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How many Ebola cases would it take for America to completely shut down, at this point i'm thinking about a dozen.
I doubt that a dozen cases would lead to a complete shut down but it we were to see a few cases pop up in several different locations by Thanksgiving (7 weeks away) then I think we will see people modifying their behavior, reducing, as much as possible, trips to places like shopping malls, movie theaters, restaurants, etc. and looking for other options such as shopping on line, watching movies at home and eating in. Black Friday might not see hoards of shoppers waiting for the doors to open at some ridiculously early hour. Package delivery services such as UPS and FedEx may see a boom in business. Gift cards for many stores are now readily available at most grocery stores and I think they could become quite popular, rather than going out to shop for gifts.
In ten weeks most colleges will be heading toward their winter breaks and students will be traveling home. If part of the nation was dealing with a bad snow storm that disrupted flights and left thousands stranded at airports for a day or more I think that could be a very bad scenario.
I can foresee that many people would try to do at least some stocking up of foodstuffs and water but I do not see most trying to suddenly become "extreme preppers" since it's just not possible. The pharmaceutical companies have said they will/have made between 151 and 159 million doses of flu vaccine and I think that every one of them will get used this year and that many people who want one will not be able to get one. However, if people are opting to avoid unnecessary outings that would likely help to reduce the transmission of influenza to those not vaccinated.
It is disconcerting that the WHO admits that beyond December they have no plan. In the three countries most affected there is starting to be an effort to make training and supplies available to the community so that family members can try to nurse the stricken at home since the shortage of available beds/treatment centers and the people to staff them is so bad. In Lofa County in Liberia such efforts have made a big difference, enough that MSF intends to downsize thier treatment center from 140 beds down to just a 40 bed facility so maybe that will be the way to go and it may make a difference in the more rural areas but I'm not sure how well it could be carried out in the larger cities. WHO | Liberia: working with communities is the key to stopping Ebola
The panic is kind of fun to watch, but everything is going to be alright (more or less).
Nigeria is the best example of what is likely to happen here. One Ebola stricken traveler arrived in Nigeria from Liberia. In the course of caring for the patient, a number of health care workers contracted the disease. And more health care workers may have contracted the disease caring for those sick health care workers.
But over time the hospitals were able to care for the patients without additional health care workers becoming ill and the government tracked down and isolated all that had been exposed. Now after 20 persons contracted the disease (with eight deaths) there have been no new cases for a month and Nigeria is Ebola free - at least until the next infected person arrives from Liberia, Sierra Leone, or Guinea.
The thing is, Nigeria is vulnerable anyway since Ebola is carried by bats. This country was not vulnerable except no one thought to shut the barn door and not let the wolves in in the first place. Now Ebola is in the United States and Spain. For even eight people to die is bad. For perspective, that's more deaths than the Manson Family murders or the Son of Sam murders.
why did the new nurse travel? She was there with the patient who died, think the last thing you do is travel when you are anywhere near a contamination area? they said she called the CDC, stay put!
That has absolutely nothing to do with this discussion. I realize that other things are far more deadly than Ebola, but the flu has always been here while Ebola was isolated to one continent before this outbreak, and it has a 70% mortality rate. It's nothing like the flu.
Well no kidding, but the risk of actually being on a plane with it is so low to begin with. That was the point. Not how likely is contracting ebola on a plane IF people on the plane have it.
Well, the feverish ebola confirmed nurse on the flight to Cleveland shared the plane with 132 other passengers, that then went on to five other connecting flights before being decontaminated.
Passports - they're marvelous things. They have, right there on the cover, the nationality of the passport holder. Inside, they have all these pages which customs officials are supposed to stamp as the person enters a country (or the EU, which is a group of countries).
I don't understand why people think we can't do a better job of monitoring who is entering our country from where. It doesn't matter that they go through Europe - their passports should be stamped as they enter the EU FROM West Africa or wherever.
Kathryn, thanks for stating this - again!
These folks who say - there's no way to stop people coming to US from Africa - must not get out very much.
I was speaking in general because many people have come here saying we have more important things to worry about than Ebola, like flu, enterovirus, TB, etc., with higher death counts. All very true, but this is about Ebola, which needn't be in this country in the first place, is highly infectious and very deadly. Unlike flu, it doesn't care if you are young, old, healthy, unhealthy. It can infect anyone who comes in contact with it at certain stages. As with all viruses, some people can produce antibodies naturally, but anyone else infected are in for a horrible experience whether they live or die.
These folks who say - there's no way to stop people coming to US from Africa - must not get out very much.
I agree. What the heck? It's like they think you can go anywhere in the world without asking for permission, just by country hopping. I don't think that's how it works, or at least I hope not. In a post-9/11 world, that can't be true.
Duncan didn't even know he had Ebola. He had helped a sick women but didn't they say they thought she had malaria? He had the tickets and must have had the visa quite a while in advance of his trip. I don't blame him as much as I blame that nurse who KNEW she had been exposed, had medical training and knowledge, was supposed to be in quarantine, and still hopped on a plane.
NO, not really.
Duncan, her brother Sonny Boy, and father took her to a secondary clinic as an emergency (she couldn't even walk) - Blessings Home Clinic (not a hospital) - where they assumed malaria but she crashed. They TOLD THEM TO LEAVE and take her to an EBOLA clinic. So they were driving around Monrovia in a taxi to the clinics but they had no beds. So they went home. Sept 15th. She couldn't walk, they were carrying her. She was in late stage pregnancy.
The father was Duncan's landlord. Besides that, I also wondered if Duncan was her baby's father since APPARENTLY he felt obligated to spend all day helping.
Anyway, they went home after failing to get seen in an EBOLA CLINIC, as instructed.
She died HOURS later at 3 AM.
FOUR DAYS before Duncan left to come here. Sept 19. So when someone asked "have you been around anybody with Ebola" he says NO. Hey how about "WELL, I WAS DRIVING AROUND IN A TAXI LOOKING FOR A BED IN AN EBOLA CLINIC WITH A LADY WHO'S DEAD NOW". LOL.
There was NO DOUBT in his mind that EBOLA was LIKELY.
He left with NO PRIOR notice to his "friends" (landlord) that he was living with.
There was only ONE article giving the timeline of what Duncan did that week before he came here but also explaining that it's quite common in the culture in Africa to just lie about your symptoms, associations and reality. A culture of denial and wishful thinking. Her brother and neighbor who took care of her also died a few days later. Her own PARENTS kept denying to the neighbors that she died of ebola and they were freaking out too, and mad at the family when it came out. Stigma, etc.
Of course the ARTICLE(s) are all dependent on the attitude of the authors whether they want to CLAIM he thought she had malaria or not. See the heading?
They could have easily changed it to "Texas Ebola Patient was Searching for Ebola Clinic Four Days before Coming to US".
Yes, the known facts suggest he planned on coming here if you factor in that he quit his job abruptly with no explanation on Sept 4th.
I think it would be QUITE EASY to check when he got his visa but of course nobody is interested in that so they just let everyone SPECULATE.
One thing stands out. These people are able to walk around and function just a week before dying. Her brother was carrying her to various Ebola hospitals and was dead himself just days later.
Nobody knows what Duncan's temp was the day he flew so it just proves that taking temps at airports only keeps the more symptomatic people out.
And ironically this second nurse is said to be in worse condition than the first one who didn't travel.
I haven't made a case either way for travel limitations but it's CLEAR that people aren't going to use the "honor system" and if the CULTURE IN AFRICA is actually to live in denial and ignorance, then it makes perfect sense to prohibit people who have been in ebola countries out of HERE for awhile.
Probably the ONLY thing that has kept other people from coming here with it is poverty. This Duncan guy had a decent job and was living in a shack renting a room but had relatives here. And I read one of them visited him a month or so before he came here so this was probably in the works. And why he kept it hush hush.
Maybe they went to an embassy or something with him. Who knows. The REPORTERS aren't interested in that "contact tracing".
Last edited by runswithscissors; 10-16-2014 at 05:50 AM..
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