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I believe we are at least 20-30 years away from seeing any new cities/metros added to the "big leagues" list. That list, in my opinion, currently includes most of the cities that rank high in any "Top Ten ..." list on CD, and tends to correlate with the 10 most populous metro areas - with few exceptions.
Having said that, it seems these cities are headed in the big league direction:
Denver
Austin
Charlotte
Nashville
Raleigh
The existing "big leaguers" have at minimum ~5 million residents, and the up-and-comers are on average ~2-3 million residents behind. Not that population is the end-all, be-all...but it is a factor in bigness.
Still, the metros currently in the 3-4 million range seem to have stabilized or experience slower growth, and do not seem to be recognizing the rate of growth, newfound popularity, national attention, and/or energy of the ones I listed. Almost like "been there, done that" areas for the country...sitting idly by as the up-and-comers keep moving up the ladder.
As a native of NC, I'm not sure Raleigh will ever be a "big league city" in terms of urbanity. I do believe it will be a heavily populated region, but I think there is a difference. Although I've clearly seen it growing, I can not say that I've seen it urbanizing in design, layout, function. Seems the other four are making strides in producing urban built-environments.
It will be a looooong time before Austin, Charlotte, Nashville, and Raleigh catch metros that are currently in the 3 to 4 million range, especially Boston, San Francisco, Seattle, Minneapolis and even San Diego. Denver is already well ahead of the others you listed.
It will be a looooong time before Austin, Charlotte, Nashville, and Raleigh catch metros that are currently in the 3 to 4 million range, especially Boston, San Francisco, Seattle, Minneapolis and even San Diego. Denver is already well ahead of the others you listed.
I agree. I also noticed Denver was in a different population class, which is why it was first on the list.
Location: northern Vermont - previously NM, WA, & MA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly
What is the realistic size of metro for this
4 or 5 million?
probably subjective. Denver is not quite 3 million, yet is the the smallest metro area with all 4 major American sports franchises. However LA is still without the NFL and Oklahoma City has the NBA now, so again subjective.
I think the discussion brings to light is that there will be a lot more migration to cities like Albuquerque, Omaha, and Boise. We've already heard about Austin, Raleigh, and Charlotte a lot over the last decade which were all in the same tier as the first 3 mentioned not that long ago. Austin, Raleigh, and Charlotte will crest 2 million which I think is probably the biggest milestone to ascend into a "big city' or "big metro". in other words, they've arrived, they are on the radar.
Location: northern Vermont - previously NM, WA, & MA
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Canada
Quote:
Originally Posted by adavi215
I also want to see what cities in Canada may come up. I can only think of Calgary which is up there but may get bigger?
Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton have had tremendous growth.
Vancouver just crested the 2 million + tier and is very much on the international radar. Having recently hosted an olympics showcasing their city to the world, also gave it a big boost. (Atlanta also grew tremendously after hosting the Olympics) Being Canada's only Pacific Rim city is a big advantage. Vancouver metro is also very land poor being wedged between the city and the mountains so it grows with a lot more density and vertically than most North American cities. Hard to say if it will be poised to grow beyond 3 million + but it certainly is poised to grow a lot bigger.
Calgary and Edmonton recently crested 1 million + in their metro areas. Calgary will probably grow a lot bigger with it's white collar ties to the energy industry. Edmonton will grow but not as fast as Calgary with it's blue collar ties to the energy industry and it's role as a government city (capital of Alberta).
I see Ottawa having moderate growth in the same way DC has grown being the nations capital and government supported jobs.
I don't see Montreal getting much bigger than it's 3-4 million tier. I don't see it declining either, but it's clear that Toronto is the center of banking and commerce in Canada. Toronto recently crested 5 + million and it will likely always be the largest city and metro area in Canada.
Cincinnati-unlike other cities Cincinnati is nearly thriving in this economy, i will consider it a big league city once it has a 750fter
Charlotte-right there almost
Columbus- Give it a few years
Tulsa- if it continues to steadily grow it will be a big league city in 10 yrs.
Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton have had tremendous growth.
Vancouver just crested the 2 million + tier and is very much on the international radar. Having recently hosted an olympics showcasing their city to the world, also gave it a big boost. (Atlanta also grew tremendously after hosting the Olympics) Being Canada's only Pacific Rim city is a big advantage. Vancouver metro is also very land poor being wedged between the city and the mountains so it grows with a lot more density and vertically than most North American cities. Hard to say if it will be poised to grow beyond 3 million + but it certainly is poised to grow a lot bigger.
Calgary and Edmonton recently crested 1 million + in their metro areas. Calgary will probably grow a lot bigger with it's white collar ties to the energy industry. Edmonton will grow but not as fast as Calgary with it's blue collar ties to the energy industry and it's role as a government city (capital of Alberta).
I see Ottawa having moderate growth in the same way DC has grown being the nations capital and government supported jobs.
I don't see Montreal getting much bigger than it's 3-4 million tier. I don't see it declining either, but it's clear that Toronto is the center of banking and commerce in Canada. Toronto recently crested 5 + million and it will likely always be the largest city and metro area in Canada.
Any other Canadian cities? Most of these I am familiar with in name. I wasn't aware that Calgary had a thriving energy industry. I think that should make it poised to be the 4th city inn Canada, behind Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver.
I was not aware that Vancouver was that small. I thought it was bigger than Seattle.
Location: Cleveland bound with MPLS in the rear-view
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emcee squared
Any thoughts about Minneapolis/St. Paul hitting 4 million?
2020 maybe.
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Canada
