smaller company headquartered somewhere else. Inevitably it will be a city with higher taxes and a higher cost of living, but the tea partiers will continue to argue that we need lower taxes to "attract businesses".

[WILWRadio]

If what Peltz wants happens, it will change the entire business landscape of the Cincinnati area. And the number of jobs that are tied in from ancillary industries and suppliers is going to be whittled down considerably. Hope this doesn't happen. It will have a very negative impact for everyone in this region for a long time.

[SalamanderSmile]

I think this will devastate Cincinnati, hopefully I am wrong.

[WILWRadio]

They still have to vote on what Peltz has proposed. Since the apparent recount showed a very slim margin of victory there is still no assurances that P&G will be dismantled at least at the start.

[jmecklenborg]

P&G has about 11,000 employees in the Cincinnati metro. That's fewer than The University of Cincinnati. If half of the employees disappear in the event that the HQ leaves, it won't spell doom for the metro economy, but it will shave the high-end housing market, some niche businesses (private jets, for example), and a lot of corporate sponsorships for cultural institutions.

The big problem for the city will be a glut of downtown and suburban office space, so we wouldn't see any new office construction for quite some time.

[SalamanderSmile]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

P&G has about 11,000 employees in the Cincinnati metro. That's fewer than The University of Cincinnati. If half of the employees disappear in the event that the HQ leaves, it won't spell doom for the metro economy, but it will shave the high-end housing market, some niche businesses (private jets, for example), and a lot of corporate sponsorships for cultural institutions.

The big problem for the city will be a glut of downtown and suburban office space, so we wouldn't see any new office construction for quite some time.

It's more than just employees it's well paid employees, but my bigger concern is their local corporate philanthropy drying up.

[Coseau]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Stick a fork in it. It'll take 5 years for the impact to start being felt but P&G will soon be a much smaller company headquartered somewhere else. Inevitably it will be a city with higher taxes and a higher cost of living, but the tea partiers will continue to argue that we need lower taxes to "attract businesses".

Anybody remember Marge Schott, the former owner of the Cincinnati Reds? Same mentality. At the time most Cincinnatians regarded her as a good owner because the Reds were winning and just won a World Series. Fans were happy with the way Marge Schott was running the Reds because all the success that was happening under her watch. But what Reds fans didn't realize she inherited an organization what experts deemed had one of the best farm systems with the best scouts in baseball.

Marge Schott lacked an understanding of how the Reds scouts were integral to the success of the Reds. Marge didn't feel she need to have this extra cost associated with the the Reds farm system. She started cutting the pay and benefits of the Reds scouts. Knowledgeable people warned fans that Marge Schott ownership of the Reds would lead to their long term decline but fans only saw the immediate short term success under her watch and still regarded her as a good owner. Eventually other teams saw what was happened and jumped in acquired what was at the time some of the best scouts in baseball. With a gutted farm system the Reds went into a long term decline as predicted.

[jmecklenborg]

Well that's a terrible analogy, considering the fact that the Reds made the playoffs in 1990, 1994 (would have if not of the strike), 1995, and 1999 (one game playoff), the year she sold the team to Carl Lindner. The Reds were consistently competitive under her ownership. Not so with her successor, Carl Lindner, or his successor, Bob Castellini, until 2010.

[WILWRadio]

Bear in mind that P&B likely has suppliers in the region that would also be impacted by such cuts at Corporate. I suspect far more jobs would be lost than the potential 9,000 at the HQ that I've heard bandied about by some of the local prognosticators on radio and television in Cincinnati.

[Coseau]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Well that's a terrible analogy, considering the fact that the Reds made the playoffs in 1990, 1994 (would have if not of the strike), 1995, and 1999 (one game playoff), the year she sold the team to Carl Lindner. The Reds were consistently competitive under her ownership. Not so with her successor, Carl Lindner, or his successor, Bob Castellini, until 2010.

MLB baseball players have much longer careers as opposed to NFL football players so time can mask bad scouting and drafts due to the longevity of MLB player careers. The core of a good baseball team can stay together for about 10 years or more until the players hit their mid to late thirties when the need for youthful successors can no longer be ignored. The effects of a bad scouting and development department does not manifest itself until that current batch of players careers nears to its end. That is why the Reds were consistently competitive under her ownership due to the longevity of careers of MLB players .

The results of having your best scouts leave en mass does not impact your operations in a negative way immediately because it takes years for baseball draftees to reach the Major Leagues. Whereas in the NFL you have 5 bad drafts in a row you have the Cincinnati Bengals of the 1990's and early 2000's. While most NFL teams had full time scouts that scouted players during the college football season the Bengals did not employ any scouts in their operation. The Bengals coaches had to do that job. The Bengals put together an unprecedented string of bad drafts and the results showed. Only when they hired Marvin Lewis, a coach that has ability to evaluate talent, was when the Bengals started to have winning seasons.

In Major League Baseball there is a much longer longevity in player's careers. Good players can be productive for maybe 10 to 15 years in time. That can mask bad drafts at the time but eventually the cracks will show especially for a small market team that do not have the finances of a the big market teams. The Reds were competitive under Marge Schott's watch largely due to the good scouting and development department it had during the 1980's. All that evaporated in the 1990's under Marge Schott's watch and it finally manifested itself by the 2000's.
Cincinnati Reds Retrospective: 1990-1994 Drafts