Imagine DFW in 30 years... (Dallas, Fort Worth: top neighborhood, employment, school)

[Gamarabi]

Irving has a lot of potential as being sort of a mini-Dallas, in a sense it already is.

Parts of Oak Cliff, particularly the some of homes around Kiest Park and Rugged Drive, I believe will become very very nice areas for people to live in. The northern half of the green line I belive has a lot of potential for clusters of apartment and condo towers, particularly around Dart stations that are NOT at-grade. South Dallas near Fair Park by then will begin to redevelop signifcantly.

Koreatown, if done properly could have a lot of potential.

Arlington and Grand Prairie will finally reach their breaking point after 20 years (Due to limited highway connections) and have public transit. Probably rapid bus lines along Collins, Cooper, and Pioneer Parkway.

Fort Worth, due to my more limited knowledge of it I can't predict.

Plano has potential to continue to be a model American city as it increases density along its rail line.

DART will complete D2 and extending the blue line. Other than that, no new rail lines while service improves.

Addison will provide its own shuttles from Dart Stations. Some outer suburbs may do the same.

Garland's industrial area will be greatly improved as industrial space along the current Green line and West Dallas is reduced.

Comments?

[barrett21]

The way the North texas Metro area continues to not have mandatory recycling, and contributes other abuses to the planet daily which are unecessary, we may not have to worry about Dallas being here in 30 years!

[busterkeaton]

Originally Posted by barrett21

The way the North texas Metro area continues to not have mandatory recycling, and contributes other abuses to the planet daily which are unecessary, we may not have to worry about Dallas being here in 30 years!

Potable water will definitely be a problem for the future DFW. But, as long as it doesn't affect beer quality, I think i'll be okay.

[HOAPRESIDENT]

Originally Posted by barrett21

The way the North texas Metro area continues to not have mandatory recycling, and contributes other abuses to the planet daily which are unecessary, we may not have to worry about Dallas being here in 30 years!

Huh? Dallas has a great recycling program that is free and really easy. They pick up recycling once a week and sort everything for you. It would be crazy not to use it!

[mSooner]

South Dallas will finally see some development.

The Park Cities, Lakewood/MStreets areas will be even more expensive, posh, and relevant than they are now

I don't see Coppell having issues. It is so completely built out with nice homes at this point that it will probably always be a desirable place to live as long as they keep their schools up.

The invented burbs like Frisco, Flower Mound and South Lake will be fine for a while, but I suspect the fact they they are little more than standard bedroom communities with no distinct history of their own will eventually land them in the same class as towns like Mesquite, Garland and Carrollton.

I disagree with this in the case of Flower Mound & Southlake. Frisco, maybe, but Southlake and Flower Mound are so established with nice homes and good schools that it will take a lot to bring them down...at least in 30 years. Neither is going to allow zoning changes easily and all the new construction in Flower Mound is $400k+ homes on acreage and large lots--and it is already surprisingly built out at this point. Land in Flower Mound is approx. $100k/acre right now.

Southlake, Keller, and Flower Mound will probably be considered even better places to live as the metroplex expands upward. Close to the airport and they wont seem so far away when everything moves north.

The only concern I have with Flower Mound is LISD--right now the schools are excellent, but the Lewisville portion of the school district has the potential to make problems for the Flower Mound half. I wouldn't be surprised if they split at some point, but it would be a battle.

Argyle will probably become more prominent as well...right in the path of expansion, good schools, and estate homes. Good combo.

I see the "inner" ring of suburbs--Richardson, Garland, Mesquite, Carrollton, Farmers Branch, and Irving as having potentially the biggest issues.

[Cowboys fan in Houston]

^^^Plano, Southlake, and Coppell will fare very well in the future. The schools are way too good.

[fistofsouth]

[novel]

Originally Posted by mSooner

I don't see Coppell having issues. It is so completely built out with nice homes at this point that it will probably always be a desirable place to live as long as they keep their schools up.

I disagree with this in the case of Flower Mound & Southlake. Frisco, maybe, but Southlake and Flower Mound are so established with nice homes and good schools that it will take a lot to bring them down...at least in 30 years. Neither is going to allow zoning changes easily and all the new construction in Flower Mound is $400k+ homes on acreage and large lots--and it is already surprisingly built out at this point. Land in Flower Mound is approx. $100k/acre right now.

OK first off across Noth Texas $100,00/acre is standard in every developed city; Garland, Denton, Plano all have standard 1/4 acre plots starting at $25K and going up from there. 30 years is a LONG time in a dyanamic area like North Texas. 30 years ago Richardson was on the edge of civilization, people were wondering why developers were putting in a mall way the hell out in Plano and Garland was considered one of the best suburbs in North Texas based on Schools, Golf Courses and the fact that at the time they were the first and only community in North Texas with a "Master Plan". Carrollton/Farmers Branch were both up and coming and Brookhaven Country Club and The Country Place were two of the most sought after suburban neighborhoods in North Texas. In other words people were talking about Garland then the way they talk about Flower Mound today while CFB and Richardson filled the roles that Plano, Frisco and Southlake fill today.

To me it seems as if many of those communities did not learn much from the mistakes of those older suburbs. Flower Mound is chock full of $250,000 tract homes that are not all that different from the $80,000 tract homes of Garland circa 1981. Frisco is loaded down with row after row of $500,000 semi-custom homes that differ little from the $200,000 homes of Brookhaven and Country Place circa 1981. Yes the homes in Frisco and Flower Mound have more square footage than those that sprung up in CFB and Richardson in the late 70s and early 80s, but what does that gain for you? More square footage does not equal class and it does not guarantee that the neighborhood will not go to hell. In fact I would much prefer a 1900SF custom home in Brookhaven (15 miles from downtown Dallas) to a 3500SF custom home in Frisco (30 miles from downtown Dallas, most on a toll road). Currently there are parts of Farmers Branch that are deplorable, but the same will be true of Frisco in 30 years and Stone Briar will be close to closing just like Prestonwood did, but the inner ring suburbs will always have location going for them.

Originally Posted by mSooner

Southlake, Keller, and Flower Mound will probably be considered even better places to live as the metroplex expands upward. Close to the airport and they wont seem so far away when everything moves north.

When is everything going to move north? I mean the northern burbs have been the "place to be" for families for decades now, but they still don't have The Arts District, Fair Park, Victory Park, Deep Ellum, Lower Greenville, The Bishop Arts District, et al. The presence of a minor legue ball park and a soccer team in Frisco does not mean that Collin County has become the center of the universe.

Originally Posted by mSooner

Argyle will probably become more prominent as well...right in the path of expansion, good schools, and estate homes. Good combo.

Argyle and Westlake will be just fine because they have people with money that actively fight to keep their respective communities rural. In fact the only reason Trophy Club exists is because Westlake did not want suburban sprawl (even based around a Country Club) to ruin their rural feel. Note that there are NO bill boards on 114 in Westlake? Notice that buildings do not rise above 5 stories and even those with 5 floors are required to be as unobtrusive as possible. Westlake and Argyle know what they are doing and they have the money to keep doing it, their primary problem relates to land hungry neighbors; Argyle has been losing land to Denton and Flower Mound for years while Trophy Club de-annexed from Westlake as I mentioned above.

Originally Posted by mSooner

I see the "inner" ring of suburbs--Richardson, Garland, Mesquite, Carrollton, Farmers Branch, and Irving as having potentially the biggest issues.

They will have issues in getting urban renewal going, but again all of those towns are within 15 miles of downtown Dallas and that's a feature that Flower Mound, Frisco and Southlake will never have.

I'm not saying those towns will be hell holes by 2031, but the signs that they are going to become Garland will be there by then. At some point people need to realize that moving away from town does not make one immune to urban decay. Only economic power prevents urban decay. By that I mean that the price of ownership is essentially the only thing that prevents a neighborhood from going south. If you live in a neighborhood that has average home prices that are less than $200K (like mine) then there is a possibility that illegals, rednecks and other "undesirables" can take your town over. The Park Cities have never had to pass renters ordinances the same way that Farmers Branch has, but one day Frisco and Southlake may be forced to do so.

[/novel]

[mSooner]

When is everything going to move north? I mean the northern burbs have been the "place to be" for families for decades now, but they still don't have The Arts District, Fair Park, Victory Park, Deep Ellum, Lower Greenville, The Bishop Arts District, et al. The presence of a minor legue ball park and a soccer team in Frisco does not mean that Collin County has become the center of the universe.

Most of the people who live in the northern burbs may have visited these areas once as a novelty when they had OOT visitors. They don't matter at all to those who have chosen to live in the northern burbs. The only draw for most middle-aged families to downtown is when a parent has a job there and the commute becomes an issue.

Downtown will always be relevant, but you cannot deny that development keeps happening further and further north. That's what I really meant by things moving northward.

I still disagree about Flower Mound and Southlake...home values would have to REALLY drop for the "riff raff" to move in and there are little to no apartment options. Zoning would have to change, and as I noted before, it is unlikely these communities will let that happen. Were Mesquite and Garland built without apartments? I doubt it.

[fistofsouth]

Originally Posted by mSooner

Most of the people who live in the northern burbs may have visited these areas once as a novelty when they had OOT visitors. They don't matter at all to those who have chosen to live in the northern burbs. The only draw for most middle-aged families to downtown is when a parent has a job there and the commute becomes an issue.

Downtown will always be relevant, but you cannot deny that development keeps happening further and further north. That's what I really meant by things moving northward.

I still disagree about Flower Mound and Southlake...home values would have to REALLY drop for the "riff raff" to move in and there are little to no apartment options. Zoning would have to change, and as I noted before, it is unlikely these communities will let that happen. Were Mesquite and Garland built without apartments? I doubt it.

OK I can see there are a few things we agree on; development is moving north and apartments are hard to come by in Southlake.

There are apartments in Flower Mound and there are homes for rent in Flower Mound and South Lake, but it isn't renters that I was referring to. I'm talking about illegals, Whiskey Tangos and the rest BUYING homes.

Take my old neighborhood in Garland; traditional 3/4 brick homes between 1500 and 2500SF, no apartments or town homes for miles and in an area of custom and semi-custom homes. It started when a "clan" (for lack of a better term) of illegals moved into one home on the corner. They purchased the house as a "single" family, but at no time were there fewer than 4 families living in that house. Two years later; the black family next door had moved out, the Tejano family on the other side of us moved out and the little old white lady across the street gave up and moved in with one of her kids. Why? Because the neighborhood went from the type where there was a real sense of community (block parties, front-yard BBQs, helping the neighbor with a project for a pat on the back and a few beers, et al) to a neighborhood overrun with people that never spoke English. The Elementary and Middle School in the neighborhood went from "recognized" to having metal detectors. I spent most Saturday and Sunday mornings clearing beer cans, beer bottles and liqour bottles off of my yard. At least twice a week I had to get neighborhood kids to quit harassing our cats. The day I saw the tennis shoes dangling from the power lines I KNEW we we had to move.

My parents went through all of this time and again in Carrollton. It was not always illegal immigrants, sometimes it was the aforementioned WTs or in one instance it was a combination of WTs and SE Asian refugees. It had nothing to do with race and everything to do with economic disparity and the types of behaviors that are acceptable in the 3rd world (be that Cambodia or Vidor, Texas) that are just rude in most cases. It can really take the pride out of home ownership when you go out to pick up the DMN and notice a dog skull in one neighbor's yard and a Confederate Battle Flag flying over another neighbor's house.

You are right in that for today there are some economic barriers that prevent people of that type from establishing themselves in communities like Southlake and Frisco, but those same barriers were present in Garland, Richardson and CFB 30 years ago. If you were looking for a 3 BR rental in many instances a house winds up renting for less than an apartment; in Southlake they can be had for around $1600/month and in Flower Mound they can be had for around $1200. A lack of apartments does not make a town proof against douche bags anymore than gated communities do.

I'm sure there are neighborhoods in Flower Mound, Southlake and Frisco that are so "high dollar" that they are relatively immune to this possibility. Yet I also know that neighborhoods like that exist in CFB, Richardson and Garland. See the whole town does not need to be taken over by "riff-raff" just enough that it develops a reputation. So if a couple of neighborhoods go bad in high visibility areas that's enough to start the ball rolling.

Again Dallas, Fort Worth and other towns have genuine attractions that will keep people coming back, even middle-aged families. I've taken my kids to Dallas World Aquarium several times, The Dallas or Fort Worth Zoos will always merit an annual visit and the State Fair as well. I can't believe that someone with Sooner in their screen name is unfamiliar with the Cotton Bowl no matter what your age. Then there are all the attractions along I-30 between Dallas and Fort Worth; my kids liked The Palace of Wax and Six Flags. I have also heard that middle aged people (men in particular) are fond of professional sporting events and those are also inside the loop.

So yes people do plan trips to the core of Dallas and Fort Worth and Arlington and Grand Prairie and even Grapevine. They come down from Frisco and Flower Mound and Southlake. Funny I never hear of anyone in Dallas planning a weekend in Frisco or Southlake or Flower Mound. People in Fort Worth are far more likely to ride the Tarantula Train into Grapevine's actual, real town center as opposed to driving over to the Southlake "Town Center", brought to you by Walt Disney, patent pending. History, culture, unique dinning experiences, amusement parks and all the rest are just as critical for families as they are for 30K millionaires and Cougars. Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, Grapevine and Denton have these unique features. Southlake, Frisco and Flower Mound have PF Changs, Texas Land & Cattle, Chipotle and gated communities. You can find those (or their ilk) in pretty much every suburb in America and Dallas and Forth Worth have them as well, but there is only one Billy Bobs, there is only one DMA and there is only one State Fair of Texas.

So long as there is nothing to distinguish a suburb then eventually it will go into decline. People will leave those suburbs for newer suburbs with better schools or they will move back inside the loop or into the inner ring suburbs because at least those towns have location working for them.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by barrett21

The way the North texas Metro area continues to not have mandatory recycling, and contributes other abuses to the planet daily which are unecessary, we may not have to worry about Dallas being here in 30 years!

I'll be sure and tell my giant blue recycling receptacle that it does not really exist.