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So, you no longer believe in the free market economy in America. When are you getting out of the market?
No need. I'm only putting a % in.
Just like I've only got a % in gold and silver.
That whole 'many Buckets' thing...
There's still time, but it's only a matter of time.
Just makes it harder... like those people I recall reading about who shorted various companies just to have the Government punish the diligent and reward the careless. (Bale out the companies they shorted)
Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281
If, I invest in a company that has value and produces profit, it will reward me as an investor by returning those profits to me. The US is not the only market out there, global multinationals like XOM, GE, JNJ etc will benefit from global growth and demand. Health care, toilet paper, transportation and energy will not be going out of favor any time soon.
Selling off investments and assets will not diminish demand for products, rather fuel it with the proceeds. Do you imagine the baby boomers sitting home eating beanies and weenies? Not the ones, I know. They are spending those assets and passing them to their children to spend.
My point:
The 'Investment bubble' will pop just like the Internet bubble, Housing bubble, And the Student loan bubble will....
Tis the way of things.
There's money to be made in the mean time, but long term... won't be good.
ETA: I see I should explain farther: Many prices (Of stocks) are inflated PAST what they are worth... those GOOD companies who make TP etc... It doesn't matter that they cans till make TP when the market falters. We see this Day to day... when a company is 'expected' to make 10% and "only " make 9.... they did well, but because it's not what was expected... the market reacts badly.
WHEN prices begin to fall, and there are more sellers then buyers... it will HURT.
Too much too fast... and it will be very bad.
Time will tell.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas User
They pull out because of fear and emotions and/or needing money for something else.
Moving to Bonds = fear and emotions.
Ummm, Noooooo.
It's realizing that with a lesser span of years left, you cannot 'ride the wave' back up as easily.
Less time left= more conservative. (Do you REALLY not get that?)
Gen-Y folks though in this economy have been taking a beating. I know far too many educated folks that don't have jobs. The unemployment rate for Gen-Y is something like 25%. That's absurd. That's Spain levels of unemployment. Why? Businesses aren't hiring. Plain and simple.
Some of us though got educated and worked hard at it. I didn't have to work hard to get where I'm at today (bachelors, will get my master's soon, work at a major company that is cutting edge and leads the nation in exports) but there is one thing that I will say ....
Folks in my generation are a lot like the current batch of young Japanese workers. They refuse to take the 3 K's of working - kitsui (hard), kitanai (dirty), kikken (dangerous). In the 1980s, it was OK, because Japan's economy was booming and cheap foreign labor could be brought in to take on those jobs. Now, old folks are coming back to work in those jobs for a variety of reasons (pension got cut, boredom, etc). Now that Japan's economy is sucking wind, it doesn't have enough 3K's workers but the government doesn't want to relax immigration policies for fear of appearing soft.
Sound familiar?
Folks in my generation better get used to the idea that they'll have to work harder and longer because people are living longer and working longer and people, in general, are getting more educated. Life's a b(tch. Deal with it. I worked in a Starbucks in the 90s (harder than today, we had to make a lot by scratch), got burns on my hands, dealt with uppity rich types that demanded change for a $100 at opening after getting a small coffee and then had the gall to lecture you on how to make a latte (when they obviously ordered a mocha), I worked as an office assistant when I was a teen, worked all sorts of odd jobs around the world before being what I am now (engineering).
A lot of these folks aren't studying either. I was reading a prominent liberal economist in the FT today as a guest. Now both liberals and conservatives agree that a more educated workforce is needed to compete globally. It's too bad the Deep South forces its political parties to be lap dogs for idiotic fringe religious cults, and force to teach ID in schools and cut education funding at the drop of a hat. Pathetic. It's not the unions, idiots, Germany kicks our ass in educated workforce and their whole damn workforce is unionized, and their economy is basically propping up all of Europe now.
Education is key. That's more than a buzzword. Don't go to school in liberal arts and expect a 6 figure salary out of college. Do go to school, work hard, get good grades in a scientifically or technically demanding job, and maybe you'll get a good job. Don't get wasted thursday thru monday every week. I remember you types. I was walking home at 1 AM after busting my ass studying. Bunch of idiots were drinking and hooting and hollering, saying "hey where's the party?!" Now get back in the kitchen and make my lunch! Don't like it? Tough. Get your nose in the books and out of the booze and maybe you'll make something of yourself. They need morticians I heard (actually quite a nice paying job and technically and scientifically demanding along with artistic representation needed, an interesting cross section ... but man is it emotionally draining I hear). They also need RN's and lab techs. They also need folks who know CNC machining (cool stuff btw).
Sorry. Free lunch is over. USA isn't the only country with a functioning economy anymore like it was back after WWII. Boomers had it easy. We gotta pick it back up and step up or shut up.
There's still time, but it's only a matter of time.
Just like everyone else.
So, you are timing the market.
To be honest, what strikes me about your posts is you are saying/doing the same thing as many others and yet portraying that you have a unique perspective.
Over the last 30 years we have only had 2 bubbles, dotcom and real estate, both were as obvious as a freight train. And just as easy to sidestep.
Things are a little different when your percentages have accumulated and a black swan event wipes out 40% of your portfolio. That is when the rubber meets the road. Having the insight and fortitude to either bail with your losses or double down into a buying opportunity. And the wisdom to know the difference. You see, some of us have lived it and have a successful record to support their views. I've seen many folks make the exact wrong choice at the exact wrong time on many occasions. Flinching, overreacting or staring like a deer in the headlights is the norm.
It's too bad the Deep South forces its political parties to be lap dogs for idiotic fringe religious cults, and force to teach ID in schools and cut education funding at the drop of a hat. Pathetic. It's not the unions, idiots, Germany kicks our ass in educated workforce and their whole damn workforce is unionized, and their economy is basically propping up all of Europe now.
Is it really too bad or are they simply ensuring that their own constituencies are the ones who will be making the lattes? Less competition for the desirable careers and opportunities. Someone has to work retail.
Folks at your university waited until Thursday to get wasted? Must have been ivy league!
To be honest, what strikes me about your posts is you are saying/doing the same thing as many others and yet portraying that you have a unique perspective.
Over the last 30 years we have only had 2 bubbles, dotcom and real estate, both were as obvious as a freight train. And just as easy to sidestep.
Things are a little different when your percentages have accumulated and a black swan event wipes out 40% of your portfolio. That is when the rubber meets the road. Having the insight and fortitude to either bail with your losses or double down into a buying opportunity. And the wisdom to know the difference. You see, some of us have lived it and have a successful record to support their views. I've seen many folks make the exact wrong choice at the exact wrong time on many occasions. Flinching, overreacting or staring like a deer in the headlights is the norm.
Best of luck.
Yes/No.
First of all I started off by saying that I was in the market, and that it would be interesting for US to see what would happen WHEN.... (Money started flowing out)
IS that timing the market? Sure.
Did I say that I was doing different than investing in large cap and small cap and THINKING I was diversified? Yes.
Was what I saying that "At a point in the perceivable future" it is all going to come falling down? Yes.
Am I going to be one of those guys who was sure the Soviets were going to bomb us in the 60's and pull out my retirement to build a bomb shelter? No
I'm just saying that "The end is coming" NOT walking around with a sign saying "The end is near"
I'm on track for my personal goals, Debt free, worth over $300K, (Only a fraction of which is in the market) and should have my paid for house and a Masters degree by 30.
I'd say that's a unique perspective.
USA is in the best economical situation then any country on the planet by far.
I like China, personally, with its abundant natural resources -- people. I also like Canada, with abundant natural resources (literally) and much fewer people to claw at them.
First of all I started off by saying that I was in the market, and that it would be interesting for US to see what would happen WHEN.... (Money started flowing out)
IS that timing the market? Sure.
Did I say that I was doing different than investing in large cap and small cap and THINKING I was diversified? Yes.
Was what I saying that "At a point in the perceivable future" it is all going to come falling down? Yes.
Am I going to be one of those guys who was sure the Soviets were going to bomb us in the 60's and pull out my retirement to build a bomb shelter? No
I'm just saying that "The end is coming" NOT walking around with a sign saying "The end is near"
I'm on track for my personal goals, Debt free, worth over $300K, (Only a fraction of which is in the market) and should have my paid for house and a Masters degree by 30.
I'd say that's a unique perspective.
You can't time a market and expect to win in the long run. The ONLY way to beat the market (or the S&P) in the long run is to cheat (insider info.). If you don't have that, you are speculating, period. Do you think you are the only investor who has thought that the baby boomers will be exiting the market in droves?
You can't time a market and expect to win in the long run. The ONLY way to beat the market (or the S&P) in the long run is to cheat (insider info.). If you don't have that, you are speculating, period. Do you think you are the only investor who has thought that the baby boomers will be exiting the market in droves?
You just have to have a plan for long-term and you are ok.
You can't time a market and expect to win in the long run. The ONLY way to beat the market (or the S&P) in the long run is to cheat (insider info.).
Tell that to the people who got out the market in 1929, Or.....
(They got out... and then had ALL THAT CAPITAL preserved.) Fortunes were made buying land etc.
The only difference now is population/demographics.
(And debt details, but lets ignore that for the moment)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Min-Chi-Cbus
If you don't have that, you are speculating, period. Do you think you are the only investor who has thought that the baby boomers will be exiting the market in droves?
Not at all.
But your missing the point. I only noted that I 'Was in' so it would be clear I wasn't one of those people who cried 'the sky is falling' and had all my money in Gold or something.
It's even irrelevant that (According to the 'good statistics') I'm investing enough to have a couple million bux at 59.5
And it's irrelevant that if it goes to zero... it won't break me ether...
THE POINT (Which you are ignoring) Is that it's simply a matter of time until (in a system which is dependent on more and more money coming in)
There are fewer and fewer $'s coming in... Along with MASSIVE amounts of money going OUT!
You just have to have a plan for long-term and you are ok.
If you are properly diversified... We agree.
Mid Cap, Growth Stocks, Aggressive growth etc...
IS NOT diversity however, no matter how much people are lied to and told it is.
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