[simonusa3]

The only real change today seems to be that they think it will farther north (meaning closer to coast). So it looks like they trimmed the winter storm watch/warning off the more marine controlled areas (coastal central and eastern CT) with a winter weather advisory (meaning only 3 to 6 inches of snow). So the only thing to really do tonight and Sat is to see how far north it eventually gets. There really is not much else they can predict.

Here is NWS output as of 3 PM:

[ryanthegoldengod]

It's going to be in the mid 30's tomorrow night. So snow and freezing rain mix probably not amounting to too much. Sorry folks. Another massively overhyped storm.

[ryanthegoldengod]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

I’m guessing the amateur meteorologists are too “busy” to update the group but total QPF has moved much lower and more warm air has invaded. Northern NYC has gone from a foot to snow to no snow in less than 24 hours. 3-6” is the new expectation for folks north of the Merritt.

What part of "major" storm didn't you understand?

[JayCT]

Originally Posted by ryanthegoldengod

It's going to be in the mid 30's tomorrow night. So snow and freezing rain mix probably not amounting to too much. Sorry folks. Another massively overhyped storm.

Not necessarily. Northern and Central Connecticut are still projecting 6 to 12 inches. That’s pretty significant.

[JD_MD]

Originally Posted by SteveM85

Expect pandemonium and chaos at your local Stop and Shops tomorrow

My brother in Branford said it started yesterday afternoon with people fighting over stuff and hoarding.

[ryanthegoldengod]

Originally Posted by JayCT

Not necessarily. Northern and Central Connecticut are still projecting 6 to 12 inches. That’s pretty significant.

I doubt it but we'll see.

[Cambium]

I need to retire so I can post more weather stuff.

Thankfully I'm off tomorrow!


Last 10 updates from the Euro for Bridgeport, CT. This is showing how much precip will fall from the sky with each update from this model. Note the flip flop and the trends.


QPF: (7:1 snow) Will be less snow with mixing or lower ratios but I just used 7:1 to keep it consistent here.

Note the trend... Less precip past 4 runs but consistently over 3/4"

00z: 1.12" (7.8")
12z: 0.60" (4.2")
00z: 1.55" (10.9")
12z: 0.84" (5.8")
00z: 0.38" (2.6")
12z: 1.34" (9.3")
00z: 0.86" (6.0")
12z: 0.74" (5.1")
18z: 0.73" (5.1")
00z: 0.72" (5.0")

===============

Last 16 GFS runs for Bridgeport, CT. Much more liquid falling past 2 updates but the outlier

12z 1.20"
18z: 0.68"
00z: 0.44"
06z: 0.42"
12z: 0.93"
18z: 0.98"
00z: 1.23"
06z: 1.18"
12z: 1.75"
18z: 1.27"
00z: 1.10"
06z: 0.97"
12z: 1.03"
18z: 0.93"
00z: 1.12"
06z: 1.22"

==============

Last 4 NAM model update

12z: 0.75"
18z: 0.77"
00z: 0.87"
06z: 0.68"

[Cambium]

Collage of some forecasts. The coast is the hardest part of forecasting! The cut off line will be nuts.



Current Alerts. Warning for Most of CT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
253 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12
inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Connecticut, western and central
Massachusetts as well as northeast Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

[simonusa3]

So it looks like they have nudged the storm a bit more north overnight- meaning the rain/snow line is moving northward across Connecticut. So it looks like a fair bet that mostly a mix to rain event along the Connecticut coast/Long Island, light amounts of snow/rain mix for southern CT (2 - 4 inches), and some modest snow northern CT (4 - 8 inches).


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
724 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024


NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The fcst is on track this mrng. The models have clustered
around a track, with the low progged to pass about 100 mi or
less S of LI tngt, then slip inside the benchmark and pass E of
Cape Cod on Sun. Based on this latest information, snowfall
amounts have been reduced slightly across the board. The nly
track could introduce some mixing inland, and the speed of the
sys may serve to be a limiting factor as well. At the coasts,
unless something drastic changes, ely flow should keep the llvls
mild and reduce the snowfall potential.

The watch across sern CT has been replaced with an advy. Otherwise,
there were no changes made to the winter weather headlines.

Since the "storm" is slowly slipping out of NWS uptons area (NYC, Southern Connecticut, Northeast New Jersey)...and into the Boston/New England office (northern CT, Mass, NH), the snow map seems to be updating faster up in Boston. Their output this morning looks like this is mostly going to a northern CT/Massachusetts north storm. So those following the storm should check the Boston page more as time goes on. NYC is now forecast to get 1 inch of snow or less.

[Wilton2ParkAve]

A few of us were ahead of the NWS in seeing the north/warm. Glad they finally capitulated - they often just let it ride.