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The same report (https://www.commercialedge.com/blog/...office-report/) has Boston (presumably the whole metro) second in the nation to New York City in terms of square footage of office space currently under construction (12.69 million). Atlanta, New York, and Boston all have between 12.4 million and 13.1 million square feet under construction. It drops by over 1/3 when you get to number 4 on the list (Austin at 7.69 million) and big players like Philadelphia, LA, Chicago, and Miami are under 3 million. Once all of this space (much of it still unleased) comes to the market, Boston will certainly see that vacancy rate jump. For Boston (unlike NYC), nearly 13 million square feet is a pretty significant percentage of its overall office space.
I wouldn't put much stock in this. They have Seattle at 5.8 msf, with well over double that actually UC. Others such as CoStar capture this.
^^You can probably put some stock in it.
Boston is at least that. i can count the projects u/c and reach ~12M sq ft,
w/ ~15M sq ft more approved or coming up for.... https://www.bostonplans.org/news-cal...es-new-housing
They might be off (as you say) on Seattle,
and DC probably ranks high/er as well.
It shouldn't surprise anyone.
Boston and DC were 1,2 on the scorching hot/hottest list all through 2022.
refinere.com late 2022:
"Boston is still attractive. Unlike New York, San Francisco, and other mega metros, leasing activity is high. In fact, it reached pre-COVID levels in September 2021. The tenants-in-the-market (TIM) index was recently scored at 125 and activity scored an astounding 210, well above the national averages."
I'm dubious as to what % of Boston/ approved ever gets built.
Housing (approvals) are >25,000 units: clearly a positive.
But, the commercial stockpile (approved) is flatly delusional, imo.
The end to the boom (like a thud)/nationwide has to be soon.
Last edited by odurandina; 01-28-2023 at 12:28 AM..
I think it’s strange that they didn’t discuss “Downtown Crossing” as downtown.
It’s the only neighborhood in all of Boston that has “Downtown” in its name.
And fundamentally I’d say the area people call downtown can range from Tiny to expansive as the article suggests people (count jpdivola as one) call everything from Mass Ave to Seaport “Downtown” because there is no official downtown.
Technically speaking I think most people call the Financial District “the Financial a district” or even “FiDi” when people say downtown I think they’re referring to ‘greater downtown’ (when discussing its mixed use nature and rebound) or “Downtown Crossing” (when discussing the woes of downtown).
As someone growing up in the city in the 2000s/ 2010s Downtown included:
Beacon Hill
Back Bay
Bay Village
Chinatown
Theatre District
West End
Government Center
Financial District
Leather District
Downtown Crossing
North End
and eventually Seaport.
All of that is/was ‘Downtown’
As someone who grew up outside of the city, and eventually worked in the city, this is how I viewed “Downtown”.
Obviously, I now view Seaport / Fort Point as downtown, too. Really a core extension of the true downtown, more so than even Back Bag.
Downtown and DTX, to everyone’s point, isn’t doing that well. And it hasn’t for some time. There was little draw there, even 20 years ago. Some clubs, a few restaurants, a place to walk around. But if you didn’t work there, it’s not like it was really a destination (for me).
Seaports continues growth only pulls away more from DTX when it comes to shopping and restaurants. Even “luxury living” seems like it’s moving more towards Back Bay and Seaport and West End and South End.
Across the city of Boston, 17.6 percent of office space sat empty in the fourth quarter, according to research from Colliers International — the highest rate in the more than three decades Colliers has tracked data, research director Jeffrey Myers said.
This video is a recent Tuesday night a lot of which is not in some of the busier areas besides a glimpse of downtown crossing, Chinatown and ending in seaport
Overall I think it’s pretty good given it’s not including back bay, extensive downtown crossing, faneuil north end etc
Office vacancies are another measure of a downtown's health. Many retailers, restaurants, etc rely upon office workers for the economic lifeline of their businesses.
Following report provided by CommercialEdge, which provides the national and select US market total office vacancy rates as of year end 2022:
Canadian city office vacancies per other sources as of year end 2022:
Canada: 17.1%*
Montreal: 17.0*
Toronto: 13.6**
Sources: * Montreal Gazette re CBRE 1/24/23
**Toronto Star re CBRE 1/12/23
The Texas numbers are a bit surprising.
DC’s office vacancy rate is in free fall because of the 14 and counting office-to-residential conversions happening in downtown DC. I think the rate will go up and back down for years to come as more office owners make the decision to convert to residential which probably won’t stop for the next 30 years. There are 200 million sq. feet of office space in DC and a large chunk will be either demolished and torn down for new residential buildings or converted from office to residential in the future.
As I mentioned before, downtown Montreal vacancy rate is lower than reported. The downtown, according to Colliers, has a vacancy rate of 13.9%. I think CBRE includes Westmount as part of downtown, which is why vacancy rate is 16% to them.
It will go up this year but that's because 1.34M sq ft of office space will come to market, including the National Bank new HQ, which they will occupy 100% of, totaling 1.1M sq ft
a few notable transactions for downtown (this does not include all) and all in the downtown core
1. Davies Ward Phillips & Vineberg renewed 73K sq ft
2. ADP Canada 58K sq ft sublease
3. Undisclosed tenant that leased 22K sq ft at Place Ville Marie
"a man they say punched a 62-year-old woman after she said "excuse me" as she tried to walk past him in the concourse between the Orange and Red lines at Downtown Crossing around 2 p.m. yesterday."
I know its overkill, but I think this is the precise type of attack that fuels fear of "random" crime in the "city".
DC’s office vacancy rate is in free fall because of the 14 and counting office-to-residential conversions happening in downtown DC. I think the rate will go up and back down for years to come as more office owners make the decision to convert to residential which probably won’t stop for the next 30 years. There are 200 million sq. feet of office space in DC and a large chunk will be either demolished and torn down for new residential buildings or converted from office to residential in the future.
I think this speaks volumes as to how much excess office space downtown D.C had before. There are many people in D.C returning to at least part time in person work.
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