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Old 07-10-2008, 10:55 PM
 
Location: Apple Valley Calif
7,474 posts, read 20,683,969 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by baystater View Post
Well my guesstimate is if bush only launches some missiles or dropped some bombs on target. I think oil may go up to $175 in 2 days or so. Then would slow back off to lower levels $140 -$145 in two months.

If Bush commits any ground forces.

1. Bush will be impeached. Which will show lack of faith by the people in their government and the dollar will plummet.

2. Oil will reach $220 in two days

3. The cost of Iraq will pale in comparison to what it will cost to fight Iran. We will go into debt into the trillions of dollars.

4. Russian will laugh all the way to the bank with record oil profits thanks to the new American war.
You need to get more sleep, where do you think up these crazy things? Not even close to correct on any one of your "Points.!"

 
Old 07-11-2008, 07:28 AM
 
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
4,429 posts, read 5,807,967 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donn2390 View Post
You need to get more sleep, where do you think up these crazy things? Not even close to correct on any one of your "Points.!"
And why is that? Please counter point me with your views on Geopolitics and possible economic outcomes of a possible outcome with a war with Iran. It's too easy to say I'm crazy and walk away. Come on. Put some effort into it.

Btw I been called crazy before. I believe it was for saying the housing market was going to crash 2 1/2 years ago. Hmmm....I guess I needed more sleep back then too.
 
Old 07-11-2008, 11:31 AM
 
Location: Ohio
21,311 posts, read 15,089,573 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by baystater View Post
If Bush commits any ground forces.

1. Bush will be impeached.
Bush can legally commit ground forces without a declaration of war under the War Powers act, so no, he won't be impeached.

It would take only a false flag incident akin to the "Gulf of Tonkin Incident" to give the president the authority to attack without a declaration of war.

However, the reality is that Bush could probably consult with House and Senate leaders and get a tentative declaration of war without a full vote by the House or Senate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by baystater View Post
Which will show lack of faith by the people in their government and the dollar will plummet.
That would not cause the US$ to "plummet" in value.

Quote:
Originally Posted by baystater View Post
2. Oil will reach $220 in two days
That would be caused by speculation, not oil shortages. The bulk of Iran's oil is heavy oil anyway, which is currently selling between $41/barrel and $104/barrel, not $147/barrel like light and intermediate grade crudes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by baystater View Post
3. The cost of Iraq will pale in comparison to what it will cost to fight Iran. We will go into debt into the trillions of dollars.
Not likely. 90% of the population of Khuzestan are Arabic speaking Shi'a Arabs whose kinsmen and clansmen live in Iraq and Kuwait and who would view the US as "liberators" especially since they've attempted over a dozen times to declare independence, most recently during the Iranian "revolution" and then twice during the Iraq-Iran War.

If you want to know why Arabs are in Persia, you'll have to have a séance with the fat liquor swilling pig Churchill, since he drew the map that way.

The joke is that Kuwait was created when Churchill hiccuped while drawing the map. He was tanked and probably doesn't even remember it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by baystater View Post
I4. Russian will laugh all the way to the bank with record oil profits thanks to the new American war.
Their production has declined 0.9% during the first half of 2008. They won't be profiting that much, especially since heavy crudes sell for less than light and intermediate grade crude oils, and there's a glut worldwide that is increasing due to bottlenecks at heavy oil refineries.
 
Old 07-11-2008, 11:57 AM
 
55,137 posts, read 43,954,649 times
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Meh, there isn't going to be a war with Iran...it's just posturing by both sides. I've seen no credible explanation as to why a war is "impending" and there has been stuff like this for decades with Iran.
 
Old 07-11-2008, 12:05 PM
 
Location: US
1,189 posts, read 3,672,382 times
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Slightly relevant article..

Spammers announce World War III - Security - iTnews Australia

I guess they're getting bored with usual v14gR41!1! stuff.
 
Old 07-11-2008, 12:14 PM
 
Location: Lake Arlington Heights, IL
5,479 posts, read 10,670,442 times
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Quote:
Going to war against a nation who has an embargo. Hmm.

How is that different than going to war with Peru?

No oil is effected either way. Yes they have oil, but it is not the right kind, nor are they allowed to sell it.
It would have a HUGE effect because it would be a huge disruption in the psychology of the investing community. Futures trading involves a lot of psychology of perceived future events.
What happens if the Iranians, by chance, damage our carrier task force(s) in the gulf and it does disrupt oil shipments far longer than anyone thinks?
 
Old 07-11-2008, 03:29 PM
 
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
4,429 posts, read 5,807,967 times
Reputation: 1708
[quote]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Bush can legally commit ground forces without a declaration of war under the War Powers act, so no, he won't be impeached.

It would take only a false flag incident akin to the "Gulf of Tonkin Incident" to give the president the authority to attack without a declaration of war.

However, the reality is that Bush could probably consult with House and Senate leaders and get a tentative declaration of war without a full vote by the House or Senate.

Bush has already cried wolf once. He can't get away with a first strike this time. And with the INTERNET/camera phones, etc. now-a-days trying to create a gulf of tokin incident is nearly impossible. The only two ways that Bush can pull this off. 1. Iran actually commits a large force or regular army to an attack on U.S. soldiers/interests or 2. He uses Israel as a proxy to fight for us. Which I believe everyone would see through right away.
Now while you are right that the president does have the power to send troops out to war at his/here choosing under the war powers act. But only congress can declare war on a country and the president has 30 days in to which he has to convince them to do so. Now if bush put in ground forces in Iran I think I can safely assume it going to take more than 30 days for all American troops to clear out of the country after the first attack. By then instead of giving bush the OK this time to fight Iran they're going to probably slap with with Impeachment. Let me clarify that I mean Impeachment not removal from office. define:impeachment - Google Search

So basically nobody is going to listen to him anymore and instead of being just a lame duck. He be a dead duck with orange sauce.



Quote:
That would not cause the US$ to "plummet" in value.
An Impeachment which would show all other countries our weakness/lack of faith in leadership (executive branch) and/or attack on Iran did happen would cause dollar to plummet in the short term because money for better or for worse for the most part is "Fiat" (refer to a monetary system in which the money used as the circulating medium of exchange is not backed by or directly convertible into any specific physical commodity, but rather has value because the society that created the system has assigned it value.) and after an attack on Iran the value of our currency would probably be called to question by other world powers. basically. Not to many countries would be looking to buy the dollar. In fact I suspect that a lot of countries out there would sell off the dollar in response to our attacking Iran even if it was justified. Basically there faith in our American society would be shot. And the next president patches then up which could take a whole term to do so.

And of course since the dollar is tied to oil. So The less the dollar is worth the more expensive the oil is that we will import into to the country. And this is not even taking into account that the "Perceived" instability of the middle eastern oil areas.



Quote:
That would be caused by speculation, not oil shortages. The bulk of Iran's oil is heavy oil anyway, which is currently selling between $41/barrel and $104/barrel, not $147/barrel like light and intermediate grade crudes.
In my original post I never said that if we went to war in Iran that there would a rise in oil because of shortages. You are correct that it would be speculation based on fear of instability. Although in the longer term Iran will probably become a industrial terrorist attacking oil interest all over the middle east and creating quite a headache for all western societies.


Quote:
Not likely. 90% of the population of Khuzestan are Arabic speaking Shi'a Arabs whose kinsmen and clansmen live in Iraq and Kuwait and who would view the US as "liberators" especially since they've attempted over a dozen times to declare independence, most recently during the Iranian "revolution" and then twice during the Iraq-Iran War.
All I have to say to this is. Didn't we hear the same thing about Iraq. Yeah. Turn out well didn't it.


Quote:
Their production has declined 0.9% during the first half of 2008. They won't be profiting that much, especially since heavy crudes sell for less than light and intermediate grade crude oils, and there's a glut worldwide that is increasing due to bottlenecks at heavy oil refineries.
Has Russian oil output peaked? | csmonitor.com

Well we will have to see. I think (conjecture of course) that if we attack Iran. Iran will uses operatives to hinder Saudi's and other producers of oil in the area of the middle east creating shortages. Now Russia's and Venezuela's oil is not the greatest oil to use but any oil is good oil. And China and India need it to drive there economies. Not to mention we need it to drive our cars.
 
Old 07-11-2008, 03:56 PM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,484,473 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by baystater View Post
I don't disagree that Iran's military will not stand a chance against the U.S.
But the problem (at least I believe that) Iran will run out small scale terrorist attacks against refineries and pipelines across the middle east. Basically they will be a general nuisance that will help shorten up supplies of oil from the area and the price of oil will rise. They probably also use operatives in Syria to start small hit and run operations in Israel. Further destabilizing the region. And again this will rise the price of oil.
Small scale attacks against pipelines are a common occurance now, security against these types of attacks is both effective and severe, usually death, it is a pretty efficient deterent. Iran already has much civil unrest and the goverment would have it's hands full just trying to keep from being overthrown. Many people in Iran do not support the goverment and would welcome an opportunity to replace it. The people of Iran do not want nukes, they want a better standard of living.
 
Old 07-11-2008, 05:01 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 74,761,325 times
Reputation: 27602
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Small scale attacks against pipelines are a common occurance now, security against these types of attacks is both effective and severe, usually death, it is a pretty efficient deterent. Iran already has much civil unrest and the goverment would have it's hands full just trying to keep from being overthrown. Many people in Iran do not support the goverment and would welcome an opportunity to replace it. The people of Iran do not want nukes, they want a better standard of living.
That is so funny..just replace "Iran" with "Iraq" and you have deja vu.

Where are the people of Iran screaming for us to come in and save them ?
Links please.
 
Old 07-11-2008, 05:13 PM
 
Location: Forests of Maine
31,524 posts, read 51,123,777 times
Reputation: 20515
Quote:
Originally Posted by cubssoxfan View Post
It would have a HUGE effect because it would be a huge disruption in the psychology of the investing community. Futures trading involves a lot of psychology of perceived future events.
What happens if the Iranians, by chance, damage our carrier task force(s) in the gulf and it does disrupt oil shipments far longer than anyone thinks?
So long as we can bring the psychological effects on the economy, we might as well chart the phases of the moon too.

I doubt that a US battle group is going to be 'damaged' by Iran. Each battle group is required to keep one combatant underneath them at all times, in the off chance that a true threat were to surface.
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