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San Antonio has a population of 2,250,000. Portland has about 50- 70k more, so it is likely that San Antonio could pass Portland, OR in the next few years.
San Antonio is about 39K behind Portland so it's only a short time, I would say a couple years away, as for Austin, It would take 25-30 years to get closer to San Antonio's population, they are both growing very fast. Austin and San Antonio have a little higher percentage growth rates than DFW and Houston but, that is a waste of time to even bother when that's going to happen, it wont be in anyone's lifetime on this forum.
San Antonio will gain ground on Minneapolis/St. Paul since it is growing much faster. San Antonio doubled in size in 30 years and it's growing faster than ever before so it's not an unlikely scenario that it will either be equal or surpass its population.
I know....I gave you the numbers based on very generalized information and assuming the growth rates would stay the same. I can tell you one thing though: San Antonio will NOT be growing at 30%+ for 30 more years. It will ebb and flow like every other city on the planet (at least, those cities that are not destined to become future global players, like LA in the 20th century).
I know....I gave you the numbers based on very generalized information and assuming the growth rates would stay the same. I can tell you one thing though: San Antonio will NOT be growing at 30%+ for 30 more years. It will ebb and flow like every other city on the planet (at least, those cities that are not destined to become future global players, like LA in the 20th century).
How do you know that? Especially since you added that bit in the parentheses? I mean, I wouldn't expect that either but, truth is that no one knows what 30 years or even 20 years has planned for every city. It's fun to speculate, and there's nothing wrong with anyone giving their predictions, but no one knows what the future holds. There were cities 50 years ago that were expected to be the next big thing and are completely off the radar now. On the other side, there were cities that were complete backwaters with little important industries that became major players today. It's all just in fun to imagine what a city could be like in the future.
In order for a city to grow at a constant percentage rate over time it has to increase its' growth in raw numbers. Growing 10 percent at a million requires 100,000 people, 3 million requires 300,000. Cities rarely maintain that sort of acceleration in raw numbers growth over time which is why the growth percentage usually falls as they get bigger. Unless a place is destined to be a major world city like LA high growth is usually episodic (a few decades) and then tapers off. I suppose San Antonio could be the next Atlanta/Houston/Dallas type place but to do that it would have to knock one of those places down a peg in the hierarchy of southeastern cities. Personally I don't see that happening.
Last edited by Drewcifer; 01-09-2013 at 12:09 AM..
In order for a city to grow at a constant percentage rate over time it has to increase its' growth in raw numbers. Growing 10 percent at a million requires 100,000 people, 3 million requires 300,000. Cities rarely maintain that sort of acceleration in raw numbers growth over time which is why the growth percentage usually falls as they get bigger.
Yes that is very true. You cannot expect every city growing fast today to be replace NY, LA, and Chicago in 30 years.
My point is:
Quote:
Unless a place is destined to be a major world city like LA high growth is usually episodic (a few decades) and then tapers off.
You don't know what city (or cities) that could be.
How do you know that? Especially since you added that bit in the parentheses? I mean, I wouldn't expect that either but, truth is that no one knows what 30 years or even 20 years has planned for every city. It's fun to speculate, and there's nothing wrong with anyone giving their predictions, but no one knows what the future holds. There were cities 50 years ago that were expected to be the next big thing and are completely off the radar now. On the other side, there were cities that were complete backwaters with little important industries that became major players today. It's all just in fun to imagine what a city could be like in the future.
It is fun....
For a city to grow at 30% or more for 3-4 decades, it would increase in size by 2.2 to 2.9 times its current size....no matter the population. Only smaller metros (less than 2 million) can achieve that kind of growth in America in this day and age. I just can't see San Antonio being 4.8 milllion in population in 30 years or 6.2 million in 40 years (personally). I think what is driving the growth in San Antonio has limits and some things will change along the way to slow its growth some as it continues to expand. This is just based on what I've witnessed over the years, and there are obviously exceptions now and again. But I think for every 10 cities that grow at a clip at or above 30%, maybe 1 of them can sustain that growth for over 3 decades, and usually the results are NOT pretty (e.g. Phoenix or Vegas). Again.....USUALLY.
For a city to grow at 30% or more for 3-4 decades, it would increase in size by 2.2 to 2.9 times its current size....no matter the population. Only smaller metros (less than 2 million) can achieve that kind of growth in America in this day and age. I just can't see San Antonio being 4.8 milllion in population in 30 years or 6.2 million in 40 years (personally). I think what is driving the growth in San Antonio has limits and some things will change along the way to slow its growth some as it continues to expand. This is just based on what I've witnessed over the years, and there are obviously exceptions now and again. But I think for every 10 cities that grow at a clip at or above 30%, maybe 1 of them can sustain that growth for over 3 decades, and usually the results are NOT pretty (e.g. Phoenix or Vegas). Again.....USUALLY.
And for the record, I know everything!
Can I ask a huge favor?
Can you PLEASE stop bashing Phoenix for just 2 seconds? Honestly this **** is getting quite old. Every city has something to offer. Otherwise, there would not be people there and not every city needs to be a carbon copy of the next one. Furthermore, if you actually don't live in said city and haven't experienced everything that it offers, then perhaps you should get to learn more about it before offering your unsolicited opinion(s) and sweeping generalizations.
For a city to grow at 30% or more for 3-4 decades, it would increase in size by 2.2 to 2.9 times its current size....no matter the population. Only smaller metros (less than 2 million) can achieve that kind of growth in America in this day and age. I just can't see San Antonio being 4.8 milllion in population in 30 years or 6.2 million in 40 years (personally). I think what is driving the growth in San Antonio has limits and some things will change along the way to slow its growth some as it continues to expand. This is just based on what I've witnessed over the years, and there are obviously exceptions now and again. But I think for every 10 cities that grow at a clip at or above 30%, maybe 1 of them can sustain that growth for over 3 decades, and usually the results are NOT pretty (e.g. Phoenix or Vegas). Again.....USUALLY.
And for the record, I know everything!
I was wondering if you know something that I don't know, because I would love to know.
I agree with you that I would never expect San Antonio (or Phoenix or Austin or Salt Lake City, etc.) to continue to grow that fast forever. It would be very difficult for a city to keep up those percentages with much larger populations.
I am just curious. What do you think is driving SA's growth.
We are just making projections of what might be. I think cities like San Antonio and Austin will eventually surpass the east coast biggies, like Boston and Philadephia as well, one day, decades down the road. DFW and Houston have.
Can you PLEASE stop bashing Phoenix for just 2 seconds? Honestly this **** is getting quite old. Every city has something to offer. Otherwise, there would not be people there and not every city needs to be a carbon copy of the next one. Furthermore, if you actually don't live in said city and haven't experienced everything that it offers, then perhaps you should get to learn more about it before offering your unsolicited opinion(s) and sweeping generalizations.
Thanks in advance.
Which example of a fast-growing city SHOULD I have used instead? I DID mention Vegas....
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