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Those would just be projections. Those projections could be off, perhaps wildly off.
Norfolk is on track this year for a homicide rate in the 30s, not the 20s. Portsmouth, in the 50s, not the 40s.
It's not a projection, it's a rate expressed in terms of years. That's what a rate is.
A similar concept would be driving 15 miles in 15 minutes. Most people would call that 60 miles per hour even if they haven't driven for an hour because that's the units that we're accustomed to seeing. Unless everyone uses the same units, the rates won't make sense.
It's not a projection, it's a rate expressed in terms of years. That's what a rate is.
A similar concept would be driving 15 miles in 15 minutes. Most people would call that 60 miles per hour even if they haven't driven for an hour because that's the units that we're accustomed to seeing. Unless everyone uses the same units, the rates won't make sense.
The rate isn't in terms of years, it's in terms of per capita (100,000 people). You made the wrong connection. A city can still have a rate per 100k even if they don't have 100k people in their city limits. That's the rate. It's literally the same "unit", just adjusted to its time frame.
Nfk has 13 homicides thru 77 days this year (as of March 18). That's a homicide every ~5.92 days which means Nfk is on pace for ~62 murders by year end. That's not even close to Nfk's record and it isn't even 30/100k...
Norfolk is an unassumingly safe city. There are some rough areas, but Norfolk has never been the city in Virginia where people were just being murdered left abd right. Historically it and Portsmouth trade off as the worst Tidewater cities in terms of violence but neither have ever approached leading the state in per capita homicides, much less being anywhere amongst the highest on a national scale...
The two roughest cities in Virginia have been Richmond and Petersburg for a long, long time. Danville and Hopewell are also as rough as any Tidewater city, Nfk and The P included. There's this reputation Tidewater cities have, and yes there have been plenty of bad years and Tidewater has its share of violent pockets but it's not one of these cities that could be described as a war zone or killing field...
As MurphyKing54 noted, Jan-March are usually the quietest months in terms of crime, shootings, and homicides. Things will only pick up from here.
Chicago has seen 2 or 3
2 people died in South Chicago I will call it homicide 107 since the female was the murder victim but the male victim dead it is unknown if it is going to be either a murder suicide or double homicide
And another woman killed in a shooting in Little Village makes it 108
Prince Albert, SK 3 (8.35)
Airdrie, AB 2 (2.93)
Nanaimo, BC 2 (2.21)
Richmond, BC 3 (1.39)
Saguenay, QC 2 (1.37)
Abbotsford, BC 2 (1.33) Regina, SK 3 (1.31)
Oshawa, ON 2 (1.17) Winnipeg, MB 8 (1.06) Edmonton, AB 9 (0.92) Saskatoon, SK 2 (0.73)
Markham. ON 2 (0.58) Toronto, ON 15 (0.51)
London, ON 2 (0.49) Mississauga, ON 4 (0.48) Halifax, NS 2 (0.45) Vancouver, BC 2 (0.44)
Surrey, BC 2 (0.39) Brampton, ON 2 (0.33) Ottawa, ON 3 (0.32) Montreal, QC 4 (0.22) Calgary, AB 3 (0.22)
Langley City, BC 1
Prince George, BC 1
Fort McMurray, AB 1
Saint John, NB 1
Kamloops, BC 1
Sudbury, ON 1
Peterborough, ON 1
Saint John, NB 1
Coquitlam, BC 1
Victoria. BC 1
Red Deer, AB 1
Kelowna, BC 1
Kingston, ON 1
Longueuil, QC 1 Windsor, ON 1 Laval, QC 1 Hamilton, ON 1
Unsurprisingly, nothing out of the ordinary for Canada. Even for Toronto, it's been at 15 for the past 3 weeks. For a city shy of having a population of 2.8 million(official 2021 census), it's a huge contrast from Chicago, Philly, and Houston that can barely go 3 days until the next murder during the quieter winter months.
The rate isn't in terms of years, it's in terms of per capita (100,000 people). You made the wrong connection. A city can still have a rate per 100k even if they don't have 100k people in their city limits. That's the rate. It's literally the same "unit", just adjusted to its time frame.
What we usually see are murders per year normalized to 100,000 residents. What your post had was murders per 77 days normalized to 100,000 residents. If you give the same "rate" two weeks later, then it will be murders per 91 days normalized to 100,000 residents. Every day that goes by you're calculating a different rate that will just get bigger and bigger (assuming that murders continue) until at the end of the year it's finally the total murders in 365 days normalized to 100,000 people.
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