Imagine DFW in 30 years... (Dallas, Fort Worth: best suburbs, apartments, power lines)

[fistofsouth]

Originally Posted by mezman

Well if climate change is truly happening and the droughts end up being as severe as some predict it might look a whole lot like the Middle East.

A Cut-and-Dry Forecast: U.S. Southwest's Dry Spell May Become Long-Lasting and Intensify as Climate Change Takes Hold: Scientific American

Perhaps I missed something, but that article referred to the American West in general and the areas dependent on Lake Mead and the Colorado River in particular. That means Las Vegas and SoCal, not DFW. The state of Colorado can decide to cut off drinking water to SoCal, Nevada and Arizona whenever they want, but they can do that to Texas. Plus water is so rare in Vegas and SoCal that they either avoid lawn grass as a rule (Vegas) or are forced to paint their yards green because they can't water them (SoCal).

DFW's issues are different when it comes to climate change. Our population growth has required a massive expansion in reservoirs and thus humidity has gone up considerably in the last 30 years. Plus our winters are getting more brutal; I lived in Dallas from 1972 until 1994 and saw exactly 2 snow storms. Since I moved back to North Texas in 2000 I see two snow storms every winter and at least three ice storms, but those make the transplants from up north all giddy, normally result in everyone getting a day or two off and allow everyone to build the occasional snowman so I think that's positive climate change.

[mezman]

Originally Posted by fistofsouth

Perhaps I missed something, but that article referred to the American West in general and the areas dependent on Lake Mead and the Colorado River in particular. That means Las Vegas and SoCal, not DFW. The state of Colorado can decide to cut off drinking water to SoCal, Nevada and Arizona whenever they want, but they can do that to Texas. Plus water is so rare in Vegas and SoCal that they either avoid lawn grass as a rule (Vegas) or are forced to paint their yards green because they can't water them (SoCal).

DFW's issues are different when it comes to climate change. Our population growth has required a massive expansion in reservoirs and thus humidity has gone up considerably in the last 30 years. Plus our winters are getting more brutal; I lived in Dallas from 1972 until 1994 and saw exactly 2 snow storms. Since I moved back to North Texas in 2000 I see two snow storms every winter and at least three ice storms, but those make the transplants from up north all giddy, normally result in everyone getting a day or two off and allow everyone to build the occasional snowman so I think that's positive climate change.

The maps I've seen include most of Texas and go all the way up to Kansas. That article focused on the Colorado though.

[Dark Serge]

Man I love prediction threads.

* Outer suburbs and exurbs will be in massive trouble. Energy and resource crises will lead to American cities needing to become denser, and people to be closer together and not use so much energy. These places will become ghost towns, or perhaps ghettoes for people who ended up being pushed out of the city because of gentrification. Victims of such effects may be:

- Dallas side: Frisco, Rockwall, Sachse, Sunnyvale, Allen, Murphy, Wylie, Rowlett, Fate, Royse City, Forney, Carrollton north of Bush Turnpike. McKinney MAY survive relatively unscathed if it can densify, and connect to Dallas via an express northern run of the Red Line. Plano will survive, but end up becoming a lot denser. Melissa, Celina, Prosper, Anna? Forget about it.

- Fort Worth side: Crowley, Mansfield, Everman, Keller, Watauga, Southlake, Burleson. The NE Tarrant County suburbs closer in, like Euless, Hurst, NRH, etc will still do well, with some densification and transit added.

- Southern Denton County: Flower Mound, Corinth, Little Elm, The Colony, Hebron, Highland Village. Lewisville may could keep standing with some densification.

* In addition, the little boxes made of ticky-tacky in such exurbs will start to decay at about this time, leading to them being an expensive proposition to keep up. This will only accelerate the decline of such places.

* Inner suburbs such as Irving, Richardson, Garland, Richland Hills, Arlington, and the like will survive, but only after making massive changes.

- For one, these places will build up and become a lot denser, also (notice a pattern here?)

- Also, the need to conserve energy will lead to Mesquite, Grand Prairie, Duncanville, Cedar Hill, Grand Prairie, DeSoto, Coppell, and the like finally joining DART.

- On the Fort Worth side, Benbrook, White Settlement, Edgecliff Village, all the northeast Tarrant County cities except Colleyville, Saginaw, Lake Worth, and even Arlington *dun dun dun!* will join The T.

* Speaking of DART and The T, rail projects will be put on the fast track (pun not intended).

- The Red Line will be extended though Duncanville and get a new southern terminus at Cedar Hill.

- The Blue Line will be extended to Lancaster. A branch off the Blue or Red Line will provide service to DeSoto.

- The Green Line will be extended to Balch Springs.

- The Orange Line will have its eastern terminus in Mesquite.

- A western heavy or commuter rail line will extend west from Downtown into Grand Prairie and go all the way to Downtown Fort Worth, basically being a southern parallel to the TRE.

- Crosstown bus rapid transit lines will connect Garland, Richardson, Addison, Farmers Branch, and Carrollton, as well as neighborhoods all around the Metroplex where rapid transit is needed but there is no room or money for light rail.

In other words, a LOT more transit.

* Areas currently considered "ghettoes" and "undesirable" will suddenly become in demand from people trying to move closer in to the city. Pleasant Grove, Fair Park, Oak Cliff, Stop Six, the Southside, the Northside, etc will experience massive densification and gentrification. The influx of former suburbanites will lead to tensions with the current residents. Also, the family of Dark Serge will get offered massive amounts of money for certain inner-city residences we own. What we'll do, no one knows yet.

-----

For people who "TL;DR"ed at this (admittedly) long and rambling post, basically three major points.

1. Decay of exurbs and outlying suburbs
2. The densification and gentrification of inner suburbs and the hub cities
3. Massive expansion of transit

[fistofsouth]

Originally Posted by mezman

The maps I've seen include most of Texas and go all the way up to Kansas. That article focused on the Colorado though.

Interesting. If you have some linkage I would appreciate it. I can see the Trans-Pecos going full desert (The Chihuahuan Desert already covers much of that region) and I can see the Llano Estacado going desert since the Edwards Aquifier that keeps it green is already starting to dry up. Even the Edwards Plateau and sections of the Balcones Fault Zone could become desert, but The Metroplex is a little harder for me to believe. I'm not saying that you have misrepresented anything I just would like to see those maps because I've never seen DFW within desert zones in any of the climate change maps I've seen.

[Rob702]

Originally Posted by milwaukeegirl

It's like that in Europe, you know. Rich folks have moved back into (or have never left) the city centers and the poor live in the suburbs.

It isn't.

[mezman]

Originally Posted by fistofsouth

Interesting. If you have some linkage I would appreciate it. I can see the Trans-Pecos going full desert (The Chihuahuan Desert already covers much of that region) and I can see the Llano Estacado going desert since the Edwards Aquifier that keeps it green is already starting to dry up. Even the Edwards Plateau and sections of the Balcones Fault Zone could become desert, but The Metroplex is a little harder for me to believe. I'm not saying that you have misrepresented anything I just would like to see those maps because I've never seen DFW within desert zones in any of the climate change maps I've seen.

I can't seem to find the exact one I'm thinking of but here's one:

NRDC: Climate Change, Water, and Risk (this one is water sustainability but the drought map I'm thinking of looked much the same)

I guess that little patch of yellow in the middle north of Texas could be DFW but it looks too far south to me. At any rate the overall picture for Texas doesn't look good (assuming it actually happens that is).

[fistofsouth]

Originally Posted by mezman

I can't seem to find the exact one I'm thinking of but here's one:

NRDC: Climate Change, Water, and Risk (this one is water sustainability but the drought map I'm thinking of looked much the same)

I guess that little patch of yellow in the middle north of Texas could be DFW but it looks too far south to me. At any rate the overall picture for Texas doesn't look good (assuming it actually happens that is).

Thanks. You're right it does not look good for Texas and the Metroplex is in the high risk zones in both the climate change and no climate change maps. Of course if DFW adopts more stringent water conservation measures then some of that could be alleviated. Plus Dallas is sitting on top of a massive aquifier that has remained untapped simply because it is easier to dam up creeks and rivers than to collect ground water.

Thanks again for the link.

[qjsmit01]

Originally Posted by justme02

From a demographical perspective, if you want to know what DFW will look like in 10 years time, look at Houston. DFW (especially the Dallas side) follows Houston almost to a T on a demographical level. By the same token Houston seem to be about 15 years behind LA.

I would imagine the continued Hispanic and Asian explosive growth, a modest black growth, and an eventual white decline.

Very interesting perspective

[Twincam666]

Overrun with more Illegals, nobody speaking the English language and taxes much higher than they are now????

No thanks, it's bad enough seeing it now!

[talkispoison]

I don't see Dallas being a place I want to live in 30 years. Especially with all the northern souther development.