[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

To get normal highs in the 30’s one must go north into New England, the Great lakes, or the Upper Midwest/Mt West:

HARTFORD NORMAL HIGH = 41 "today". In about 3 days it will be upper 30s. In about 2 weeks it will be mid 30s.

CPC's "8-14 day" map of Above normal temps with that Big Red A is above entire NorthEast/New England... Vermont, Massachusettes included. So if Hartford gets to Upper 30s, low 40s in 2 weeks it will be considered "above" normal.

Source: Windsor Locks Daily Normals

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

HARTFORD NORMAL HIGH = 41 "today". In about 3 days it will be upper 30s. In about 2 weeks it will be mid 30s.

CPC's "8-14 day" map of Above normal temps with that Big Red A is above entire NorthEast/New England... Vermont, Massachusettes included. So if Hartford gets to Upper 30s, low 40s in 2 weeks it will be considered "above" normal.

Source: Windsor Locks Daily Normals

Not really sure what your debating? In about two weeks it will be January (lol).

BRIDGEPORT NORMAL HIGH = 43 “today” In about 3 days it will be 42 F (and will be above 39 F until the last few days of the month). Central Park today 44 F…in 3 days 43 F….Stamford/New London/New Haven…etc all have normal highs in the 40’s until the last few days of the month.

Windsor Locks is 5 miles from the Massachusetts state line – obviously the northern most station in the Tri-State area will be the coolest. The normal highs at most of the NWS Tri-State area stations in the first 26 days of December (another words “most of the month”) is in the 40’s.


True, CPC’s 8-14 map shows above normal temps across much of the East Coast. So a warm first part of winter seems on track

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Windsor Locks is 5 miles from the Massachusetts state line – obviously the northern most station in the Tri-State area will be the coolest. The normal highs at most of the NWS Tri-State area stations in the first 26 days of December (another words “most of the month”) is in the 40’s.

True, CPC’s 8-14 map shows above normal temps across much of the East Coast. So a warm first part of winter seems on track

Starting Dec. 21, Normal at the coast is 40 & drops to 38 by the 31st.

Last I checked Hartford and Litchfield, and northern CT was included in this "CT" weather thread. So when CPC puts out an "above" normal map , it means upper 30s is above normal... and to some people thats cold.

I was looking back at some numbers from last month; we hit 60s and upper 50s . Thats warm. Going to 40s in December is just normal. Only "warm" day coming is maybe Thursday when it gets into the 50s again. Huge difference from last year, thats for sure.

December 12

Todays record High in Bridgeport is 58 set back in 2008
Record low is 3 set in 1988
Highest snowfall for todays date is 7" in 1960
Highest rainfall for todays date is 2.10" in 2010

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Starting Dec. 21, Normal at the coast is 40 & drops to 38 by the 31st.

Last I checked Hartford and Litchfield, and northern CT was included in this "CT" weather thread. So when CPC puts out an "above" normal map , it means upper 30s is above normal... and to some people thats cold.

I was looking back at some numbers from last month; we hit 60s and upper 50s . Thats warm. Going to 40s in December is just normal. Only "warm" day coming is maybe Thursday when it gets into the 50s again. Huge difference from last year, thats for sure.

Ok, now I understand, you were saying highs drop below 40 F near the end of the month. True, by December 26th, the normal high falls below 40 F at most area NWS stations. Yes, it’s not uncommon for parts of the Tri-State to see 50’s and 60’s in December – even 70’s have occurred. I don’t see 60’s or 70’s of course, but I do see chances for 50’s in the coming few weeks. You never really know.

One other note that weather-watches might find interesting and good/bad depending on perspective:

Normally, we have a good picture around Dec 12 – 14 if there will be a white XMASS in the USA. The pattern remains typical of a weak La Nina - with the cold weather in the West and northern Plains and the warmth across the East half of the USA. The storm track has been from the southwest to the western Great Lakes as I mentioned several times before. Of course, the NAO - remains positive, so no blocking and therefore no real chance of a cold air and big snow making it down to the Tri-State area and points south on the East Coast. Although normally we have a green XMASS in coastal areas of the Tri-State area (coastal CT/Long Island/coastal NJ), parts of northern CT and NW NJ have about a 35 - 40 % of a white XMASS normally. However, even these areas my be green on XMASS in this pattern:



So the chances of a white XMASS seem to be falling fast on the East Coast below upper New England:

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Ok, now I understand, you were saying highs drop below 40 F near the end of the month. True, by December 26th, the normal high falls below 40 F at most area NWS stations. Yes, it’s not uncommon for parts of the Tri-State to see 50’s and 60’s in December – even 70’s have occurred. I don’t see 60’s or 70’s of course, but I do see chances for 50’s in the coming few weeks. You never really know.

One other note that weather-watches might find interesting and good/bad depending on perspective:

Normally, we have a good picture around Dec 12 – 14 if there will be a white XMASS in the USA. The pattern remains typical of a weak La Nina - with the cold weather in the West and northern Plains and the warmth across the East half of the USA. The storm track has been from the southwest to the western Great Lakes as I mentioned several times before. Of course, the NAO - remains positive, so no blocking and therefore no real chance of a cold air and big snow making it down to the Tri-State area and points south on the East Coast. Although normally we have a green XMASS in coastal areas of the Tri-State area (coastal CT/Long Island/coastal NJ), parts of northern CT and NW NJ have about a 35 - 40 % of a white XMASS normally. However, even these areas my be green on XMASS in this pattern:



So the chances of a white XMASS seem to be falling fast on the East Coast below upper New England:

Definitely a slow start to winter , but winter has a way of sucker punching the warm weather fans when they let their guard down(ala last year ) Heck last year till Christmas it was downright docile, even warmer than this year. Remember ..winter has not STARTED yet. The weather is normal right now. Also remember that most of CT has well under a half a chance of snow on Christmas... nothing abnormal has happened yet..Well, except a snowstorm to end all snowstorms in October...

[Cambium]

Good morning. Heads up Thursday Morning especially North of I-84 (maybe north of Merrit as well)

"SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO SUGGEST A PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH...IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO MAKE TRAVEL CONDITIONS SLICK IN SPOTS FOR THURSDAY MORNING."


Forecasted temps last night were 31 and they dropped to low 20s again. So be careful looking at the forecasted lows, they are actually going a little lower.

This was from last nights update:

HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES DOWN BASED ON
TRENDS TONIGHT. A VEIL OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND
LIGHT WINDS HAS DONE LITTLE TO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING. MANY
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW
FREEZING...SO HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product....&highlight=off

[Cambium]

Ok, I checked the time for it...Looks like any frozen precip will be between 3am-7am Thursday.

This is the Sounding for Windsor. Shows you the temp for the different layers of atmosphere. Follow the 0 degree line diagnolly up(yellow). Anything to the left of that line is below freezing.

Red line is the temperature. Left hand column shows the altitude. 1000 = surface.

Left image is one model, right image is another. Notice the right model has slightly warmer temps, this would be a cold rain. Model on the left has temps that stay at or below freezing all the way down to surface. This is why they mentioned frozen precip. There's a chance for it.



I havent mentioned the dates of 17th and 22nd only because I just dont see consistancy anymore or anything significant...and dates are changing every day. I am "starting" to see consistancy and a pattern that would favor a storm around the 24th-25th.

[wavehunter007]

^^^^

Yes, there could be a brief mix with some freezing rain up near the Massachusetts state line…but with the southerly flow setting up, all areas in the Tri-State should see precip quickly change over to rain with the Wed night/Thru system. Even areas north of the Tri-State area (Great Lakes/New England) will see rain with this system as in moves into the eastern Lakes on Thur afternoon I think.

As far as what lies ahead for the end of December and into the first two weeks of January...the pattern should change little from the way it looks right now. PNA – (Pacific/North America Pattern) remains neutral and now looks like it will go negative. So this means….trough and cold in the West (Southern CA had snow this morning in higher elevations) and warmth/ridge in the East (so far this month only three days failed to reach 80 F or higher in Miami). With the NAO positive and no blocking any time soon, snow will struggle to fall and really struggle to stay on the ground on the East Coast from the Tri-State area (NYC/NJ/CT) southward. The storm track from the southwest high Plains to the western Great Lakes looks to stay the same at least until mid/late January.

The newest ECMWF model long range output for North America is out…and this is what it looks like. There are some indications that much of the East Coast will become even milder (and quite dry) the first week of January. It will be interesting to watch what unfolds…

AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Forecast Clues into the New Year (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-clues-into-the-new-year/58853 - broken link)







.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

^^^^

Yes, there could be a brief mix with some freezing rain up near the Massachusetts state line…but with the southerly flow setting up, all areas in the Tri-State should see precip quickly change over to rain with the Wed night/Thru system. Even areas north of the Tri-State area (Great Lakes/New England) will see rain with this system as in moves into the eastern Lakes on Thur afternoon I think.

As far as what lies ahead for the end of December and into the first two weeks of January...the pattern should change little from the way it looks right now. PNA – (Pacific/North America Pattern) remains neutral and now looks like it will go negative. So this means….trough and cold in the West (Southern CA had snow this morning in higher elevations) and warmth/ridge in the East (so far this month only three days failed to reach 80 F or higher in Miami). With the NAO positive and no blocking any time soon, snow will struggle to fall and really struggle to stay on the ground on the East Coast from the Tri-State area (NYC/NJ/CT) southward. The storm track from the southwest high Plains to the western Great Lakes looks to stay the same at least until mid/late January.

The newest ECMWF model long range output for North America is out…and this is what it looks like. There are some indications that much of the East Coast will become even milder (and quite dry) the first week of January. It will be interesting to watch what unfolds…

AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Forecast Clues into the New Year (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-clues-into-the-new-year/58853 - broken link)







.

This December reminds me alot of last December, same pattern and there was much talk of a warm winter with no snow. That didn't pan out very well did it....

I doubt we will see last years pattern develop but long term forecasting outside of 10 days is USELESS...lets face it ..wrong as much as right.

[7 Wishes]

This Accuweather article is interesting not just for the story, but the map that shows the historical chance not of a white Christmas per se, but of having 5" or more on the ground on Dec. 25. That is quite low, the 20% line is just south of the CT/MA border.......

http://www.accuweather.com/en/outdoor-articles/outdoor-living/why-we-hope-for-a-white-christ-1/58856 (broken link)