Which neighborhoods will gentrify in the next ten years? (Cleveland: middle-class, houses)

[progmac]

I'm an optimist and frankly I will be surprised if any city neighborhood is worse off in ten years than today. Like restoration and some others, I see the decline and problems being pushed out of the city proper into the townships. But, since you posed a direct question, I'll do my best to provide a direct answer.

Neighborhoods that will be substantially nicer ten years compared with today:
- Over the Rhine (to me this one is pretty close to a sure bet - just look at the pace of sales of the new gateway quarter condos)
- Mt Auburn
- Northside
- Camp Washington
- Watch list: spring grove village, fairmount, east price hill

Neighborhoods that may be worse in ten years compared with today:
- Roselawn
- College Hill
- I'm so optimistic I can't even name a third

Note that I'm only talking city neighborhoods here and I'm focusing on neighborhoods that may seem somewhat 'ghetto' today and are earlier in the development cycle. I think you are at a later stage of transformation in areas like Pleasant Ridge, Kennedy Heights, and East Walnut Hills where the risk is less but so too is the potential profit (although the profit is certainly still substantial!). EG, I think you could fill up a nice mixed use condo building in downtown pleasant ridge in no time, but your cost might be higher going in.

[Sarah Perry]

Hubby and I were just cruising around Northside a while ago (yeah, we have no lives haha) and although I knew there's been ongoing rehabbing, it seems as if the pace has really picked up. I hate to make predictions, but in the 10 years I've been watching, Northside seems to have gotten better and better, and I don't see that momentum changing anytime soon.

Of course, it still has very deteriorated areas, and I don't see that changing completely, either. But overall the outlook seems markedly positive.

[Wilson513]

East end is the only neighborhood that will be substantially improved in 10 years. And, only between Wilmer and downtown. Northside, Fairmont, Westwood, Avondale, etc. will go down hill. The rest will look just like they do today.

[high mileage]

Originally Posted by wilson1010

East end is the only neighborhood that will be substantially improved in 10 years. And, only between Wilmer and downtown. Northside, Fairmont, Westwood, Avondale, etc. will go down hill. The rest will look just like they do today.

I can see that with Westwood and Avondale, and probably even Fairmount, but what makes you think Northside will be worse off in 10 years? I have never really though of Northside being a neighborhood that will go downhill. I'm not disagreeing with you, I just want to know your reasons for thinking that since you seem to have pretty good insight of things that are going on.

[Wilson513]

Originally Posted by high mileage

I can see that with Westwood and Avondale, and probably even Fairmount, but what makes you think Northside will be worse off in 10 years? I have never really though of Northside being a neighborhood that will go downhill. I'm not disagreeing with you, I just want to know your reasons for thinking that since you seem to have pretty good insight of things that are going on.

Northside's appeal is based on a fashion trend, not solid fundamentals. Its in the valley, smelly, dirty, noisy. The place was abandoned by the city's early residents in favor of the hills leaving behind a legacy of mediocre housing stock. Its all chopped up and what has been replaced is not good. And, it has a huge population nearby of entrenched vermin always there to slip into the neighborhood and break in or worse. The whole idea that a $10,000 acquisition price is a good thing is just hoooey. Its a fallacy. That $10,000 price is a sign that no one values the property, not that there are a lot of stupid people who have missed a great opportunity. Its a loser's strategy. Like going into a casino and trying to find the game no one is playing, or going to a restaurant BECAUSE it has an empty parking lot. Sorry, its just a loser's strategy.

As the trend wears off, gays realizing that its just as fun to live in a safe, lovely, neighborhood too, the rehabbing will stop and the area will settle into a stagnation just like Madisonville has.

[Cincy-Rise]

^ Although, I feel NS with remain strong simply due to its location and distance from the city (I like its NBD as well), that was an excellent response, Wilson.

This forum has too many "just cause" members ... needs more Wilsons.

[progmac]

Originally Posted by wilson1010

East end is the only neighborhood that will be substantially improved in 10 years. And, only between Wilmer and downtown. Northside, Fairmont, Westwood, Avondale, etc. will go down hill. The rest will look just like they do today.

So the only neighborhood that will improve is the one that you happen to be familiar with because you drive through it on your way to work and see the regular progress?

Northside is a textbook case of consumer led gentrification. All of the indicators are there and have been for some time. But, part of the reason people make money is because others don't believe there is any to be made! You talk about housing stock. There was some projected demand for new construction in Northside. Then Rockford Woods came about (this years citirama location) and the lots sold out in less than 30 days. Another developer is betting on the old Colerain connector location to sell energy efficient $150-$200k homes. And those lots are more than half sold in two months.

Fortunately, today's 20-30 year olds are different in ways that even gen-xers struggle to understand, much less baby boomers. And this is one of many trends that will lead to places like Northside continuing their rebound.

There is a huge gap in Cincinnati neighborhoods wealth disparity. The middle class doesn't want to and/or can't afford to buy into hyde park, mount lookout, or oakley. But they can afford Northside and Pleasant Ridge and Westwood and be surrounded by similar folks. To say that these middle class people populating these neighborhoods will wake up and say, "oh, yeah, i actually meant to move to the suburbs, see ya!" is pretty unrealistic. The reality is that most of these middle class people actually grew up in the suburbs and know firsthand what to expect from suburban life.

Another trend at work is early adopters moving on. The early adopters of Oakley and Pleasant Ridge and Norwood have moved and are already at work in Price Hill and the "bad" parts of Northside and Westwood. In ten years, they'll move again, but then it will be to Carthage or Mohawk or wherever else has potential.

It might be an ideal time to take a break and read the thorough Wiki page on gentrification: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gentrification

[Cincy-Rise]

Originally Posted by progmac

Fortunately, today's 20-30 year olds are different in ways that even gen-xers struggle to understand, much less baby boomers. And this is one of many trends that will lead to places like Northside continuing their rebound.

Prog, don't we usually clash on certain topics? You know ... you remember those CD members that you just don't get along with? ... but lately you've been posting everything I would say. We're on the same wavelength, brother.

[progmac]

Originally Posted by wilson1010

Northside's ... The place was abandoned by the city's early residents in favor of the hills leaving behind a legacy of mediocre housing stock.

So were Columbia Tusculum, Oakley, Mt Adams, and parts of Hyde Park. None of those places have a housing stock any better than Northside. And for better or worse, the early manufacturing that characterized northside (you called it dirty) has mostly left. But it is still in a valley and has air quality issues.

[progmac]

Originally Posted by Cincy-Rise

Prog, don't we usually clash on certain topics? You know ... you remember those CD members that you just don't get along with? ... but lately you've been posting everything I would say. We're on the same wavelength, brother.

we've had our disagreements but hopefully we stay respectful and it is nice to find that frequently we even agree.