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Old 03-04-2020, 12:21 PM
 
3,072 posts, read 1,300,931 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aredhel View Post
But the should be reporting both, as that is helpful data for the epidemiologists. Two positive cases out of 100 people tested is far different from two cases positive out of 5,000 tested. The CDC needs the denominator, not just the numerator.

On the good news front, the virus seems to have mutated, and the less-lethal strain is outcompeting the more lethal strain: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coro...-covid-19.html Fingers crossed that we may be dealing with the less-lethal version!

They claim the more lethal strain is unfortunately the one going around Europe but inevitably the same thing will occur everywhere over time in that the strong strain will be burned out and the weaker one will become dominant. Strains that are too effective killing their hosts will lose out.

 
Old 03-04-2020, 12:22 PM
 
20,716 posts, read 19,357,373 times
Reputation: 8280
Quote:
Originally Posted by ocnjgirl View Post
Yes, and the things they’re thinking of trying next are really not going to help, such as payroll tax cuts. What good is a payroll tax cut going to be if you can’t work? No one is paying auto mechanics or waitresses or roofers to stay home for a month.



You are using the fallacy of the perfect solution. That is what unemployment is for ,food stamps etc. When the economy tail spins, if the politicians do what they do best which is squabble, the automatic stabilizers will kick in and automatically trigger extensions and support. Would be better to have a more targeted policy , but during the last crisis this is what ran the economy.



https://www.cbo.gov/publication/51005




Note that it went to zero around 2016.
 
Old 03-04-2020, 12:25 PM
 
Location: colorado springs, CO
9,512 posts, read 6,099,317 times
Reputation: 28836
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikala43 View Post
The United States now has a total of 118 cases: 70 domestic and 48 repatriated (45 from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, and 3 from Wuhan, China). Domestic cases by state:
27 in Washington State (including 9 deaths)
20 in California
4 in Illinois
3 in Florida
3 in Oregon
2 in Arizona
2 in Georgia
2 in Massachusetts
2 in New York
2 in Rhode Island
1 in New Hampshire
1 in North Carolina
1 in Wisconsin


Worldometers
Are all 9 deaths in Washington? If so that is a 33.33% fatality rate? WTH??? Even if not; 9 out of 118 is a 7.62% fatality rate.

Influenza in the US has a 0.1% fatality rate. This is ominous.
 
Old 03-04-2020, 12:26 PM
 
Location: NMB, SC
43,080 posts, read 18,252,401 times
Reputation: 34961
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aredhel View Post
But the should be reporting both, as that is helpful data for the epidemiologists. Two positive cases out of 100 people tested is far different from two cases positive out of 5,000 tested. The CDC needs the denominator, not just the numerator.

On the good news front, the virus seems to have mutated, and the less-lethal strain is outcompeting the more lethal strain: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coro...-covid-19.html Fingers crossed that we may be dealing with the less-lethal version!
Well the CDC doesn't think so ro maybe the CDC is collecting it but not reporting it on their website.
 
Old 03-04-2020, 12:27 PM
 
Location: Spain
12,722 posts, read 7,572,348 times
Reputation: 22634
Quote:
Originally Posted by elnina View Post
I watched Walking Dead and I am prepared too...
Strike those who are coughing in the head. The body shots won't take them down.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Javacoffee View Post
Us too! LOL. If this thing gets into our water supply, forget it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by coschristi View Post
My first concern is that the virus could survive in tap water.
Boil the water. https://www.who.int/water_sanitation...ater_01_15.pdf

Based on these results, it is considered that the process of heating water to a rolling boil, as recommended in the WHO Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality (WHO, 2011), is sufficient to inactivate pathogenic bacteria, viruses and protozoa.
 
Old 03-04-2020, 12:27 PM
 
Location: Omaha, Nebraska
10,352 posts, read 7,984,186 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMO45 View Post
They claim the more lethal strain is unfortunately the one going around Europe but inevitably the same thing will occur everywhere over time in that the strong strain will be burned out and the weaker one will become dominant. Strains that are too effective killing their hosts will lose out.
That's why taking steps to slow down (not stop) the virus's spread is helpful. It buys much-needed time for events like this mutation to happen. The tricky part is figuring out where the balance lies: too little social distancing and the virus still continues to spread fast and people will die unnecessarily because the hospitals get overwhelmed, too much and we tank the economy (which also harms people greatly). It's a tough balancing act.
 
Old 03-04-2020, 12:28 PM
 
3,072 posts, read 1,300,931 times
Reputation: 1755
Quote:
Originally Posted by coschristi View Post
Are all 9 deaths in Washington? If so that is a 33.33% fatality rate? WTH??? Even if not; 9 out of 118 is a 7.62% fatality rate.

Influenza in the US has a 0.1% fatality rate. This is ominous.

All deaths except one occurred in sick people in the nursing home. Remember that all cases outside of there so far 0 deaths, many of them have recovered or are in good condition. Its all about who your sample size is. The young populations of Singapore and Thailand have had one death out of 200 something cases and vast majority cleared as recovered.
 
Old 03-04-2020, 12:32 PM
 
20,716 posts, read 19,357,373 times
Reputation: 8280
Quote:
Originally Posted by coschristi View Post
Are all 9 deaths in Washington? If so that is a 33.33% fatality rate? WTH??? Even if not; 9 out of 118 is a 7.62% fatality rate.

Influenza in the US has a 0.1% fatality rate. This is ominous.



Was that not a nursing home involved in Washington state?


A vulnerable demographic to say the least. In fact if I had to model the most likely state to take a hit would be West coast in northern latitudes. I would have picked that state in a wild guess. I would also pick a nursing home as the worst case scenario.
 
Old 03-04-2020, 12:35 PM
 
3,072 posts, read 1,300,931 times
Reputation: 1755
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwynedd1 View Post
Was that not a nursing home involved in Washington state?


A vulnerable demographic to say the least. In fact if I had to model the most likely state to take a hit would be West coast in northern latitudes. I would have picked that state in a wild guess. I would also pick a nursing home as the worst case scenario.

2 more deaths in there announced...as I said I think it'll be 2-4 more a day for the next few days
 
Old 03-04-2020, 12:37 PM
 
20,716 posts, read 19,357,373 times
Reputation: 8280
Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMO45 View Post
All deaths except one occurred in sick people in the nursing home. Remember that all cases outside of there so far 0 deaths, many of them have recovered or are in good condition. Its all about who your sample size is. The young populations of Singapore and Thailand have had one death out of 200 something cases and vast majority cleared as recovered.

Yes young populations , however diamond princess is not a young population. I like my solstice theory so far. 1% death rate 5% serious with a mean 40s median 60s kind of demographic. The common thread is UV light.



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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