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What’s The Real Unemployment Rate: 10.2% Or 18.8%?
Erik Sherman
Erik ShermanS
Forbes
1. An unemployment rate of 10.2% is worse than the nadir during the Great Recession.
2. The job growth rate has significantly slowed and, without fiscal stimulus, could fall further.
3.Unemployment among Whites was 9.2%. For Blacks, 14.6%. Asian, 12.0%. Hispanics, 12.9%. Adult women’s unemployment of 10.5% is heavier than the 9.4% of men. There are some huge disparities, and probably perceptions, of impact.
4.The number out of work from 15 to 26 weeks shot up from 1.9 million in June to almost 6.5 million in July (increase of 4.6 million). The number unemployed from 5 to 14 weeks dropped from 11.5 million to 5.2 million (decrease of 6.3 million). That suggests the majority moved to being out of work for even longer—at least four months. (How well would most people do if out of work for that long?)
5.The number of unemployed is still 10.5 million higher than in February.
6. About a third of the additional jobs came in leisure and hospitality, and those are the ones likely to get hit hard again as big states that have seen virus resurgence find themselves having to reclose businesses.
7. The broader U-6 measure of unemployment, which includes such people as those working part-time but not of their volition and people who have given up, is at 16.5%.
8.There were about as many people who had permanently lost jobs in both months, so no increase, but also no decline.
9. People who usually work part-time increased by 803,000 to 24.0 million.
10.The household survey that establishes unemployment rates had a response rate of 67%—up a bit from June but still well off the average 83% for 12 months before the pandemic. When response rates significantly drop, chances are good that results are less accurate.
11. Many people were categorized as on temporary layoff rather than unemployed. Reclassifying them as out of work would mean official unemployment more than 11%.
12.Department of Labor unemployment insurance (UI) statistics show that as of July 18, 31.3 million people were claiming UI, compared to 30.8 million the previous week.
13.The BLS count says that 16.3 million are unemployed, or 14.5 million fewer than the ones getting UI.
I don't think BLS statistics mean much for the average person and the answers John Everyman is seeking, because they focus on things like the unemployment RATE, and using them to research salaries will be a very discouraging endeavor. Sure, when you run out of people to lay off, the rate will go down. I'm waiting for the quarter to close so we can finally deem this a recession, which it is. The only thing preserving real estate as much as it has remained stable (if we can call it that) is the $600/wk payments for people who still can't find comparable work.
The new 'medical advisor' who currently has The Donald's ear has no experience in epidemiology and is pushing for a 'rush' to 'herd immunity'. This does not bode well, nor does recent information that the gov't has been keeping info from the public in order to down-play the seriousness of the crisis as per recently declassified documents. See Kaiser Health News for more info.
I hope I am wrong, but my current feeling is that, absent a proven vaccine in the very near future, Covid case counts are going to start rising again, fueled by more than half a million bikers spreading out from Sturgis and Laconia as well as schools and colleges re-opening. By Winter we will be in the midst of a second wave that will be far worse than the first.
Hospitals will become overloaded and patients will be turned away. Death tolls will rise as those who might have been saved will not be due to lack of care. People in need of critical care services for other reasons will be turned away due to a lack of personnel and room. By January bodies will be stacking up faster than they can be buried.
Civil unrest will continue to increase. More and more people will see police as the 'enemy', random incidents will turn to pitched battles and the police will be overwhelmed. National Guard troops will be called in, 80% of them will defect to the side of the people with their more effective weaponry, the remainder will lay down their weapons and walk away. Federal troops will be called in...with the same result, except they will bring air assault and heavy artillery as well as tanks and heavy weaponry. The next presidential inauguration will not be at the Capitol or White House...because they won't be there anymore. It won't matter who is 'elected'.
This is a 'worst case' scenario, but I no longer see it as unlikely. If changes are not made soon, the fecal matter may very well hit the rotating air velocitator in a big (and bad) way. I don't know, maybe we need for it to happen. I have no confidence in the majority of 'politicians' on either side of the aisle. We need a change, one way or another.
There are now a variety of fast coronavirus tests that could be readily administered by businesses and schools and provide results within 20 minutes. These tests require only saliva samples, not deep upper nose swabs, and can be readily administered by practically anyone with very modest training. The FDA just approved “emergency use” of one of them by the NBA. The problem is that they won’t let the rest of us use them. Recently I was offered highly effective and economical rapid tests developed by an extremely well-qualified biotech firm. But FDA rules precluded transporting their tests across state lines. Upon appeal it now appears that the FDA might be willing to authorize such shipments on an “emergency basis,” but only for use in already overbooked clinics certified by yet another bloated and inefficient bureaucracy.
This won’t do. We need to be able to use the tests ourselves.
No clinics. No prescription. No doctor visit. No faxing forms to insurance companies.
Quote:
If we were allowed to use these tests, schools and businesses could test their students and workers at the start of each week and send all virus carriers home by 9 a.m. Monday. We could end the pandemic within four weeks, without needing to shut down any schools or companies.
Testing every American every two weeks means about 30 million tests a day.
Quote:
The authorities can’t possibly administer 30 million tests per day. But we — the people — can do it easily, provided we are allowed to do so.
We are currently forbidden from doing so by the FDA. The financial cost is trivial compared to the $5 trillion the government is spending on Covid relief.
I can envision a scenario where EVERY school administers a fast saliva test each morning, and by 9AM it sends home any student/teacher/administrator/other employee who tests positive.
I can envision a scenario where EVERY restaurant and bar & grill tests each employee every day and sends home anyone who is infected. I envision a scenario where EVERY would-be patron is tested prior to being seated, and anyone testing positive is sent home.
There would be "false positives," of course, and some "false negatives." So what? By isolating those who test positive, we could turn open up the rest of the economy that is currently on hiatus.
Into the thread before Taggerung arrives saying everything is about to fall apart on a scale not seen since the Big Bang and life as we know it will end by 3:30 pm next Wednesday!
LOL. Not sure who that is but I see the trend for threads here and it's always the same. This used to be a good forum for economics, now every thread attacks politics (on both sides), predicts doom, and the investment advice is always the same - "oh buy gold".
I would never recommend this site for investment or economic advice.
In my particular niche of my subfield, there are usually a couple hundred FT positions advertizing nationally at any given time. During the Great Recession it was like 50ish.
Once covid hit, EVERYWHERE went into a hiring freeze and still are. There are currently 9 openings according to my sources.
Granted this not a big career field, but I can't imagine such a drastic reduction being indicative of anything good.
large employers are manipulating the unemployment numbers right now .
these are things most arm chair economist wanna bees are not aware of .
i learned this from my son who is a prominent corporate attorney .
by law those furloughed have to go to full termination after 6 months .....march to sept is a 6 month window
so that means many who thought they were furloughed and getting benefits paid thought they had jobs and were still spending pretty freely .so they are going to go from furloughed to terminated in sept and oct .
when companies have mass terminations they must give a certain amount of notice to employees when they are terminating more then a certain amount of employees ...
to get around that , big companies have been bringing back just enough furloughed people so they stay under the 60 day notification required number .
that way they can just terminate furloughed employees . those employees brought back will be terminated down the road , again skirting the 60 days notice .
so we should see the employment numbers shrink for 2 or 3 months as just enough furloughed employees are brought back prior to the 6 month period , then re-grow as those brought back are re-fired
The WARN Act is not activated when a covered employer:
closes a temporary facility or completes a temporary project, and the employees working in the facility or temporary project were hired with the clear understanding that their employment would end with the closing of the work facility or the completion of the project; or
closes a facility or operating unit because of a strike or a worker lock-out, and the closing is not intended to evade the purposes of the WARN Act.
If a plant closing or a mass layoff results in fewer than 50 workers losing their jobs at a single employment site;
If 50 to 499 workers lose their jobs and that number is less than 33% of the employer's total, active workforce at a single employment site;
If a layoff is for 6 months or less; or
If work hours are not reduced 50% in each month of any 6-month period.
This, this, and this.
We had a furlough of about 1,300 people back in April. Something like 70% were brought back, but of those that weren't, furlough was officially extended until 12/31, with no real plans to bring back any of these. Sure, their insurance is being paid, but that's all they really have. While technically "employed," they're not receiving pay, and will likely be out of a job soon.
United Airlines is furloughing 16,000. Some will probably be brought back when there is a vaccine and travel rebounds, but it may be many years before lots of industries get back to 2019 staffing levels.
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