12-13-2011, 02:40 PM
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
7 Wishes
This Accuweather article is interesting not just for the story, but the map that shows the historical chance not of a white Christmas per se, but of having 5" or more on the ground on Dec. 25. That is quite low, the 20% line is just south of the CT/MA border.......AccuWeather.com - Outdoor - Why We Hope for a White Christmas (But Probably Won't Have One) (http://www.accuweather.com/en/outdoor-articles/outdoor-living/why-we-hope-for-a-white-christ-1/58856 - broken link)
That is an interesting map…but I actually saw that a few years ago.
It doesn’t really surprise me that the line is so far from southern Connecticut/Long Island/NYC and points south, but it is a bit surprising to see that 20% line up near Massachusetts. When one conjures up images of old fashioned Christmas time in New England and Boston countryside, the image of deep snow is what many think of.
On the other hand…I have a few friends who live outside of Atlantic City, NJ, and they saw they have seen only a handful of white Christmas in 30 years. So the line of white XMASS vs. no white XMASS is very sharp on the East Coast it seems.
12-13-2011, 02:57 PM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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Did things change regarding the Dec. 19-21 storm? I see NWS is only showing "mostly cloudy" for the 19th and 20th now (they were showing rain chances for the 19th yesterday). Temps definitely too warm for anything other than wet snow (mid 40s in NYC, so I'm assuming only see 30s in NW CT and adjacent upstate NY/western MA), but I know Accuweather was already saying that part today. Just wondering.....
12-13-2011, 03:19 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
7 Wishes
Did things change regarding the Dec. 19-21 storm? I see NWS is only showing "mostly cloudy" for the 19th and 20th now (they were showing rain chances for the 19th yesterday). Temps definitely too warm for anything other than wet snow (mid 40s in NYC, so I'm assuming only see 30s in NW CT and adjacent upstate NY/western MA), but I know Accuweather was already saying that part today. Just wondering.....
Still long range , forecasts will change because data flowing into the models are changing.
Light rain tomorrow.
19th storm back in the game now and details will be ironed out soon.
24th storm is the one to keep your eye on. If the southern Jet and polar jet phase at the right time it would mean a hefty storm for us. Too far out still but the "potential" is there.
This is for the 20th... If that low shifts south it would mean some snow for parts of CT. I'm more concerned about the 24th actually.
12-13-2011, 05:30 PM
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
7 Wishes
Did things change regarding the Dec. 19-21 storm? I see NWS is only showing "mostly cloudy" for the 19th and 20th now (they were showing rain chances for the 19th yesterday). Temps definitely too warm for anything other than wet snow (mid 40s in NYC, so I'm assuming only see 30s in NW CT and adjacent upstate NY/western MA), but I know Accuweather was already saying that part today. Just wondering.....
I think your right, based on most of the forecasts they are putting out at this point. The southeast ridge looks to stay strong right through XMASS. This should result in the most storms passing to the north and west of CT/NYC/NJ. It looks like it will be pretty mild on the 19th and 20th in most of the Tri-State area.
.
12-13-2011, 07:55 PM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
This is for the 20th... If that low shifts south it would mean some snow for parts of CT. I'm more concerned about the 24th actually.
Yeah, AccuWeather's long range forecast (they actually go 15 days!) mentions some "stuff" for Christmas Eve and Day. That would be funny after all the talk (and I don't mean from Wavehunter, but by the weather people themselves) about no chance of it being "a white one" this Holiday Season (apparently there was a big Xmas Eve storm locally in 1966 and as I'm sure most remember, in 2002 rain turned to ice and snow during the course of Xmas Day). Almost as funny as it snowing just before Halloween and then not even a flurry well into December......
12-13-2011, 08:14 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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From Larry Cosgrove. Still far away but when you can recognize other features sometimes it helps with "possibilities"
I noticed this looking at the 500mb pattern lately.
Quote:
There are important changes in the upper atmospheric pattern that will lead to an alteration in the national weather scene before the Christmas weekend.
Like I said, lets get through this week first before going over any potential with that storm. Just know the atmosphere is ready to be amped up.
Here's your Non Bias "CT Weather" forecast. Warmest days of the week come Thursday and Friday getting to low 50s then a sharp cold front comes through and temps stay below normal for the weekend. A storm off shore on Sunday will keep us cloudy with flurries around as high temps stay in the mid 30s.
12-14-2011, 05:48 AM
Location: Connecticut
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Again, I am getting tired of the attacks and flames on this thread. I will no longer tolerate these comments on this thread. If it continues, I will begin banning posters. JayCT, Moderator
12-14-2011, 10:02 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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December 20 & 24 Storm Update:
Just want to post a couple of things but first mention how every update is different and has a whole different senario. The "potential" is there for these dates.. Not the 16th, not the 23rd, not the 9th.. 2 Storms showing up...one around Dec.20th (could be 19th or 21st)... AND one on December 24 (could be 23rd or 25th) OR it can be nothing.
Because its constantly showing up I'm confident at least one of them will happen.
Once time gets closer we go over temps and track.
Ok..... Here is last nights update.. Has a storm on the 21st and NONE on the 25th. This "would" be a snow to a lot of rain back to light snow event.
This is the last update:
Storm on the 21st. This "would" also be a rain to snow event and most likely accumulating since the trough is deeper and more negative with a stronger storm.
Also from last update shows one on the 25th. This stays far enough off shore to not only bring less precip into the area but keep things cold and provide light snow showers.
Moral of story... things will change until we get closer.
Models are not handling the atmosphere well and the phasing of the jets. But the potential is there and we'll have to keep an eye on it.
12-14-2011, 03:19 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quick heads up again if you're leaving early tomorrow and in Northern Tier of CT. Some advisories are out for southern NH, MA, and VT for a coating of ice between 2-5am...No advisories for CT but the NWS does mention probable in their text discussion. Im thinking 84 north and Rt6 north to be cautious.. .
12-14-2011, 04:04 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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From TWC. NWCT now in the "Possible" range.
This is based on the 2 systems we're following. Still too soon to know.
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Geographical mobility - Same house 1 year ago (%)
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Housing units in structures - 1, detached (%)
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Housing units in structures - 20 to 49 (%)
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Means of transportation to work - Carpooled (%)
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People in Group quarters - On base (%)
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People in Group quarters - Transient quarters for temporary residents (%)
People in Group quarters - Military ships (%)
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People in Group quarters - Other workers' dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Crews of maritime vessels (%)
People in Group quarters - Other nonhousehold living situations (%)
People in Group quarters - Other noninstitutional group quarters (%)
Residents speaking English at home (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking other language at home (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Foreign born (%)
Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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