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I'm actively searching and my realtor showed me the MLS data for Park Cities/Preston Hollow areas. Also spoke with numerous longtime Park Cities realtors who confirmed the same. The >$2M market for Park Cities has 3+ years worth of inventory at current pace of sales according to the realtors I've spoken with. I'm not looking in that range and don't follow that level, so can't say for sure what's going on with prices or any reductions. If true, I would call a 3+ year inventory a "bear market", even if prices are not yet coming down.
From personal observation, the Park Cities market is soft with most homes lingering on the market and quite a few price reductions. This started in May or so and activity picked up in September-October and now back down again. Lots of new inventory is appearing as well (though still relatively low at the lower price point I'm searching). The only homes that I've seen sell quickly recently (less than 30 days), have been fully renovated and/or "prime" properties. According to the MLS statistics my realtor provided, the sales price to list price is averaging around 4-5% for houses that do not go under contract quickly, which I would also call soft. Pocket listings in the "entry level" for Park Cities are nearly non-existent now as well, which may indicate further weakness.
Houses are selling, for sure, just not a the pace and percent asking price that we've seen in recent years. It could be seasonality or a temporary lull, or perhaps signs of something greater going on with the market. Time will tell...
It took me a while but I finally got some honest insight into your claims - straight from a realtors desk. Virtually all of your claims about the higher end markets are complete nonsense.
The $2-$3.5MM inventory in HP/UP is roughly 6 months. This includes a number of tear downs that are not ready for move in but are none the less on the market.
The $3.5-$6MM inventory in HP/UP is 9-10 mos.
________
I we live near Inwood and Royal. Around us there are many homes for sale between $1MM and $4MM. According to the same realtor the inventory in that range around here is about 5 months.
I have "acquired" the money, what I have not "acquired" is the lunacy to pay 100K+ more for something that does not have that kind of value. Will let others "enjoy" from a 450K home which they were able to acquire for the lightning deal of 600K ;-)
A product is worth what someone will pay for it, not the amount you hope you can get it for.
It took me a while but I finally got some honest insight into your claims - straight from a realtors desk. Virtually all of your claims about the higher end markets are complete nonsense.
The $2-$3.5MM inventory in HP/UP is roughly 6 months. This includes a number of tear downs that are not ready for move in but are none the less on the market.
The $3.5-$6MM inventory in HP/UP is 9-10 mos.
________
I we live near Inwood and Royal. Around us there are many homes for sale between $1MM and $4MM. According to the same realtor the inventory in that range around here is about 5 months.
We'll, the data I saw is "straight from a realtor's desk", also, so moot point there. Also, the data I saw was not broken up by price, it's merely >$2M.
I just performed a quick search on Ebby and there are currently 51 active properties in UP >$2M and 66 active properties in HP >$2M, for a total of 117 active properties. I don't have the data in front of me, but I am fairly certain there are not more than 117 sales of >$2M properties occurring on an annualized basis in the Park Cities, in which case inventory would be >1 year. A 9 month inventory would need 13 of these properties to sell every month and a 6 month inventory would need 20 of these properties to sell a month. The latter is certainly not happening.
Also, average sales to list price in Park Cities is 95-96% currently, a far cry from bidding wars of past.
Not sure why you're taking such offense. Don't shoot the messenger. The high-end market is soft right now, it doesn't take a professional to figure that out if you're actively looking at the market.
I just performed a quick search on Ebby and there are currently 51 active properties in UP >$2M and 66 active properties in HP >$2M, for a total of 117 active properties. I don't have the data in front of me, but I am fairly certain there are not more than 117 sales of >$2M properties occurring on an annualized basis in the Park Cities, in which case inventory would be >1 year. A 9 month inventory would need 13 of these properties to sell every month and a 6 month inventory would need 20 of these properties to sell a month. The latter is certainly not happening.
EDS gave you actual inventory figures from a realtor.
You are simply guessing at the number of sales there are. Big difference.
We'll, the data I saw is "straight from a realtor's desk", also, so moot point there. Also, the data I saw was not broken up by price, it's merely >$2M.
I just performed a quick search on Ebby and there are currently 51 active properties in UP >$2M and 66 active properties in HP >$2M, for a total of 117 active properties. I don't have the data in front of me, but I am fairly certain there are not more than 117 sales of >$2M properties occurring on an annualized basis in the Park Cities, in which case inventory would be >1 year. A 9 month inventory would need 13 of these properties to sell every month and a 6 month inventory would need 20 of these properties to sell a month. The latter is certainly not happening.
Also, average sales to list price in Park Cities is 95-96% currently, a far cry from bidding wars of past.
Not sure why you're taking such offense. Don't shoot the messenger. The high-end market is soft right now, it doesn't take a professional to figure that out if you're actively looking at the market.
"Actual" data would tell you that for YTD September (latest I have handy), there have been 520 sales in the Park Cities at a median price of $1.2M. As of September, there was a 6 month supply of listings (which is considered "healthy", neither buyers nor seller's market) and 96% sold-to-list price.
If the median price is $1.2M, then 260 sales YTD September were for over $1.2M. I think one can easily say that for certain, there are more than 117 sales a year over $2.0M. Just sayin' your hypothesis seems to be incorrect....
Funny, those attacking my statements are doing so without providing the numbers to back it up.
This is the last I'll post on the subject. I unfortunately am not a realtor and no longer have the data, nor am I in the market for a $2M+ home. I based my statements upon the data that I saw and conversations with several long-time Park Cities realtors who confirmed the same. Believe it or don't.
Current inventory is more complicated than just 117 sales above $2M in a given year. Inventory = number of homes for sale in a given month/number of homes actually sold. It's a fluid number that changes monthly (or even daily). I said "annualized" sales, which is another word for current sales per month X 12 months. An annualized rate of 117 home sales would be approximately 10 sales per month, and that would be for a 1 year inventory, not the 6-9 month inventory as EDS has suggested. A 6-9 month inventory with 117 active listings would be 13 to 20 sales in a given month.
We're in the winter market and this time of year there are fewer sales per month and fewer available homes. The annualized sales numbers would be higher in the Spring market when much more homes hit the market, but the number of active listings also increases. The same basic inventory calculation remains the same, however.
If anyone has some actual data to post (i.e. number of sales per month vs. active listings), please feel free to disprove my statements. Otherwise, it's just conjecture.
Good luck to all the $2M+ home buyers out there following this.
Funny, those attacking my statements are doing so without providing the numbers to back it up.
This is the last I'll post on the subject. I unfortunately am not a realtor and no longer have the data, nor am I in the market for a $2M+ home. I based my statements upon the data that I saw and conversations with several long-time Park Cities realtors who confirmed the same. Believe it or don't.
Current inventory is more complicated than just 117 sales above $2M in a given year. Inventory = number of homes for sale in a given month/number of homes actually sold. It's a fluid number that changes monthly (or even daily). I said "annualized" sales, which is another word for current sales per month X 12 months. An annualized rate of 117 home sales would be approximately 10 sales per month, and that would be for a 1 year inventory, not the 6-9 month inventory as EDS has suggested. A 6-9 month inventory with 117 active listings would be 13 to 20 sales in a given month.
We're in the winter market and this time of year there are fewer sales per month and fewer available homes. The annualized sales numbers would be higher in the Spring market when much more homes hit the market, but the number of active listings also increases. The same basic inventory calculation remains the same, however.
If anyone has some actual data to post (i.e. number of sales per month vs. active listings), please feel free to disprove my statements. Otherwise, it's just conjecture.
Good luck to all the $2M+ home buyers out there following this.
Wrong. We're attacking YOUR data... because you didn't provide any backing up your statements. Hence why I bolded your statement above, "I am fairly certain."
That is a GUESS. Not a fact, and it's not supported by anything you've shown, and it's directly refuted by other posters.
A product is worth what someone will pay for it, not the amount you hope you can get it for.
Unfortunately, your equation is correct!
I will continue waiting and when somebody from California buys one of these 450K homes priced at 600K I will just feel sorry for them. But hey, to them it will be a miracle to buy a 3300 SQFT for a paltry 600K when in CA that is a multi million dollar mansion, easy!
And that is the actual problem to us Texans. We do not come from CA. We are not accustomed to plain 3300 SQFT with 1 acre and an old beaten pool to be 600K homes. Two years ago, this was a 400K home. And now, all of a sudden, and because they know any day now a Californian will show up and say "WHAT A DEAL!!!!", they price their home as such.
It is not that the home truly merits to be priced at 600K. But because somebody in this entire planet will be willing to pay that amount, the house will sell for that.
After all, it is not like we are selling cookies and we need to sell millions of them, in which case we need millions of suckers to fall for our marketing. We only need one sucker to buy the property. That's it!
Hence, we are hosed. Or I am hosed... Because there is no way I can bring myself to pay top dollar for any of these homes.
That's what you get in a market driven economy. And given current trends, you will probably be waiting for a while.
Quote:
Originally Posted by avayan
Unfortunately, your equation is correct!
I will continue waiting and when somebody from California buys one of these 450K homes priced at 600K I will just feel sorry for them. But hey, to them it will be a miracle to buy a 3300 SQFT for a paltry 600K when in CA that is a multi million dollar mansion, easy!
And that is the actual problem to us Texans. We do not come from CA. We are not accustomed to plain 3300 SQFT with 1 acre and an old beaten pool to be 600K homes. Two years ago, this was a 400K home. And now, all of a sudden, and because they know any day now a Californian will show up and say "WHAT A DEAL!!!!", they price their home as such.
It is not that the home truly merits to be priced at 600K. But because somebody in this entire planet will be willing to pay that amount, the house will sell for that.
After all, it is not like we are selling cookies and we need to sell millions of them, in which case we need millions of suckers to fall for our marketing. We only need one sucker to buy the property. That's it!
Hence, we are hosed. Or I am hosed... Because there is no way I can bring myself to pay top dollar for any of these homes.
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