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June 30th is the deadline for any decision making. Its either/or now the way things look. It is leaning toward Greece dropping out of the European market. Either way for Greece is a bad situation. Whats your take on it?
My thought is that both sides start with the premise to negotiate an agreement...they don't have the authority to force a break of the Euro. The will of the Greek people to leave the Euro should probably be voted on.
Greeks can't pay their bills unless the IMF gives them money. And one of their bills is a loan payment to the IMF.
So is the IMF giving them money so they can turn around and give it back to the IMF ?
Greece is a lost cause. Let them default. The EU should make the historic move and kick them out.
Despite all the previous near misses, this one looks real. It may even have been Tirpas's goal all along.
Of all Greece's options, he may feel leaving the Euro and defaulting on all Greece's debts is the best. That's what matters. The IMF, ECB, and EU won't be able to make him change his course if this is what he really believes. He has not changed his position an iota since coming to power and I don't see him changing it in the next two weeks.
What the effects will be to Greece, the EU, other countries is unknowable. Greece could become a failed state, Europe could go into recession, world growth could be cut. Or not. But I believe the consequences for Greece would be disastrous as it would not be able to import food, medicine, fuel, i.e., the minimum requirements for existence. Unless emergency aid is donated.
I think the EU should just let Greece leave the Euro zone. The majority of Greek people clearly wanted it, and that's the reason why they voted for this Tirpas guy. Unlike Ireland or Portugal, who understood the consequences and did whatever they had to do to pull themselves together, Greece refuses to swallow the bitter pill of their own creation. It's time to let them go and deal with the consequences.
I think Greece will end up out of the EU. But I also think there's the possibility of Russia or China getting involved in exchange for basing rights, or other considerations. The EU is not the only game in town, and it depends on what the other players want, and can afford.
I admit, its low odds but I think there's still some surprises left in all of this.
Highest probability? Greece exits the EU, there's a lot of chaos, short term Greece does poorly, but then recovers. Eventually they get punished enough that they make deals to payoff debt. good investment opportunity for long term to invest in debt groups that refuse the settlement, and simply chase the money later long term.
I think the EU should just let Greece leave the Euro zone. The majority of Greek people clearly wanted it, and that's the reason why they voted for this Tirpas guy. Unlike Ireland or Portugal, who understood the consequences and did whatever they had to do to pull themselves together, Greece refuses to swallow the bitter pill of their own creation. It's time to let them go and deal with the consequences.
I suspect the long term consequences of horrific economy destroying austerity is more harmful long term then the consequences of leaving. The agreements reached with Greece were all based on unrealistic assumptions about the effects of austerity. This could have been resolved in a better manner.
June 30th is the deadline for any decision making. Its either/or now the way things look. It is leaning toward Greece dropping out of the European market. Either way for Greece is a bad situation. Whats your take on it?
There's a lot of resentment in Germany for keep having to bail out these other countries. There growing talk of Germany dropping out of the union. Take it from an American point of view, if say Mexico was part of the Dollar and we had to keep bailing them out becuase there economy was so screwed up, how would you feel? The Euro hasn't lived up to it's promises, at least for the Germans.
I suspect the long term consequences of horrific economy destroying austerity is more harmful long term then the consequences of leaving. The agreements reached with Greece were all based on unrealistic assumptions about the effects of austerity. This could have been resolved in a better manner.
There was probably more going on with those IMF loans then we know about.
One IMF loan to Greece was used to pay Germany for a prior military equipment order which Germany refused to cancel.
Some of those European countries used the Greek IMF loans to get money funneled into their own bank accounts.
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