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I would argue that COVID also contributed significantly. When work from home was suddenly (and still is) a new acceptable form of being able to conduct business, this was a game-changer for NYC, and I would think, going forward, other large city downtowns, which have supplied entertainment for the after work crowd. If the central business district now has a higher rate of vacancies, there's a cascade effect. It's going to be interesting to see what happens to commercial real estate in the coming years, not just in NYC, but other metros where there is a distinct (or plural) CBD.
I disagree with the motive though. I think the main reason NYC isn’t really mentioned is because it hasn’t dropped down the charts at all. And still it’s not partially close to dropping down the chart.
Compared to say Detroit which has been surpassed by maybe 6 cities (Miami, Atlanta, Boston, Philly, Dallas, DC, Seattle, SF) since say 1988 (35 years ago)
Or even Chicago which is pretty obviously on the DC/SF/Toronto tier rather than NY/LA.
There is simply not a lot to pin NYC’s relevance against. Other than itself in the past. While most cities have some peer group to measure against
In terms of the inner city it’s pretty much undeniable Pittsburgh is in better shape than Cleveland. In terms of the metro area? Now that’s a debate. However people draw their conclusions based on like 3-4ish Sq miles so people I think do get a false impression Pittsburgh in head and shoulders above Cleveland
Pittsburgh is an interesting city. It's had a very nice reinvention and remains one of the more traditionally old school urban cities. It feels bigger and denser than it is. It's one of the few rust belt cities to national retail and intact middle to upscale neighborhoods right in the urban core. Yet nationally it has been in continuous relative decline. Places like Tampa, Denver, Seattle have blown well past it and now Austin, Nashville, Raleigh are starting to lap it.
SF and Seattle are fading in importance too with WFH in tech. The pendulum of disastrous left-wing progressive policies have also swung way too far and became caricatures and lessons for other cities. Worst part is everyone but the diehard progressives could have predicted this with the de facto hard drug decriminalization, defund the police rhetoric, and absurdly lenient sentencing of the past few years.
Seattle at least slowed the bleeding by electing a moderate mayor who cleaned up the parks and a Republican DA who started cracking down on repeat offenders. Another good sign is that a slew of Seattle area companies (Amazon, Redfin, Starbucks, TMobile, Nordstroms) have recently required employees to return to the office and downtown is starting to come back to life again. The Nordstrom flagship in downtown Seattle is doing pretty well compared to the one in SF Union Sq.
SF and Seattle are fading in importance too with WFH in tech. The pendulum of disastrous left-wing progressive policies have also swung way too far and became caricatures and lessons for other cities. Worst part is everyone but the diehard progressives could have predicted this with the de facto hard drug decriminalization, defund the police rhetoric, and absurdly lenient sentencing of the past few years.
Seattle at least slowed the bleeding by electing a moderate mayor who cleaned up the parks and a Republican DA who started cracking down on repeat offenders. Another good sign is that a slew of Seattle area companies (Amazon, Redfin, Starbucks, TMobile, Nordstroms) have recently required employees to return to the office and downtown is starting to come back to life again. The Nordstrom flagship in downtown Seattle is doing pretty well compared to the one in SF Union Sq.
I was in Seattle in 2020 and again in 2022, October both times, and I have never seen a city clean itself up and right itself like Seattle did. The city looked 100% more presentable last year than 3 years ago. I had no idea about the political change of leadership, but this explains it.
Is it still considered a trend if it’s been going on for 5 generations?
Core cities/urban counties were still largely growing until the pandemic. In the annual estimates since 2020, we've been seeing declines in places like Portland, Seattle, DC, and even Houston, Indy, Columbus, and Dallas. By 2027-30 I'd expect Phoenix, Las Vegas, Orlando, and Austin to be on the list.
Core cities/urban counties were still largely growing until the pandemic. In the annual estimates since 2020, we've been seeing declines in places like Portland, Seattle, DC, and even Houston, Indy, Columbus, and Dallas. By 2027-30 I'd expect Phoenix, Las Vegas, Orlando, and Austin to be on the list.
I wonder how much of that was a correction from the 2020 census? I would expect most of those cities will show positive growth when the 2022 city estimates come out.
Seems a sleight-of-hand that classifies most people living in Phoenix or Orlando as not already being in the suburbs. But fair enough if that was the point. Still, suburbs in general are not really a recent blip, so it seems odd at any rate to lose sleep over them.
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