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SF for sure. Fusion plants in your back yard? It won't happen. See the EPA about that.
The EPA has a lot to say about certain types of fusion. Other types however have little or no byproducts that are dangerous. As such the EPA would have a whole lot of nothing to say.
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I don't know how much you know about 3D printing but I haven't seen anything yet to make me go "wow". Low strength plastics mostly. If the tech is mature, why aren't the products we buy made this way?
The laser sintering patent has recently expired. As such we can hope to start seeing laser sintering based 3D printers for less then a million. To give you a wow: SpaceX Taking 3D Printing to the Final Frontier
Its also being used to print some new engines for planes. Basically 3D printing with metal. A far cry from just brittle plastic as you say.
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The sophisticated stuff we use is comprised of hundreds or thousands of materials using complex processes and assembly. Does that lend itself to 3D printing? Can you make a 3D printer with a 3D printer?
Fusion is SF. "Well, the scientific community’s reaction to the Lockheed announcement was … muted at best. Lockheed’s supposed ‘breakthrough‘ was the creation of a magnetic bottle’ that would contain the heat and pressure of the fusion reaction; however, this is the same technology that has been around for 50-plus years, and Lockheed did not explain how its tokamak was different and able to achieve a net energy gain. In fact, it offered no data at all, and the little information it did release suggested that it might not even have the basic science right."
The SpaceX article is about making a few parts with a printer instead of machining them. That's cool, but it's a far cry from having a printer spit out a complex and intricate device made of thousands of materials.
And the RepRap can print about 50% of it's own parts. You still have to buy the other 50% and put it together.
But even if this SF you envision becomes real, why do you think the useless masses would be allowed to suck up all the world's resources to make toys for themselves? I mean, we are taking for granted that productivity will go exponential and that the real costs will plummet. We *could* all live lives of ease and modest luxury. The problem is that we will also cease to be necessary. Instead being in a symbiotic relationship with the rich and powerful, we will be like vermin.
Fusion is SF. "Well, the scientific community’s reaction to the Lockheed announcement was … muted at best. Lockheed’s supposed ‘breakthrough‘ was the creation of a magnetic bottle’ that would contain the heat and pressure of the fusion reaction; however, this is the same technology that has been around for 50-plus years, and Lockheed did not explain how its tokamak was different and able to achieve a net energy gain. In fact, it offered no data at all, and the little information it did release suggested that it might not even have the basic science right."
Lockheed Martin has a history of delivering.
But they are far from the only company that says they are going to deliver. Polywell fusion, Focus fusion, and tri-alpha (best financed, and secretive, they've gotten 140 million from the likes of Goldman Sachs, and Paul Allen. And many more. These folks are not in this for "science fiction". They are there to make money.
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The SpaceX article is about making a few parts with a printer instead of machining them. That's cool, but it's a far cry from having a printer spit out a complex and intricate device made of thousands of materials.
Out of incredibly strong metal, not plastic which you indicated. Thats my point. I'm not saying TODAY, but within 1-2 decades the materials will be there. How much of your car could be produced out of metal? 95%? Thats today. Very expensive to 3D print, but its there. 15-20 years from now? its going to be cheap, and we are going to see tons of materials, and capabilities.
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And the RepRap can print about 50% of it's own parts. You still have to buy the other 50% and put it together.
Today. I think thats my point you know, that the technology is rapidly evolving. Change the reprap to something that prints metal, and whats the %? 80? 90?
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But even if this SF you envision becomes real, why do you think the useless masses would be allowed to suck up all the world's resources to make toys for themselves? I mean, we are taking for granted that productivity will go exponential and that the real costs will plummet. We *could* all live lives of ease and modest luxury. The problem is that we will also cease to be necessary. Instead being in a symbiotic relationship with the rich and powerful, we will be like vermin.
Ah yes, the whole "we will be vermin" argument. Thats a argument for the politics tab. The economics of it is that after you've met all your basic needs income isn't nearly as vital. In fact you could just as easily argue that the unproductive rich is the vermin. Capital will not be nearly as powerful. One of the things I mention was recycling. How much do you own? in lbs. 20,000 lbs? 100,000? If you look back...how much have you owned? How much material can you actually USE at any one point?
In fact you could just as easily argue that the unproductive rich is the vermin. Capital will not be nearly as powerful.
This has always been the case, throughout civilized history. It isn't capital that is powerful, it is influence and control over the media, laws, police forces, and the military.
During the last 40 years a handful of people have taken nearly all the wealth gains of the country, yet even now 7-8 years after the collapse, they are still doing it and absolutely nothing is being done to stop them. The great majority of people aren't even aware of it!
Look at trends in personal data gathering, spying, and surveillance. The "war on terror" sure was convenient. Major media consolidation. Voting is easily electronically manipulated. Have you noticed what happens to protestors lately?
The monitoring and manipulation technology is a totalitarian government's wet dream.
If you want a look at the current state of 3d printing, here is a review site. Realize that these printers are the equivalent of 1960s computers. They are just getting started. I saw an article just last month about a whole new 3d printing technology that someone had invented.
I'm not arguing that 3D printers will not improve, but they won't help the situation at all. The problem we face isn't a lack of productivity (far from it!), but rather the end of consumer-capitalism's viability and the end of supporting institutions like democracy, human rights, and middle class prosperity. For the first time in human history, the masses will truly be like vermin to the oligarchs. Look at history. Fantasizing that this will turn into some techie utopia where everyone can build anything they want is ridiculous. That won't happen even if the "vermin" can organize and enforce egalitarian government... which is a far fetched fantasy as well.
I'm not arguing that 3D printers will not improve, but they won't help the situation at all. The problem we face isn't a lack of productivity (far from it!), but rather the end of consumer-capitalism's viability and the end of supporting institutions like democracy, human rights, and middle class prosperity. For the first time in human history, the masses will truly be like vermin to the oligarchs. Look at history. Fantasizing that this will turn into some techie utopia where everyone can build anything they want is ridiculous. That won't happen even if the "vermin" can organize and enforce egalitarian government... which is a far fetched fantasy as well.
It's the historic cycle, not an end point. When things get bad enough for the people, they revolt and chop the heads off their leaders. The trigger point is when the aristocracy loses control of the military. The resulting chaos is worse than the aristocracy, so strong men/warlords take over to restore order. When order is restored, the middle class starts to rise again and assert its democratic perogatives. The elected representatives start paying the populace for votes and caving to the rich and powerful, until the system collapses and the cycle starts again.
Robotic defense forces might extend the shelf life of the aristocracy, but eventually machines need repair and replacement.
At every time priory to our near future, the aristocracy/oligarchy depended heavily on the support of the masses for production and fighting wars. This dependency will vanish.
There was no democracy or middle class until the industrial revolution, and I've already explained how these things are symbiotic. The smart oligarchs knew that the only way to secure and increase their power was by letting the masses enjoy greater freedom and living standards. Those oligarchs who resisted this change have either been destroyed or are irrelevant.
In fact history shows that the rich and powerful have always gotten their way. Or there has been death, destruction, and poverty. Tech changed the rules for a couple centuries, and the masses in developed countries have been lulled into believing that freedom and democracy are natural and normal and could never disappear.
The rules are about to change again, and this time the oligarchs will have no use for us at all. Revolt? Good luck with that. Even the thought would make you a terrorist, and you know about the recent law changes concerning suspected terrorists. You can be locked up indefinitely without charge.
The great majority of the population will not be inclined to revolt even if they could. They will be too dependent on the authorities and too busy holding tight to what they have left.
IMHO - Detroit is showing what the rest of the country will look like in a couple of decades. Desolation surrounded by a wealthy circle. Eventually the circle will become as devastated as the core. Then the economic cycle will be complete with a very few very wealthy and near total desperation for everyone else. Think "Blade Runner" on a good day and "Mad Max" on the bad rest.
For the rest of the world there will be religious and resource wars far larger than ever. Most likely parts of the planet will become effectively depopulated after Plague, Pestilence, Famine and War have had their ride.
If humanity is lucky the remaining population of a billion or less will develop a technological utopia after the fires burn out, the radiation dies off, the dust settles and ice melts. The remaining humans will be able to live off the production of the robots without having to do much work themselves while maintaining a low and stable population.
You know, grey war, I do share some of your points. But I think you went overboard and it became a Hollywood version. We will have shiny metro areas with great high skill high income jobs. We will have a ****** rural urban divide, both economically and culturally. The public sector will have to go through a budget reduction as it has become inevitable.
Many Americans are already living a fake middle class life built on above means spending and debt and useless degrees. That's not really middle class, unless you have the middle class net worth. Most of these people will have to work to a relatively much older age, especially when the social security insolvency is upon us and the baby boomers have taken all the money to their grave. There will be movements, and there will be additional social programs, but there will also be budget crisis. But overall, these movements will be ineffectual. The sad reality is that the USA is not only not the biggest market that was once companies envy, it's purchasing power is going down. With that, the USA will be much less relevant in the market. The rise of China, India, and Brazil will probably significantly change capitalism, trade, and ultimately geopolitics and the distribution of wealth and power in the world. Eventually, we will have to either share power with China in Asia, or get the hell out. Downsizing the military will probably create higher unemployment and social unrest in the USA.
You want to fight corporations, employers, and so on. But it won't be different either way. It'll be the same results. We have passed the possibility, if you know what I mean. Greece situation is one of those turning points in history. A developed nation is going down. This is how Europe will be, and probably North America. China was actively involved in deals with Greece. It is reasonable to predict that China will probably have more involvement in western affairs in the future, for their own interest.
Not just that. The western world is going through a demographic change that its population is uncomfortable with. Especially in Europe. The friction And conflicts will also change Europes future. But think about it. This has always been European history, a history of layers of conquests and reconquests. Each generation likes to think that they are the last conclusion, but really we are just living another chapter of the same historical patterns. We won't get out of it. The European Union was a great idea and it was good while it lasted. But nothing lasts forever. I think we in the west will have to gradually learn to cope with historical natural ups and downs.
And in terms of natural resources like energy and water, there will sure be conflicts, perhaps military, around the world. Climate change will always be on the back seat, on some posters in overpriced downtowns, and in classrooms full of those who will fight and die in tomorrow's wars.
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