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Allentown and it's immediate areas probably have a very low commuter rate to the New York MSA. So in a sense I can understand your argument on that part but that fact remains that the Lehigh Valley MSA includes Warren County, NJ and that county was able to reach the CSA threshold with the NYC area while still maintaining the 25% MSA threshold for the Allentown MSA. If trends continue the way they are, Philly and NYC will combine into one CSA in the near future(if not already in some cases).
The Los Angeles CSA will most likely surpass the New York CSA in population and GDP as well in the next 20 years if Philly isn't added to the New York CSA. So even from a conspiracy perspective it makes a lot of sense.
How the heck do you figure that? The job market in LA is awful. Even their main industry (the entertainment industry) is finding it hard to make movies there. There already significantly less than NYC now and even if you added San Diego which is further away and less continuous growth than NYC to Philly, even without Philly added NYC still will have more people. Care to elaborate on that one, or is that just wishful thinking?
How the heck do you figure that? The job market in LA is awful. Even their main industry (the entertainment industry) is finding it hard to make movies there. There already significantly less than NYC now and even if you added San Diego which is further away and less continuous growth than NYC to Philly, even without Philly added NYC still will have more people. Care to elaborate on that one, or is that just wishful thinking?
You really think entertainment is the main industry?
How the heck do you figure that? The job market in LA is awful. Even their main industry (the entertainment industry) is finding it hard to make movies there. There already significantly less than NYC now and even if you added San Diego which is further away and less continuous growth than NYC to Philly, even without Philly added NYC still will have more people. Care to elaborate on that one, or is that just wishful thinking?
As for as figures go, I'm basing it on the stats 18Monclair provided for all of us. There is no denying that the Los Angeles area is definitely closing the gap between the two cities. If NYC didn't add places like Allentown to it's CSA, LA would be even more closer to surpassing it.
1.New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA $1.358 Trillion
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT Metro Area $86.338 Billion
Kingston, NY Metro Area $4.829 Billion
New Haven-Milford, CT Metro Area $40.084 Billion
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area $1,358,416 Billion
Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY Metro Area: No Data
2.Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA CSA $918.834 Billion
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metro Area $765.759 Billion
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA Metro Area $39.077 Billion
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metro Area $113.998 Billion
Even if San Diego was added, it would boost the LA CSA to over $1 Trillion in GDP. LA is also growing at a faster rate than the New York CSA. LA was only about one county away from surpassing the New York CSA. So it's not as farfetched as you think it is.
As for as figures go, I'm basing it on the stats 18Monclair provided for all of us. There is no denying that the Los Angeles area is definitely closing the gap between the two cities. If NYC didn't add places like Allentown to it's CSA, LA would be even more closer to surpassing it.
1.New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA $1.358 Trillion
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT Metro Area $86.338 Billion
Kingston, NY Metro Area $4.829 Billion
New Haven-Milford, CT Metro Area $40.084 Billion
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area $1,358,416 Billion
Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY Metro Area: No Data
2.Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA CSA $918.834 Billion
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metro Area $765.759 Billion
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA Metro Area $39.077 Billion
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metro Area $113.998 Billion
Even if San Diego was added, it would boost the LA CSA to over $1 Trillion in GDP. LA is also growing at a faster rate than the New York CSA. LA was only about one county away from surpassing the New York CSA. So it's not as farfetched as you think it is.
And if they added San Diego, it still won't matter. If that happens, then NY gets Philly. That adds about six million more to the NY CSA. I just don't get your rationale. It's not like NYC isn't growing and LA is growing leaps and bounds ahead of it. Consider the difference already, then add whatever imaginary number it is that you want to add. It still won't add up. You act like almost four hundred billion isn't significant. It's a major metro in itself.
And if they added San Diego, it still won't matter. If that happens, then NY gets Philly. That adds about six million more to the NY CSA. I just don't get your rationale. It's not like NYC isn't growing and LA is growing leaps and bounds ahead of it. Consider the difference already, then add whatever imaginary number it is that you want to add. It still won't add up. You act like almost four hundred billion isn't significant. It's a major metro in itself.
I don't think your getting the point. It's not about me personally wanting a certain city to surpass another city, I could care less about that honestly. All I'm saying is that LA is closing the gap and could most likely surpass the New York CSA in the next couple of decades.
People really need to look at the real GDP numbers. Real GDP is adjusted for inflation so real GDP is a measure of activity in the economy (not price increases which provide no utility). The vast majority of economists agree that real GDP is a better measure of the economy than nominal GDP. Here are real GDP growth rates for LA and NY MSAs:
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA - 2010 1.1%, 2011 1.2%, 2012 3.1% (three year average 1.8%)
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA - 2010 3.6%, 2011 1.1%, 2012 1.4% (three year average 2.0%)
People really need to look at the real GDP numbers. Real GDP is adjusted for inflation so real GDP is a measure of activity in the economy (not price increases which provide no utility). The vast majority of economists agree that real GDP is a better measure of the economy than nominal GDP. Here are real GDP growth rates for LA and NY MSAs:
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA - 2010 1.1%, 2011 1.2%, 2012 3.1%
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA - 2010 3.6%, 2011 1.1%, 2012 1.4%
Even this method shows that LA is growing at a faster rate and the trend will most likely continue in the future.
I don't think your getting the point. It's not about me personally wanting a certain city to surpass another city, I could care less about that honestly. All I'm saying is that LA is closing the gap and could most likely surpass the New York CSA in the next couple of decades.
Not a chance. NYC and Philly are eventually going to converge. And why the heck shouldn't they? It really is one continuous urban environment. The sole measuring stick for MSA's or CSA's. In my opinion LA has maxed out. They will grow more for their location (Mexico-illegals), but as security gets tougher and deportation takes more of an effect LA will shrink. LA used to have a lot of factory type jobs contrary to what many people think about LA. But that industry has taken a big hit. I just don't see it happening. Add SD to LA and you get around 2-3 million more. Add Philly to NYC and you get 6. LA doesn't really stand a chance. No offense.
Even this method shows that LA is growing at a faster rate and the trend will most likely continue in the future.
Not the three year average.
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