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As someone who has traveled the entire world numerous times (hence my screen name) I realized long ago, that the US is not the only game on earth. That being said, make no bones about it, if the US economy fails entirely, so does the rest of the world's. I do not think we are superior, or "better" then anyone else, it is just the way the game is setup right now to be played. In a few more decades the rules of this game might be changed some, but for now, as we go, so does everyone else.
As someone who has traveled the entire world numerous times (hence my screen name) I realized long ago, that the US is not the only game on earth. That being said, make no bones about it, if the US economy fails entirely, so does the rest of the world's. I do not think we are superior, or "better" then anyone else, it is just the way the game is setup right now to be played. In a few more decades the rules of this game might be changed some, but for now, as we go, so does everyone else.
European economy is largely intertwined with the U.S. However, for the rest of the world, they can do without us. I don't believe for a minute that an economic crash in the U.S. will lead to a global collapse.
As someone who has traveled the entire world numerous times (hence my screen name) I realized long ago, that the US is not the only game on earth. That being said, make no bones about it, if the US economy fails entirely, so does the rest of the world's. I do not think we are superior, or "better" then anyone else, it is just the way the game is setup right now to be played. In a few more decades the rules of this game might be changed some, but for now, as we go, so does everyone else.
I've travelled the world as well and have an exactly opposite opinion. The rest of the world is getting by just fine without us. Russia demand is booming for cars, Singapore GDP up double digits. We're just dead weight to these people. Sowwy.
The markets are intertwined but the economies are not. As the markets decouple from the toxic US dollar, they will be breathing very well indeed. I look forward to decades of higher appreciation for my foreign holdings.
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan
Now you say this every time the market goes up or oil goes down.
Do you honestly believe this ? Do you ever post on bad days ?
DJIA was up almost 300 points in one day! You cannot ask for a better performance than that. That means confidence in the future is coming back. Oil is falling again this morning and Dow Futures are up 60! It is going to be another good day today.
Dead cat bounce. Bear trap. Take your pick. Watch the tape. While some are buying, many are selling into strength. The charts tell the tale. We are in a bear market and the trend is down.
Because we are so intertwined globally, I don't think the world economy can afford to let the U.S. collapse. We will get help as needed. But it's humiliating and pathetic that we have gotten ourselves into this untenable position. We look like fools on the world stage. We need a complete financial overhaul, but it would be too painful for too many, so we're unlikely to get that. What we are likely to get is more government interference, more foreign infusions and growing dissatisfaction from the populace. There will be more whining and finger pointing from the underclasses and more dissatisfaction and disdain from the upperclasses as the middle class merges into one of two equally disgruntled camps-- those looking for bailouts and never thinking they get enough and those increasingly tired of providing bailouts to those they don't think deserve them. Pick your team now-- we're in the early innings of loooong ballgame. And nobody's cheering.
Dead cat bounce. Bear trap. Take your pick. Watch the tape. While some are buying, many are selling into strength. The charts tell the tale. We are in a bear market and the trend is down.
Because we are so intertwined globally, I don't think the world economy can afford to let the U.S. collapse. We will get help as needed. But it's humiliating and pathetic that we have gotten ourselves into this untenable position. We look like fools on the world stage. We need a complete financial overhaul, but it would be too painful for too many, so we're unlikely to get that. What we are likely to get is more government interference, more foreign infusions and growing dissatisfaction from the populace. There will be more whining and finger pointing from the underclasses and more dissatisfaction and disdain from the upperclasses as the middle class merges into one of two equally disgruntled camps-- those looking for bailouts and never thinking they get enough and those increasingly tired of providing bailouts to those they don't think deserve them. Pick your team now-- we're in the early innings of loooong ballgame. And nobody's cheering.
Then again, what does Mr. Schiff know about markets? He only predicated skyrocketing food/energy prices, 50% reduction in CA/FL real estate, $1000 gold, reduction in the Dow/Gold ratio moving quickly towards parity, falling support for the dollar, Fannie/Freddie insolvency. The last domino to fall is the bond market, then it'll be too late to leave the dollar as the government will likely make it illegal.
Ironic that we are geared to replicate China/Soviet Union's former gov't command and control economy while they move speedily towards capialism?
Plus, Peter made me a ton of money over the past 5 years.
You are correct, IMO, that it was a dead cat bounce, perhaps extending into a 2nd day. Gradual bear markets have violent bull runs, just as gradual bull markets have violent bear pullbacks.
Oh, I've been following Peter for a while and I agree with much of what he says, especially:
Somehow, the U.S. could buy itself some additional time. We could convince the world -- Europe and Asia -- that they need us, and that while propping up the U.S. economy is going to hurt them with more inflation, letting the U.S. collapse is going to be even worse.
I believe Bailout America ironically will get bailed out by the new world superpowers. We live in a global economy and, though weakened, the U.S. is one leg of the table. When we start to collapse, the whole table teeters and falls, so we'll get propped up until we can mend and strengthen. I think we can do it and I'm on board with Peter here, too:
We are going to have to replenish our savings. We are going to have to rebuild our industry. We are going to have to repair our infrastructure. All of that is possible, though it's not easy. It's going to be very difficult given the current level of government we have, along with the types of taxation and regulations we have. To really rebuild the economy, we are going to need cooperation from government and the government is going to have to get out of the way and make itself a much smaller burden on society, which means major reductions in government spending, taxes and regulations.
I think people who are enthralled with the rise of China and predict the (apparently) related downfall of the US forget one important thing. Without us to buy all their cheap crap at Wal-mart and other discounters, a fairly significant portion of China's export industry goes right into the crapper, right? And today the WSJ reports that the EU is headed south, with Spain's largest-ever single business failure in their history happening on Tuesday, when a construction giant ($17.17 billion firm) filed for bankruptcy.
So we have a market correction in real estate and wall street punishes the finance market that helped create the RE mess, and a bunch of other countries that have been feeding at the teat of American consumerism has to suck it up. I just don't think much has changed...
But I could be wrong....I frequently am...so this is just my $.02...
Hey Sage,
That is sort of a common -- it must be all about US, if they are building all that stuff for US -- misconception.
For a wider perspective, maybe think of a pig at a factory farm. He just sits there and is a "consumer" as you say. Probably from the pig's perspective, he is the star of the farm. And until his real purpose is served, from his own view he may be correct. Of course, on this storyline we can step outside the pig sty and see his outcome. Harder for US to do that with ourselves.
The build-up of export markets from the Far East routine has been done before. As have the build-up of Capital reserves. And extreme interest from that area in international energy -- especially oil, has all happened before.
Japan 1920 is a very close model of the China we are presently funding and help (re)create. As we slip below the buyer stage for them, they will not somehow wither on the vine -- anymore than the farm above stops when the pig goes to slaughter. It never really was about the pig and it is not about US.
China will shift markets, as Japan did in its time, and I guess we all know how that turns out.
Now that would be a huge positive to look forward to! Maybe this is not so bad after all!
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