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There are two paths to herd immunity for covid19 : vaccines, and natural infection. Yes, the latter is not a desirable way to achieve H.I. , but it exists nonetheless
Herd immunity can also be reached when a sufficient number of people in the population have recovered from a disease and have developed antibodies against future infection. For example, those who survived the 1918 flu (influenza) pandemic were later immune to infection with the H1N1 flu, a subtype of influenza A. During the 2009-10 flu season, H1N1 caused the respiratory infection in humans that was commonly referred to as swine flu.
First, remember the Spanish flu actually is H1N1. They are the same flu.
H1N1 returned to be named Swine Flu epidemic back in the 70s (it may have returned without being so noted in the media even before then). I was active duty military at the time and was mandated to take the vaccination (even though it was known to kill people itself). Yet, three decades later--a generation--H1N1 returned as an epidemic.
So much for "infectious herd immunity;" as I said, a new generation is born to suffer the epidemic all over again.
...The US SG came out and told us it was HARMFUL to do so, in part because we cannot do so correctly, that we'd touch it too much and infect ourselves via our hands picking up particles.
Yes... where has Mr. Adams been these last few weeks ?
Given the void of leadership from trump/pence, I sure do miss the likes of Luther L. Terry, and C. Everett Koop.
Last edited by JG183; 06-23-2020 at 10:52 PM..
Reason: sp
My point is let the experts handle the new positive cases data, because they know the changing nature of how tests were conducted, how many tests were conducted for each state/county, etc. As a 'layperson', comparing the number of daily positive cases from May 15 to number of daily positive cases today for a certain county does not make sense at all. That is exactly what is happening. Websites like worldometers and news media are responsible for this panic because they are not giving you the right context. Reporting daily new cases on a daily basis as the main metric is counter-intuitive and they know it and they continue to do it.
5% infection rate in a population today and a month ago should not lead to a decision of herd immunity. It's probably still possible to contain at 5%.
I like data! Pull the slider across to see the change over time:
Different countries have different approaches. Canada closed borders March 15 to all but citizens and landed immigrants. Recent easing of restrictions means families will no longer be separated by the border. The USA did not close borders, hoping that the economy would thrive during pandemic. Instead, it seems like the pandemic has spread unabated throughout the country.
Islands are lucky because they can stop contamination while ensuring supply chains continue. Without the tourist industry, those islands will quickly run into debt to powerful suppliers. New Zealand is virus free, but exports are not enough to sustain the import industry.
The US borders are closed. It was at Trumps insistence that the Canadian and Mexican borders were closed. It's by joint agreements. So that is not a different approach.
Quote:
THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT has extended its agreements with Mexico and Canada to keep the northern and southern U.S. borders closed to non-essential travel for another month over concerns about the spread of the coronavirus.
Rebellious or not, I don't think we'd have such a problem getting people to mask had they not flipped flopped on the issue. The US SG came out and told us it was HARMFUl to do so, in part because we cannot do so correctly, that we'd touch it too much and infect ourselves via our hands picking up particles.
And I've ranted about that.
If the medical experts had said from the beginning: "Everyone needs to wear a new N-95 mask each day, but give priority to the medical community," that would have made N-95 masks an instant market worth billions. It would have been worth it for companies that don't make masks to day to convert to mask making (with a few pennies license fee going to 3M for every mask made by another company under their license).
It was clear that they lied about masks being ineffective, or else they wouldn't have worried about masks for the medical community.
Fouci says even now that the reason they said what they did was specifically to protect their own supply...not because masks didn't actually work.
But that lie wasn't necessary in the first place because the consumer and medical supply chains diverge at their source--at the factory. All they had to do was instruct the factor to divert total output into the medical chain.
But by outright denying at the first that lay people should wear masks, they first lied--because despite the fact that they hadn't yet done conclusive tests specific to covid-19, they knew that the physics of droplet virus transmission had not changed. Stopping droplets is the same regardless what virus is riding on them.
No, it's not. H1N1 is a descendant of the Spanish Flu. Are you the same person that your grandfather was ?
We do have much of the same DNA. But in a virus, there is no sexual mixing, only mutation. So the relationship is more like modern crocodiles to ancient crocodiles.
But you are trying to divert from the point. The fact is: Spanish flu-->Swine flu-->H1N1. "Herd immunity" merely means that it has a whole new generation to infect every 30 years or so.
...But you are trying to divert from the point. The fact is: Spanish flu-->Swine flu-->H1N1. "Herd immunity" merely means that it has a whole new generation to infect every 30 years or so.
I'm not trying to divert anything. The "it" you're referring to is a different virus.
Quote:
So much for "infectious herd immunity;" as I said, a new generation is born to suffer the epidemic all over again.
Incorrect. Different epidemic, different time, different populace.
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