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It's tough to automate creating intellectual property.
So the rote, mechanical, and other minimal-think jobs go first -- the touch-screen kiosk to determine whether you want fries with that. But the more that care and thought and reflection are needed, the less conducive to automation a particular function will be.
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Originally Posted by GeoffD
I think the next big frontier in automation is the medical cartel. It's approaching 20% of GDP and most of that is labor costs.
Health care is of course a unique field, and it had been tending toward posing a threat to approach 20% of GDP prior to PPACA, with drugs and medical devices being among the fast-growing aspects of it. Another key cost problem has been lack of standardized procedures and accessible information. At a doctor's office in France for example, it would be common to find that ALL persons working there were certified medical professionals of some sort. No greeters. No form-filers. No insurance company liaisons or paperwork specialists. Just trained medical people. It's from the admin side, not the medical side, that health care savings will first be coming. Decentralization of providers and putting non-doctor work off into the hands of PA's, practitioners, pharmacists, and so forth will further cut costs. Automation will of course continue, but it will continue as well to have an uncertain effect on costs.
50 years from now, it's hard to imagine that pilot, truck driver, bus driver, "mailman", UPS driver, and FEDEX driver will exist as job classifications. In many states today, truck driver is the single largest occupation. Buh-bye.
Per the futurists of years gone by, cars would have been a thing of the past by now, and we would be getting much of our water from the canals on Mars. It's amazing how consistently wrong people's suspicions of the future typically turn out to be.
In terms of US jobs, it's enormous. The market leaders in the machine tool industry are Trumf (Germany), Shenyang (China), Amada (Japan), DMTG (China), Komatsu (Japan), DMG Mori Seki (Japan & Germany), Schuler (Germany), Jtekt (Japan), .....
Haas, 14th on the list, is a US company with a couple percent market share. The US jobs for the machine tool industry suppliers are sales and support techs. I know quite a few people who do that support tech thing. They're in Mexico more than they're in the US much of the time. Those machines have displaced a huge pool of skilled machinists with much less skilled computerized machine operators who make less money and produce 10x more output. Spacely Sprockets and Coggeswell Cogs employ George Jetsons but they don't pay George Jetson wages.
Are we done yet?
That's not my question. I asked: How many workers do the machines displayed vs how many workers are needed to manufacture/support the CNC machines. I'm looking for something along the line of: X number of workers were displayed and Y number of workers are needed to support the new system.
You 1) did not provide any concrete number. 2) are only focusing on the floor. Yes, I get that they don't need as many people on the floor with the new machine, but what about all the workers not on the floor???
In a couple decades we will have machines as smart as humans?????? Son, we can't even built a machine that can translate a complete paragraph from one language to another. Heck, we can't even built a machine that can read a complete sentence and comprehend what that sentence said.
PC processing power has almost risen to mouse level. Mice have trouble with language also.
Once the processing power is sufficient, the software will soon follow.
Few really care about true art as reality TV is more important.
Just because a few low talent people can make money via reality TV that means everyone can?!
You are doing a good job of making my point. Whatever entertainment people plug into, few humans on the other end will be making a viable living. We aren't going to revert to live and personal performances. Rather the opposite.
Per the futurists of years gone by, cars would have been a thing of the past by now, and we would be getting much of our water from the canals on Mars. It's amazing how consistently wrong people's suspicions of the future typically turn out to be.
In truth a lot of futurists are about as reliable as any marketeer who is trying to sell something. Sensational BS gets attention, and no one pays heed to the scientists and engineers who consider the practical aspects.
In truth a lot of futurists are about as reliable as any marketeer who is trying to sell something. Sensational BS gets attention, and no one pays heed to the scientists and engineers who consider the practical aspects.
Ray Kurzweil has proven pretty accurate in his predictions so far. Not 100%, and while he claims 95% or so, I'd put him in the 80-90% range personally. And thats pretty darned good.
And he speaks with the scientists and engineers who consider the practical aspects. He doesn't just make wild guesses.
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