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Old 02-08-2021, 06:21 PM
 
8,302 posts, read 5,726,574 times
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Yeah, this thread certainly didn't age well...
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Old 02-09-2021, 01:15 PM
 
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LOL... I think this thread is the reason most of the people on my ignore list ended up there haha.
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Old 02-09-2021, 10:47 PM
 
578 posts, read 480,576 times
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In hindsight, RE market is indeed softening in Nasdaq dollars. If you have heavily invested in tech stocks since 2016/2017, your portfolio should have been more than doubled, beating any growth in home price. With record low mortgage rates, now is an once-in-a-lifetime chance for first-time buyers.

Again, that assuming you are aggressively investing. If you don't save enough, or just park your money in some low-interest account, passively waiting for a "RE market crash", you are f***ed. You have significantly less buying power than four years ago and everyday your are being further priced out of the market. You might as well restart your search in Waco, TX.
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Old 06-27-2021, 04:44 PM
 
278 posts, read 217,991 times
Reputation: 331
Post I think we're reaching current top of real estate prices.

I think that right now we're peaking in terms of real estate pricing. I obviously do not claim to even remotely know for sure - its just an opinion.

The existing home sale data is declining - while I anticipated another bump during the summer (it might still happen).

The lumber prices are down over 50% from peak. From $1715 to $774 as of today.

I also think that people who could and had to buy have already done so. We're left with people who are on sidelines that are refusing or are unable to pay current prices.

I don't think there is going to be a crash by any means but this feels like a top for me personally. There will a correction to account for new builds that are coming.

Consumer intention for home buying actually plummeted in past month, some are saying that we went from being 'home buying' crazy to 'holiday crazy' the priorities are shifting.



https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXHOSLUSM495S

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XrmVx0HZ/


Again - I am sure many here will say that the house next door just closed for 80% above asking price or something. I get it, I might be totally wrong. Its just my opinion. And again, I do not think there will be a massive crash.

For DFW specifically, I'm starting to see houses that are out of conventional loan limits aka above 600k ranges come back on market due to fall through in financing. Others are sticking on market a lot longer, and even some price decreases in those ranges. The lower ranges are still very competitive, but I think the 650-900k range is first to go.

Last edited by Kenro911; 06-27-2021 at 05:07 PM..
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Old 06-27-2021, 11:39 PM
 
1,456 posts, read 1,497,748 times
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Might be the peak, but not the summit.
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Old 06-28-2021, 12:59 AM
 
Location: Tricity, PL
61,889 posts, read 87,406,262 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeamLynn View Post
Might be the peak, but not the summit.
I agree. Demand dictates the prices. When demand exceeds supply, prices tend to rise. Right now we are experiencing imbalance between supply and demand - the U.S. has a housing shortage.
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Old 06-28-2021, 06:47 AM
 
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Is it possible the market is "softening" ? :-)
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Old 06-28-2021, 06:58 AM
 
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Every year, a few people mention the "softening", as we get closer to Independence day. The prices are still going up. Prices always spike in the spring. Homes see smaller prices increases from Memorial day to the start of school. After Labor Day, the prices stall or dip slightly until next spring.

Here's a thread from July 7th 2018 with 215 pages of great posts on the seasonal effect.
Softening in RE market?? (Dallas, Denton: real estate market, to rent, credit) - https://www.city-data.com/forum/dall...re-market.html

Last edited by move4ward; 06-28-2021 at 07:28 AM..
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Old 06-28-2021, 10:41 AM
 
Location: Mckinney
1,103 posts, read 1,664,745 times
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The reason for the slowing of sales is that there are not enough homes on the pre existing market. Also, builders are capping sales, so once again not enough homes to buy. Im ready for the market to get back to more of a normal pace, but think it will be first or second quarter of next year.
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Old 06-28-2021, 01:42 PM
 
1,387 posts, read 1,096,766 times
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I don't know. Zillow has shown two consecutive drops on my home in Stonebridge Ranch over the last couple of weeks, although adjacent homes with the same floor plan and less desirable lots went up at the same time, so I'm not sure how reliable that is or what could be going into that model.

It's hard to even set a price range when you have no idea what your own home will sell for.

I am ready for the price gap between new and existing homes to narrow. It makes no sense, and something is off about it.
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