[AntonioR]

I can only have nightmares of how our highways are going to look with not a single state truck plowing them during the storm. In this state they will continue to put people's lives in harms way until someone related to the governor or a high ranking state politician is killed due to unplowed highways, then and only then we will notice that our highways will be squeeky clean in the following storms.

[atgss]

TWC has a very low snow accumulation forecast for my area, the rest say in the 8 - 12 or so inch range.

Who's correct?

Whatever happens, happens but I'll happily accept the lower amounts.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by lol-its-good4U

TWC has a very low snow accumulation forecast for my area, the rest say in the 8 - 12 or so inch range.

Who's correct?

Whatever happens, happens but I'll happily accept the lower amounts.

I think this is because TWC is picking up on a trend that is suggesting a "closer to the coast" track which would mean a period or rain or sleet/mix cutting down on the amounts, though it would up the amounts a little further inland. This link on the TWC site talks about it and has lower totals than NWS so far except in areas like the mid-Hudson Valley and NW Connecticut where the TWC totals are higher than the NWS ones:

https://weather.com/storms/winter/ne...ast-march-2017

Interesting climatology side note, TWC notes that Central Park has had only 4 March storms that truly measured 12" or more and the last one was in 1960 (the famous 1993 March storm had some sleet mix in and fell just short of a foot there).

[ads94]

I must say, thank you Cambium for your aggregation of maps and forecasts. I told everyone I manage to stay home and not bother coming in, they all got me out of hot water with my boss!

[htfdcolt]

NWS BOX talking about a distinct westward shift to the track now...saying changeover to rain may occur S & E of I-95.

[clutchrider]

Later!



Despite an hour delay we got off the ground and it's been smooth sailing/flying. Currently at 30,000 feet which to me is still kinda cool that I can type this while up here. Hope everyone bundles up and is OK, stay warm and safe. I took the safe route and parked my car with a vendor who cleans it off for you. Was not interested in digging out of JFK long term at midnight.

[mels]

Safe travels, clutchrider!

[hunterseat]

Originally Posted by clutchrider

Later!



Despite an hour delay we got off the ground and it's been smooth sailing/flying. Currently at 30,000 feet which to me is still kinda cool that I can type this while up here. Hope everyone bundles up and is OK, stay warm and safe. I took the safe route and parked my car with a vendor who cleans it off for you. Was not interested in digging out of JFK long term at midnight.

I hate you. I know you saw the sign "warm weather or bust" I was waving as you blew by me on the interstate on ramp.

[7 Wishes]

There is definitely talk of a westward shift. OKX seems to think it will only affect SE portions of their forecast area (i.e. Suffolk County on LI and southeastern coastal CT), but notes how it could lower snow totals. That is probably the basis for TWC's reduced snow forecast in coastal areas (though 8-12" is still pretty hefty for those areas for a mid-March storm):

Models in good agreement with a major coastal storm that will impact
the region tonight into Tue Night. This is in response to PAC
energy over the central plains this morning...continuing to dive
into the to the gulf coast and phase with subtropical energy
tonight. A noticeable shift to a deeper phasing across the Gulf
coast is being signaled...providing a more negative tilt to the
phased shortwave energy as it tracks up the coast towards the
area Tuesday morning around digging and closing northern stream
energy through the Great Lakes. This is spelling a significant
shift to the N&W of storm track for Tuesday.

At the surface...the above scenario will allow for low pressure to
develop across the Gulf/SE US coast today...but now track N over the
Carolina coast by late this evening. Models are now spelling a much
farther north track of low pressure up the DelMarVa coast as it
rapidly intensifies Tue morning...eventually veering NE and
tracking close to Montauk Point Tue aft as a 980-ish low. This
a good 50+ mile NW shift of the model guidance from 24 hrs
ago...while also depicting quite a bit stronger low than 24 hrs
ago.

The closer to the coast track points to heavy qpf for the entire
area...but now spells a high likelihood for mixing or changeover to
sleet/rain across E LI/SE CT during the morning into afternoon. If
westward trend continues a bit more...mixing/changeover could occur
into much of western LI. Before any changeover though...6+
inches of snow are still likely across much of E LI and SE CT
in intense snow banding in the morning. If western shift
continues...snowfall across south and eastern coastal areas may
have to reduced further. With high changeover likelihood and a
wetter snow across E LI/SE CT...have converted BlizzardWatch
to a Winter Storm Warning.

[Cambium]

Epic Storm track for NYC, Western Long Island, and Western CT. Epic.


Close enough to give the most precip from the storm, but far enough not to let warm air in.


It's not curving OTS its actually going to curve back in and go north. That's why Eastern MA and Eastern Long Island, Southeastern CT are subject to mixing now. They don't call it the Banana Belt of New England for nothing.


How can a forecast be a bust if you stay on top of them? This 50+ mile shift is common a day before. Even day of a 25 mile wobble is common.


WPC Winter Weather Forecasts





And have you guys been outside right now? Past 3 days? Feels like January. Air is biting cold. Doesn't feel like Mid March.