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@Isawooty. You need to recheck the growth rates of NC and GA cities since 2000. Metro Atlanta, Savannah, Athens, and Warner Robins have been booming: 20%-plus growth rates, which are similar to many NC metros. And no way will North Carolina catch up with New York State in population, prestige, financial clout. etc. Not in 2050. NEVER. New York City will see to that. Charlotte and Raleigh will remain small sweet potatoes in comparison. (Love them sweet potatoes, but... it's hopeless.)
I assume you are comparing METRO areas. "City-proper"/municipalities are artificial yardsticks in the 21st century. South Carolina's three largest cities are far larger than the city proper -- and SC cities aren't allowed to annex as a rule (NC cities are legally allowed to gobble up unincorporated areas rather easily, so they do).
@Isawooty. You need to recheck the growth rates of NC and GA cities since 2000. Metro Atlanta, Savannah, Athens, and Warner Robins have been booming: 20%-plus growth rates, which are similar to many NC metros. And no way will North Carolina catch up with New York State in population, prestige, financial clout. etc. Not in 2050. NEVER. New York City will see to that. Charlotte and Raleigh will remain small sweet potatoes in comparison. (Love them sweet potatoes, but... it's hopeless.)
I assume you are comparing METRO areas. "City-proper"/municipalities are artificial yardsticks in the 21st century. South Carolina's three largest cities are far larger than the city proper -- and SC cities aren't allowed to annex as a rule (NC cities are legally allowed to gobble up unincorporated areas rather easily, so they do).
Yeah, but the idiots in Washington said Georgia only added about 80k last year. Atlanta added more than that itself last year.
isa
I'm frankly not so sure that it did ad more than that last year.
Furthermore, I felt that the yearly estimates issued during the peak of the recession were overly generous to Georgia. What could be happening is that the "idiots", your term, are correcting the stats they issued in earlier years this decade by adjusting the latest yearly total change downward so that it matches up better with what they feel is the closet approximation to the correct current Georgia population.
While I do believe that NC will eventually retake it's lead in the NC/GA population war, it won't ever catch New York in our lifetime either. Anyway,
Georgia is severely under counted. If I had to gauge our population estimates right now, I would say we're at about 10.3 million. There are several counties, especially in South Georgia that have figures as low as 40k that are "counted" to have grown by only 5k over the past 10 years but their schools, businesses, and amenities have shot through the roof.
A prime example of these would be Tift, Thomas, and Colquitt. Lowndes has boomed but it's a different story. The first three have just as much development and busyness as LaGrange/Troup, but some how according to the Census, they're less than 50k. Even the Sheriff's in these counties looked at the numbers like
Valdosta/Lowndes County feels busier than Warner Robins/Peach County everyday of the week but is smaller in population? How? The numbers don't make any sense.
Moving back up to metropolitan Atlanta...
To think that Gwinnett is under 900k right now is foolish. DeKalb is at already or slightly above 800k, and Cobb is in the mid to high 700ks. Fulton has over a million. I would have pegged Atlanta at just below 5.7 million last year. But I digress
I'm not sure how you feel Warner Robins is less "busier" than Valdosta.Especially when it was the first city out in the state to come out of the recession with the lowest unemployment rate and its also considerably denser(relatively speaking).
Warner Robins has always been bigger than Valdosta and is growing at a faster rate.Has for a while now.
-In regards to which state likely will be the next to bump off slow-growing New York and ratchet itself into the coveted spot of being fourth-largest state in our wonderful nation, I'd have to hazard a guess to suggest North Carolina. No offense intended towards Georgia, but it seems to very much be a state that is "putting all of its eggs into one basket". If you were to take Greater Atlanta out of the equation, then the rest of Georgia's "major" cities (i.e. Savannah, Macon, Augusta, Columbus, Athens, Rome, etc.) are all much, much smaller and are growing more slowly as well. While Georgia is currently a tad larger than North Carolina I just feel as if Georgia will come to a screeching halt if and when Greater Atlanta finally starts to plateau in population growth, permitting North Carolina to overtake it. The Tarheel State has three major metropolexes either already formed or emerging: Charlotte, which stands alone; Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill/Cary (fueled by the Research Triangle Park's consistent growth); and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point. I'm also projecting that Fayetteville will become a more formidable fourth major metropolitan area for the state in the coming years. This "spreading of fortunes" will help North Carolina to maintain its pace of rapid growth even if another recession slaps one of its major metropolitan areas to a screeching halt. I do love Atlanta; however, I do worry about Georgia's ability to maintain its prominence in population rankings since it is relying upon Atlanta and Atlanta alone to be its breadwinner while North Carolina has diversified itself. I foresee North Carolina rivaling and potentially surpassing New York around 2050.
-I foresee Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, and Illinois all continuing to maintain slow growth, with the potential for Pennsylvania to accelerate to more moderate growth (continued influx of I-95 cost-of-living refugees in Eastern PA and an impending renaissance underway to accelerate growth in Greater Pittsburgh).
-Illinois surpassed Pennsylvania in population a number of years ago, and I don't foresee Pennsylvania reclaiming that spot from Illinois anytime soon, although I do think PA will always be nipping at the heels of IL.
-It's disgusting how many of you Sunbelt/Southerners are pretty much "rooting" for the Rust Belt states that helped to make our nation great back in the 1700s-1800s to implode on themselves, seemingly eating popcorn in the process. I'd take slow growth or a neutral population trajectory in a well-built historic Nothern city anyday over rapid growth in a poorly-planned sprawltown like Cary, Apex, Olive Branch, or Kennesaw.
If you read about how much money has been invested in Savannah and its port ,you would be slower to simply that Georgia has nothing significant happening in the rest of the state.
Its not like Georgia cities are dying.Especially as more jobs are being created in Georgia than North Carolina.Personally I see cities like Augusta,Savannah and Columbus in the beginning stages of their greatest stage of growth in much of their histories.
Not to mention that "greater" Atlanta as you put it is almost a 30 county area with separate municipalities that in some cases have grown to be autonomous of Atlanta in almost every way.
Atlanta has a very diversified economy which mirrors that diversity in its municipalities.Its not like Pittsburgh in the past when the price of steel plummeted, Houston in the 80's with the oil crash,or Detroit and its heavy car manufacturing sectors.
A rapidly-growing plant is called a weed, and rapidly-growing cells are called cancer. Weeds and cancer illustrate that it's possible for something to grew too fast, and if it does, then the growth tends to be of poor quality. I honestly believe that states like Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Texas have been growing too fast, and there are bound to be some problems once the built environment in those states begins to age. There are already problems with secondary roads in and around the major metropolitan areas in those states being well over capacity, and good luck expanding those roads fast enough to meet current demands, let alone future demands. Just wait until sewers, dams and electrical grids need work, or the water supplies start to run dry. Atlanta almost ran out of water during a severe drought in 2007.
Obviously, population decline has its own set of problems, and it's been well-documented throughout the "Rust Belt" for decades now, but less well-documented are the problems in areas that are growing too fast. If anything, most news stories about those areas sound like they're written by the local Chambers of Commerce. They'll talk all day about how awesome it is to do business there, and how nice and new things look, but what they won't talk about is what a pain in the ass it is having to drive 10 MPH below the speed limit on a formerly bucolic country road that's now lined with subdivisions that were built without any care as to whether or not the road could handle the extra capacity. And the quality of the construction of the houses in those subdivisions is often mediocre, with plenty of shortcuts taken and cheap materials used. Those houses are going to be a pain in the ass to maintain sooner or later.
The truth is, slow and steady growth is the best, because it's not only easier to plan for, but it also tends to be more high-quality growth.
If you read about how much money has been invested in Savannah and its port ,you would be slower to simply that Georgia has nothing significant happening in the rest of the state.
Its not like Georgia cities are dying.Especially as more jobs are being created in Georgia than North Carolina.Personally I see cities like Augusta,Savannah and Columbus in the beginning stages of their greatest stage of growth in much of their histories.
Not to mention that "greater" Atlanta as you put it is almost a 30 county area with separate municipalities that in some cases have grown to be autonomous of Atlanta in almost every way.
Atlanta has a very diversified economy which mirrors that diversity in its municipalities.Its not like Pittsburgh in the past when the price of steel plummeted, Houston in the 80's with the oil crash,or Detroit and its heavy car manufacturing sectors.
Cities are more diverse economically nowadays.
This is incorrect.
North Carolina has added 84,740 jobs, with a growth rate of 2.1%, while Georgia has added 72,870, with a growth rate of 1.8%.
Top 10 states that added the most jobs:
1. California
2. Texas
3. Florida
4. Illinois
5. North Carolina
6. Pennsylvania
7. New York
8. Ohio
9. Georgia
10. Virginia
Even more so, the United States would need 2.8 billion people to have a population density comparable to Indian or China.
We're 11% of the way there!
The eastern seaboard is China-level. So is California. There are just a lot of rural areas with smaller towns in the interior. The west is an archipelago of densely-populated arable areas surrounded by desert wastes and mountains. States like Nevada will have many more problems with overcrowding in the future than New Jersey or Florida.
You can't really compare American density to that of some other countries, since resource usage is so high per capita.
Last edited by Hamtonfordbury; 01-02-2014 at 04:49 AM..
I'm not sure how you feel Warner Robins is less "busier" than Valdosta.Especially when it was the first city out in the state to come out of the recession with the lowest unemployment rate and its also considerably denser(relatively speaking).
Warner Robins has always been bigger than Valdosta and is growing at a faster rate.Has for a while now.
W/R is a bit denser because it's more established. However, you catch Valdosta in the AM or afternoon when folks are getting off from work. From Hahira to Lake Park and all that in between is on the move. Valdosta nor W/R is as busy as say Albany but Lowndes definitely feels busier than Houston and it's not a small difference either. IMHO.
A rapidly-growing plant is called a weed, and rapidly-growing cells are called cancer. Weeds and cancer illustrate that it's possible for something to grew too fast, and if it does, then the growth tends to be of poor quality. I honestly believe that states like Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Texas have been growing too fast, and there are bound to be some problems once the built environment in those states begins to age. There are already problems with secondary roads in and around the major metropolitan areas in those states being well over capacity, and good luck expanding those roads fast enough to meet current demands, let alone future demands. Just wait until sewers, dams and electrical grids need work, or the water supplies start to run dry. Atlanta almost ran out of water during a severe drought in 2007.
Obviously, population decline has its own set of problems, and it's been well-documented throughout the "Rust Belt" for decades now, but less well-documented are the problems in areas that are growing too fast. If anything, most news stories about those areas sound like they're written by the local Chambers of Commerce. They'll talk all day about how awesome it is to do business there, and how nice and new things look, but what they won't talk about is what a pain in the ass it is having to drive 10 MPH below the speed limit on a formerly bucolic country road that's now lined with subdivisions that were built without any care as to whether or not the road could handle the extra capacity. And the quality of the construction of the houses in those subdivisions is often mediocre, with plenty of shortcuts taken and cheap materials used. Those houses are going to be a pain in the ass to maintain sooner or later.
The truth is, slow and steady growth is the best, because it's not only easier to plan for, but it also tends to be more high-quality growth.
Lord knows Atlanta is littered with cheap construction subdivisions. When you're coming up 85 from La Grange they're painfully obvious. I often wonder who initially thought it was ok to cheapen the housing stock like that. I mean just awfully tacky.
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