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Keep in mind Portland and Denver have faster than average growth too.
SA has a growth rate of 25%.
Portland is at 15% and Denver is at 16%
SA is growing quite a bit faster.
In Fact Sacramento has a faster growth rate than Both Portland and Denver but that didn't stop SA and Orlando from passing it
Looks like Austin passed Indianapolis and is on the heels of Charlotte.
both should pass Columbus and San Jose Soon.
Yes, I find some those projections to be extremely optimistic.
Yeah, considering the Houston MSA grew by 950,000 during the 1990's and 910,000 during the 2000's, I seriously doubt that it'll grow by 1,300,000 during the 2010's.
Yes, I find some those projections to be extremely optimistic.
there was a clear slowing down mid decade so taking the average for the decade for places like DFW, ATL, Vegas and Riverside will produce errors. All 4 of these metros came in under the 2009 estimate by hundreds of thousands because they were projecting based on info from the start of last decade included.
Even Houston, whose metro didn't come in under estimate, has estimates that seem way too high
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gnutella
Yeah, considering the Houston MSA grew by 950,000 during the 1990's and 910,000 during the 2000's, I seriously doubt that it'll grow by 1,300,000 people during the 2010's.
Houston grew by 1,231,393 in the 2000's not 910k. You are short changing us 300K people
there was a clear slowing down mid decade so taking the average for the decade for places like DFW, ATL, Vegas and Riverside will produce errors. All 4 of these metros came in under the 2009 estimate by hundreds of thousands because they were projecting based on info from the start of last decade included.
Even Houston, whose metro didn't come in under estimate, has estimates that seem way too high
Houston grew by 1,231,393 in the 2000's not 910. You are short changing us 300K people
Oh, never mind. I was looking at 2007 estimates.
Be that as it may, the 2010's are going to be a lost decade here in the United States, which will slow down migration, so adding 1.3M people will be a stretch.
Be that as it may, the 2010's are going to be a lost decade here in the United States, which will slow down migration, so adding 1.3M people will be a stretch.
yeah, migration has already slowed.
I dunno how it is affecting Houston because the slow didn't really show in the census figures. Probably because they may have been underestimating Houston in the start of the 2000's. I remember there was talk of ATL and DC passing Houston earlier in the decade. So I guess by the time the bad economy hit, the early underestimates may have reflected in an evening out instead of an overestimate like the other fast growing metros.
I think Houston will pull off another 1M, but not 1.3M
Same For DFW, and a bit less for ATL, Riverside and Phoenix.
DC may actually pick up steam and Join Houston and DFW
I dunno how it is affecting Houston because the slow didn't really show in the census figures. Probably because they may have been underestimating Houston in the start of the 2000's. I remember there was talk of ATL and DC passing Houston earlier in the decade. So I guess by the time the bad economy hit, the early underestimates may have reflected in an evening out instead of an overestimate like the other fast growing metros.
I think Houston will pull off another 1M, but not 1.3M
Which is why I wonder where this particular organization gets its info from which to base population growth estimates when we can all see as clear as day that growth in the second half of the last decade tapered off in the high growth metros you mentioned.
We are all privy to the exact same official data as they are and they have no inside track to something we don't know, so how do they make these guesses??
Its as if they totally ignored the actual census and base their growth on 2009 growth estimates.
Which is why I wonder where this particular organization gets its info from which to base population growth estimates when we can all see as clear as day that growth in the second half of the last decade tapered off in the high growth metros you mentioned.
We are all privy to the exact same official data as they are and they have no inside track to something we don't know, so how do they make these guesses??
Its as if they totally ignored the actual census and base their growth on 2009 growth estimates.
I dunno but up until summer this year their web site was listing estimates for certain metros that were hundreds of thousands of people higher than it should be.
In fact they estimated DFW earlier this to be more than they are estimating now. They are only now factoring in the 2010 results. for earlier estimates they simply added people to 2009 numbers.
Almost 39k growth estimated for the Nashville area. That might be a little high, but isn't unreasonable.
My guess is that they used the Census numbers as the official 2010 numbers, but used their own estimates for the base (which might explain why some of them seem high during the recession).
In any case, we should've passed Providence by now. Norfolk-Va Beach -- you're next.
Almost 39k growth estimated for the Nashville area. That might be a little high, but isn't unreasonable.
My guess is that they used the Census numbers as the official 2010 numbers, but used their own estimates for the base (which might explain why some of them seem high during the recession).
In any case, we should've passed Providence by now. Norfolk-Va Beach -- you're next.
looks like they used the 2010 census results and multiplied by the metro's respective rate of growth over the past decade and added the figure to the 2010 numbers
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