Summer 2013 Colorado Weather, Rain, Monsoon, Thunderstorms, Hail, El Nino, La Nina, etc (Boulder: construction, county)

[jim9251]

Today, a cold front will move through the area and ahead of this front, more showers and storms are expected along with some gusty surface winds. However, the best support for storms has shifted to Wyoming and Montana so any storms that form will not be as strong as seen yesterday. Some shear and moisture does remain in the atmosphere though so some hail and strong gusty outflow winds are possible. The cold front will move through our area late this afternoon and evening before stalling out north of the San Juans as it loses its characteristics. Areas north of the San Juans will feel a distinct difference once the front moves through, especially Thursday and Friday mornings. The San Juans and areas south will see little difference. Once the front moves through, dry conditions can be expected through Sunday.

[jim9251]

The severe thunderstorms that moved near the Durango area have produced 1 inch to 1.75 inch sized hail. Flash flooding is also being reported northeast of Durango along CR250 and CR240 and is causing mudflows.

[jim9251]

Durango mudslides

The Durango Herald 09/18/2013 | Roads closed by mudslides

[jim9251]

Hail in Ridgway tonight, strong storm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
915 PM MDT WED SEP 18 2013

COZ011-012-014-017-018-190400-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN CO-NORTHWESTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS CO-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU/DALLAS DIVIDE CO-UPPER GUNNISON
RIVER VALLEY CO-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS CO-
915 PM MDT WED SEP 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OURAY...NORTHWESTERN HINSDALE...
SOUTHWESTERN GUNNISON...NORTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL AND SOUTHEASTERN
MONTROSE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM MDT...

AT 911 PM MDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
RIDGWAY...OR 21 MILES SOUTH OF MONTROSE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH. SPOTTERS ALSO REPORTED SOME STRONG WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ALONG
WITH ONE-HALF INCH HAIL. HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO REPORTED.

[jim9251]

The surface cold front is over the interstate 70 corridor this morning and will continue to drift to the south before washing out. An upper level trough can also be seen by the brown line over northeastern Utah and southern Wyoming. This trough is causing some early morning showers and even an occasional rumble of thunder north of I-70. Some isolated showers and storms are possible over the highest terrain of the Central and San Juan mountains though coverage should be limited this afternoon. The rest of the area will see plenty of sun and dry conditions. Overnight, radiational cooling will really kick in bringing much cooler temperatures to the area. In fact, areas near Craig and Meeker may reach freezing or just below. To that end, a Freeze Watch has been issued for that area. The next chance for more rain looks to be Sunday as another cold front moves through.

[jazzlover]

As is more typical, the Southwest Monsoon is becoming less reliable as fall approaches, and will likely recede completely within a few days as the Bermuda High begins its fall shrinkage. To be sure, this has been a historic monsoon season, but certainly not unprecedented. The Southwest Monsoon has always been fickle in its behavior. In many areas of the central and southern Rockies, this monsoon started slowly, got much stronger, affected many areas more heavily than normal, and has lasted longer and more reliably into September. Unusual, yes, unprecedented, no. A big feature that contributed to extensive flooding in the last couple of weeks was the entrainment by the Southwest Monsoon of a lot of moisture from Pacific tropical storm remnants. Again, unusual, but not unprecedented.

The Colorado media--scratch that--the Front Range media--has made much of the disaster (certainly greatly aggravated by a whole bunch of stuff built where it never should have been) along the Front Range, but this monsoon had effects far and wide in the southern Rockies and Southwest, most of that un-remarked in the metro-centric media. Of course, while a lot ground to a halt in the Front Range areas, much of rural southern Rockies had equally as heavy precipitation events, big running rivers, etc., but--for the most part--managed to continue business as usual.

The big losers in all of this, of course, will be Colorado and federal taxpayers, who will get to foot the bill to rebuild a whole lot of stuff built in stupid places. That will continue to be the case so long as people can count on Uncle Sugar to bail them out of stupid building decisions and as long as land use policies permit and even encourage land developers (who don't give a crap what happens once they have sold out their development to the "chumps") to develop in flood-prone areas. Another case where privatizing profits and socializing costs comes back to bite the taxpayers. And that is what relates to the weather discussion here: it's poor human judgment that is usually what turns unusual weather events from something merely to be observed and recorded into expensive and often deadly "disasters."

[Lost Roses]

[Of course, while a lot ground to a halt in the Front Range areas, much of rural southern Rockies had equally as heavy precipitation events, big running rivers, etc., but--for the most part--managed to continue business as usual.]

We've heard on the local news that there was flooding in areas south of us, but the impact of that was certainly overshadowed by the utter devastation in northern Colorado. I would imagine that those southern areas managed to continue business as usual because they didn't lose 1,800 homes to the raging rivers, didn't have towns wiped off the map, still had power, water, sewer, their bridges and roads. I've heard many of those who lost everything to the floods say they were denied flood insurance because they didn't qualify for it as their homes were not built on floodplains.

[jim9251]

Climate summary and outlook:


A Climate Outlook for October and the October-November-December Season - YouTube

[jim9251]

Monsoonal moisture returns this afternoon and will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms into Sunday. Isolated showers and storms will form across the south this afternoon. Showers increase tonight and become numerous on Sunday, especially over the higher terrain. Some storms will be strong across the south, with possible hail and gusty winds and heavy showers. Showers and storms will decrease Sunday night.

[jim9251]

Strong cold front and storms Sunday:


Strong Cold Front Moving Through Sunday - YouTube