[Lowerdeck]

Originally Posted by Cambium

5th looks to be rain...

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 37.


Or not.

Wednesday looks to be good with rain, and highs around 60. Fun for the first week of December.

[Cambium]

Positive PNA, Negative NAO. Just in time for the moisture after the 4th!

[Cambium]

National Weather Service Text Product Display

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BLOCKING UPPER HIGH S OF GREENLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD... AND
PER THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF...STEER A DIGGING NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT-SAT...AND
THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT NIGHT-
SUNDAY... WITH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND NOW BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT-
MON...ESPECIALLY TO LONG ISLAND/CT...WITH H8 TEMPS AND PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ALL SUPPORTING SNOW. THE 12Z GGEM THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
SUPPORTS THIS GENERAL IDEA...WHILE THE MUCH SLOWER 12Z GFS IS AT
LEAST A DAY LATER AND MORE THAN A DOLLAR SHORT IN BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM ABOUT...WITH THE BULK OF ITS PRECIP REMAINING OFFSHORE MON
NIGHT-TUE. DUE TO THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY HAVE FORECAST ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY...WITH P-TYPE SNOW INLAND...
AND RAIN/SNOW AT THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND ALL SNOW AT NIGHT.

[Cambium]

So right now:

One model trended North and bombs out at the coast bringing snow to our area.
One model agrees with a storm for Sunday but less amounts
One model is slower and shows the storm on the 6th not the 5th and stays off shore

So until the models all agree they are leaving the forecast at "slight chance of precip with rain/snow during the day at coast and then snow at night"

[wavehunter007]

I would watch the NAO forecast excitement: With a negative NAO (cold air driven south into the USA)…comes dry weather to the East Coast. It will turn colder in the Tri-State/middle East Coast…but it will also become drier.

[Miley Tipton]

hi everyone,
I am hoping a snowfall here, but Its still 56F here.. so Chances are less....

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Miley Tipton

hi everyone,
I am hoping a snowfall here, but Its still 56F here.. so Chances are less....

Huh?

Not supposed to snow today or tomorrow.

Oh I see, you think the 56 will last for weeks and months.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I would watch the NAO forecast excitement: With a negative NAO (cold air driven south into the USA)…comes dry weather to the East Coast. It will turn colder in the Tri-State/middle East Coast…but it will also become drier.

Huh? We've had negative NAO for months and had a wet senario...I think you're talking about the PNA.

[Cambium]

We're within 5 days now and models decided to follow the GFS...The one model that showed nothing.

Lets see if they change... LaNina Sucks! We're going to repeat 2006-2007 and that would mean more complaints from me. lol

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

So right now:

One model trended North and bombs out at the coast bringing snow to our area.
One model agrees with a storm for Sunday but less amounts
One model is slower and shows the storm on the 6th not the 5th and stays off shore

So until the models all agree they are leaving the forecast at "slight chance of precip with rain/snow during the day at coast and then snow at night"

Now...this is the right way to present a potential snow All the facts, and showing ALL the possibilities.