Colorado Census 2010 (Denver, Colorado Springs, Aurora: high school, pub, yard)

[iknowftbll]

There has been some talk of this on other threads, so I wanted to bring this up and make it a Colorado-based thread.

In about 14 months, the Census Bureau will release its findings from this year's counts. Following that a scramble of re-districting and probably some gerrymandering will determine new congressional layouts and electoral vote counts.

Last census, Colorado gained a representative in the U.S. Congress and with it and electoral vote. It's hard to say what will happen this year, weather the state will gain again or hold steady. I think we can all agree that Colorado is not a candidate for losing a representative.

The state also tracks its own population and that of the cities therein. Usually the state's counts are slightly higher than the federal counts. And many times, when the counts are reconciled during a census, the state counts prove more accurate.

So with these thoughts in mind, I'm curious what others are thinking. What are some of your projections for the State of Colorado and for some of the major cities?

Here are a few projections that I'll throw in for starters:

Colorado Population will be approximately 5.2 million, or a rough gain of 900,000. This will probably be enough to add a congressional district and an electoral vote. That translates to more clout in the federal government.

Colorado's top five cities will be (and these are approximate):

Denver: 610,000 (+55,000)
Colorado Springs: 415,000 (+55,000)
Aurora: 335,000 (+60,000)
Fort Collins: 148,000 (+30,000)
Lakewood: 141,000 (-3,000)

I think it's interesting how large of a drop off there is between the 3rd largest city and the 4th largest city in the state. I don't think that gap will be narrowed any time soon. I even wonder how long it will be before Aurora catches Colorado Springs and Denver? How weird would it be if the largest city in Colorado were a suburb? That is years away, though.

The Denver-Aurora-Boulder CSA will round off at about 3.3 million and rank somewhere from 14th to 17th nationally.

Colorado Springs MSA will be about 650,000. That puts it somewhere in the 80s for national ranking.

Well, what does everyone else have to say?

[Josseppie]

I predict that the Pueblo MSA will top 160,000 people and the city of Pueblo will top 110,000 people.

[EscapeCalifornia]

Originally Posted by Josseppie

I predict that the Pueblo MSA will top 160,000 people and the city of Pueblo will top 110,000 people.

I predict that a lover of a certain kind of music will curse you and all of the cities with a population increase.

[iknowftbll]

Originally Posted by Josseppie

I predict that the Pueblo MSA will top 160,000 people and the city of Pueblo will top 110,000 people.

Wow, Joss, way to go out on a limb!

[Josseppie]

Originally Posted by iknowftbll

Wow, Joss, way to go out on a limb!

LOL. If you want me to go out on a limb that is for the 2020 census. I think there is a good chance the Pueblo MSA could reach 250,000 people if the predictions are right and the alternative energy economy takes off and Pueblo West builds out.

[Bob from down south]

Originally Posted by Josseppie

LOL. If you want me to go out on a limb that is for the 2020 census. I think there is a good chance the Pueblo MSA could reach 250,000 people if the predictions are right and the alternative energy economy takes off and Pueblo West builds out.

If yeast multiplying exponentially in a Petri dish could speak, this is exactly how they'd talk. Right...up...to...the...catastrophic...end.

Josseppie...lead singer of the Yeastie Boyz. Has a certain ring to it.

[Josseppie]

Originally Posted by Bob from down south

If yeast multiplying exponentially in a Petri dish could speak, this is exactly how they'd talk. Right...up...to...the...catastrophic...end.

Odd analogy because cities and states do not grow exponentially. If so Pueblo and Colorado would have been several times larger then we currently are and will be in the next 100 years.

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by Bob from down south

If yeast multiplying exponentially in a Petri dish could speak, this is exactly how they'd talk. Right...up...to...the...catastrophic...end.

Josseppie...lead singer of the Yeastie Boyz. Has a certain ring to it.

That's it! A brew pub in Pueblo, Yeastie Boyz Brew Pub and Grill. I call a ROAD TRIP!

[Bob from down south]

Originally Posted by Josseppie

Odd analogy because cities and states do not grow exponentially. If so Pueblo and Colorado would have been several times larger then we currently are and will be in the next 100 years.

Apparently you were sleeping in whatever passes for math at UCSD.

Populations growing at 2%, or 5%, or 100% annually are all, in fact, undergoing exponential growth--albeit at different rates, but exponential nevertheless. Expressed mathematically, with a starting population P and an annual growth rate of g, population after x years will be P * (1+g)^x, which is an exponential function.

So 2% exponential growth won't get you to the breaking point as fast as 7% growth, but it WILL get you there, and with gathering speed.

It's lack of understanding of this basic high-school math (at least at the high school I went to, which admittedly was not in Pueblo) that has mankind hurtling towards humanitarian disasters of epic proportions in the years to come. But hey, as long as we don't hit the wall in MY back yard and in MY time, FULL SPEED AHEAD, right??


Dr. Albert Bartlett: Arithmetic, Population, and Energy

[Josseppie]

Your figures are correct but your theory has a flaw. Pueblo and Colorado will not grow at the same rate for a extended period of time, just look at the history of the growth in Pueblo and Colorado. If, and if is the key word, the Pueblo MSA would grow to 250,000 people by 2020 there is little chance it would reach 500,000 people by 2030 but more then likely it would take decades for that to occur.