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CNBC didn’t reword the quote in question. What you posted is verbatim the text I quoted, which is still in the article. I misread the quote.
Core inflation has in fact been relatively flat for much of 2023, and just recently showed a slight decline in May. A one month decline isn’t sufficient evidence to suggest that core inflation is falling.
Relative to historical norms, core inflation remains disturbingly high and sticky. And given the strong labor market, it is unfathomable that you believe pausing is the right move. What’s not surprising is that you think Fed credibility is good. You are a Fed apologist, after all.
I’m not rooting “against the economy”. I’m rooting for a balanced economy and a balanced housing market.
You just argued that core was rising. That's a far cry from "A one month decline isn’t sufficient evidence to suggest that core inflation is falling." We were at 6.6% in late 2022. We're at 5.3% now. CPI has gone from 9.1% to 4%. PPI has gone from 11.7% to 2.3%. Your argument that inflation isn't coming down swiftly is just wrong.
No one thought we could be where we are now with this big of a drop in inflation without also having a recession well under way. I have my doubts that the hikes that are already in the pipeline won't cause a recession, but thus far, the Fed has outperformed even their most ardent critics. No one thought this was possible.
What do you think, the Fed should keep hiking right up until we're at 2%? Do you not understand that lag effect of rate hikes?
And you are rooting against the economy. You want housing to come down, and the only foreseeable way that happens is if we have a significant recession or rates go much higher. You aren't content with housing staying where it is, and if the Fed gives us a soft landing, housing probably isn't crashing. So of course you're rooting against a soft landing.
You just argued that core was rising. That's a far cry from "A one month decline isn’t sufficient evidence to suggest that core inflation is falling." We were at 6.6% in late 2022. We're at 5.3% now. CPI has gone from 9.1% to 4%. PPI has gone from 11.7% to 2.3%. Your argument that inflation isn't coming down swiftly is just wrong.
No one thought we could be where we are now with this big of a drop in inflation without also having a recession well under way. I have my doubts that the hikes that are already in the pipeline won't cause a recession, but thus far, the Fed has outperformed even their most ardent critics. No one thought this was possible.
What do you think, the Fed should keep hiking right up until we're at 2%? Do you not understand that lag effect of rate hikes?
And you are rooting against the economy. You want housing to come down, and the only foreseeable way that happens is if we have a significant recession or rates go much higher. You aren't content with housing staying where it is, and if the Fed gives us a soft landing, housing probably isn't crashing. So of course you're rooting against a soft landing.
Actually, it's not balanced. Prices have not stabilized to the extent they were pretty much for decades prior to the pandemic. While the price points now are here to stay, they are going up too fast due to historically unprecedented supply and demand imbalance. Until the levels of supply and demand and rates of price increase compare to pre-pandemic, then you don't have a balanced market in my view. Right now, prices need to stay the same for a good many years. That's not happening. That's the problem.
It's the pandemic and post-pandemic economic changes that we want to reverse.
Actually, it's not balanced. Prices have not stabilized to the extent they were pretty much for decades prior to the pandemic. While the price points now are here to stay, they are going up too fast due to historically unprecedented supply and demand imbalance. Until the levels of supply and demand and rates of price increase compare to pre-pandemic, then you don't have a balanced market in my view. Right now, prices need to stay the same for a good many years. That's not happening. That's the problem.
It's the pandemic and post-pandemic economic changes that we want to reverse.
In other words, you want deflation. The Fed is not targeting deflation, so I wouldn't expect to see it. But I'm not sure we will see crazy housing value increases this year. It's hard to predict since we're just halfway through the year, but 2023 ending up at 5% doesn't seem out of the question to me.
And keep in mind that housing is just part of the inflation math. It's an absolute certainty that the shelter component of CPI will drop in the coming months. There's significant lag built in.
In other words, you want deflation. The Fed is not targeting deflation, so I wouldn't expect to see it. But I'm not sure we will see crazy housing value increases this year. It's hard to predict since we're just halfway through the year, but 2023 ending up at 5% doesn't seem out of the question to me.
And keep in mind that housing is just part of the inflation math. It's an absolute certainty that the shelter component of CPI will drop in the coming months. There's significant lag built in.
I know you know this but it's pretty clear others don't. SFHs are not directly accounted for in CPI. Point being it's utterly possible for home prices to stay flat or increase while shelter and related components of CPI decrease, .
I have to laugh when people say inflation is under control. Sure it may be under control from a month or two months ago and hell even if it were in control from a year ago the fact remains from 2-3 years ago it isn't close. It is disingenuous to say inflation at 2% from year ago is under control when it was up 10% from the prior year a year before and 10% before that. While I did not check my numbers buying a lb of beef in 2020 for $5 and now it is $8. People want to say see inflation is under control because a year ago it was $7.50. When it falls back to $5.25 or even $5.50 then let us know. This administration is a dumpster fire. Who knew injecting tons of money would cause inflation? Well almost everyone.
I have to laugh when people say inflation is under control. Sure it may be under control from a month or two months ago and hell even if it were in control from a year ago the fact remains from 2-3 years ago it isn't close. It is disingenuous to say inflation at 2% from year ago is under control when it was up 10% from the prior year a year before and 10% before that. While I did not check my numbers buying a lb of beef in 2020 for $5 and now it is $8. People want to say see inflation is under control because a year ago it was $7.50. When it falls back to $5.25 or even $5.50 then let us know. This administration is a dumpster fire. Who knew injecting tons of money would cause inflation? Well almost everyone.
I have to laugh when people blame the President for inflation, shows a complete lack of economic understanding. I suppose he's responsible for inflation the world over too, right?
Frankly, that's one of the main things our current President did right, was to stay out of the way of the Fed and other Central Banks and let his economic advisors guide policy in the wake of Covid shutdowns. We went from a 2.3% GDP annual GDP increase in 2019 to a negative 2.8 for 2020. Miraculously, we managed to get through it without a significant recession, and economic stimulus was the reason. Most economists agree that it would have been far worse had we done nothing but let things take their course.
I have to laugh when people say inflation is under control. Sure it may be under control from a month or two months ago and hell even if it were in control from a year ago the fact remains from 2-3 years ago it isn't close. It is disingenuous to say inflation at 2% from year ago is under control when it was up 10% from the prior year a year before and 10% before that. While I did not check my numbers buying a lb of beef in 2020 for $5 and now it is $8. People want to say see inflation is under control because a year ago it was $7.50. When it falls back to $5.25 or even $5.50 then let us know. This administration is a dumpster fire. Who knew injecting tons of money would cause inflation? Well almost everyone.
I can't take anyone seriously who thinks the conversation about our current inflation is a conversation about a President, past or current.
I have to laugh when people blame the President for inflation, shows a complete lack of economic understanding. I suppose he's responsible for inflation the world over too, right?
Frankly, that's one of the main things our current President did right, was to stay out of the way of the Fed and other Central Banks and let his economic advisors guide policy in the wake of Covid shutdowns. We went from a 2.3% GDP annual GDP increase in 2019 to a negative 2.8 for 2020. Miraculously, we managed to get through it without a significant recession, and economic stimulus was the reason. Most economists agree that it would have been far worse had we done nothing but let things take their course.
who injected all the money into the system? Worse than this? No chance. A recession would have kept prices down. Inflation is now affecting 100% of people. Maybe not catastrophic for 100% but it is affecting it. A recession would have affected less than 100% of people and kept prices down. Prices are never going back to the 2020 levels.
I can't take anyone seriously who thinks the conversation about our current inflation is a conversation about a President, past or current.
You are allowed to be wrong. This was very simple to see. If a Republican did it the same thing would have happened. Had Trump been reelected he probably would have done the same and if he did then it would have been his administrations fault. BTW you seem to have forgotten when this administration said not to worry about inflation as it was transitory. How's that working out? For me this administration (Dem) made me more than the last one would have by far thank god to many regulations that passed and leadership put in place. I end up in a lesser place if we had Repubs in office.
The fact you can't figure out why inflation occurred is a you problem. This one was simple to see and multiple people called it as it was happening.
While no doubt Covid caused the supply issues people having access to more money than normal gave them the ability to pay more without even thinking about it. In other words very few people went without.
You are allowed to be wrong. This was very simple to see. If a Republican did it the same thing would have happened. Had Trump been reelected he probably would have done the same and if he did then it would have been his administrations fault. BTW you seem to have forgotten when this administration said not to worry about inflation as it was transitory. How's that working out? For me this administration (Dem) made me more than the last one would have by far thank god to many regulations that passed and leadership put in place. I end up in a lesser place if we had Repubs in office.
The fact you can't figure out why inflation occurred is a you problem. This one was simple to see and multiple people called it as it was happening.
While no doubt Covid caused the supply issues people having access to more money than normal gave them the ability to pay more without even thinking about it. In other words very few people went without.
We were all wondering whether you actually knew what you were talking about. Thanks for answering the question for us.
Our current inflation is largely a combination of three things, although they don't contribute equal weight:
1. Too much Covid stimulus
2. Covid-related supply chain issues
3. Low rates/QE
The only one of the three that is even a little bit political was number one, but most of that legislation was bipartisan (and mostly occured during the prior administration, btw).
The other two aren't political issues in the least.
The moral of the story here is probably that you can't shut down the entire economy and not end up with a recession or inflation or both. Thus far we only had the initial, very short, recession during Covid. We provided enough stimulus to avoid a bigger contraction, so we got inflation.
This is unrelated to who's in office.
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