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Old 01-28-2009, 04:25 PM
 
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
8,299 posts, read 13,609,766 times
Reputation: 8084

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A Red-Letter Day for Layoffs - BusinessWeek........ A growing number of economists also say that the U.S. economy is not just shedding jobs temporarily, but may be undergoing a painful restructuring process that will eliminate some types of jobs for good. "We are seeing very large layoffs—the kind you get when companies don't expect to be re-employing any time soon," says Peter Morici, a professor at the Robert H. Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland. "They [represent] structural, not cyclical, changes to the economy. We're looking at a permanently smaller economy with prolonged unemployment at an unacceptable level."
Jobs Gone for Good

Morici says that housing, real estate, automobiles, finance, and retail sectors are resetting to "permanent lower levels" of employment. Mike Montgomery, an economist with IHS Global Insight, asserts that many jobs in autos, manufacturing, apparel, and textiles aren't coming back. Those industries "have been in a long-term decline, and the recession is knocking them out."
"We are very early in the cycle," says Morici. "We are going to see the fury of the Old Testament for what we have done to the economy."
Many economists see nationwide unemployment rising to at least 9% this year, possibly reaching double digits in 2010. All 50 states and the District of Columbia recorded both over-the-month and over-the-year unemployment rate increases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported on Jan. 27. Nineteen states are already above the national average of 7.2%, with Michigan (10.6%), Rhode Island (10.0%) now into the double digits. South Carolina (9.5%), California (9.3%) and Nevada (9.1%) follow closely behind. ......... (article continued at A Red-Letter Day for Layoffs - BusinessWeek )
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Old 01-28-2009, 04:35 PM
 
Location: Rockland County New York
2,984 posts, read 5,656,835 times
Reputation: 1298
I am not surprise to hear this terrible new but I see civil war in the near future if this trend is not reversed. Does anyone think people are going to just sit around let their entire life's work disappear? People's faith in the government is stained all ready. I don't think Washington believes Osama’s plans could make or break the nation. It could be the governments last chance to pull its self together. If not our country will fractured under the strain.
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Old 01-28-2009, 04:47 PM
 
3,755 posts, read 5,174,699 times
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It's really not the governments responsibility to provide jobs for people. Anyone is always free to start up their own business and take their destiny into their own hands, but I know that's easier said than done.
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Old 01-28-2009, 04:57 PM
 
28,460 posts, read 81,519,993 times
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Honestly this Morici character is getting too funny with his own self promotion.

How over the top is it to even come up with a phrase like "the fury of the Old Testament"???

I mean I thought I put a stake through this vampire's heart the last time he was quoted here...

//www.city-data.com/forum/6977249-post5.html
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Old 01-28-2009, 05:13 PM
 
Location: rain city
2,957 posts, read 12,326,220 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stac2007 View Post
I don't think Washington believes Osama’s plans could make or break the nation.
Osama is making plans for us?

We ARE in trouble.
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Old 01-28-2009, 05:49 PM
 
3,852 posts, read 12,466,562 times
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It only makes sense. I think we will see 10%+ unemployment for at least the next 10 years.

We are much worse off than the great depression.
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Old 01-28-2009, 05:50 PM
 
Location: NJ
2,211 posts, read 6,817,231 times
Reputation: 2192
Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
Honestly this Morici character is getting too funny with his own self promotion.

How over the top is it to even come up with a phrase like "the fury of the Old Testament"???

I mean I thought I put a stake through this vampire's heart the last time he was quoted here...

//www.city-data.com/forum/6977249-post5.html

Your post that you linked to was more of a personal attack than either a reasoned critique of his CV or an analysis of his opinions.

He is a professor, his field is Economics, his experience is over 30 years - according to the link you posted. Where exactly do you diverge with him in his analysis and why? Could you post some of your own analysis of the future of employment and industry in this country and give sources, background etc. for that analysis.

Thank you.
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Old 01-28-2009, 06:20 PM
 
Location: Rockland County New York
2,984 posts, read 5,656,835 times
Reputation: 1298
Quote:
Originally Posted by trishguard View Post
It's really not the governments responsibility to provide jobs for people. Anyone is always free to start up their own business and take their destiny into their own hands, but I know that's easier said than done.
It was also not the responsibility of the government to save failing banks and other corporate entities by using tax payer money but alas that is what has happened.
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Old 01-28-2009, 06:24 PM
 
28,460 posts, read 81,519,993 times
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Morici is nothing but a self promoter. His CV makes clear that he is expert only in writing OpEds. His pathetic two years with the Clinton administration accomplished nothing other than further inflating his ability to put on the "lab coat of authority" to try and put one over on the gullible.

My analysis: The Old Testement is an interesting book that probably began as oral traditon in the ancient near east, probably in the 12th century BC. The oldest existing written remnants come from the Dead Sea Scrolls, dating from about 100 AD.

Sources:Dead Sea scrolls - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Old Testament - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Background: There is little in the Old Testment about economics / employment history, but I am confidanent that any such references are not particularly relavent to current measures to foster growth.
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Old 01-28-2009, 08:20 PM
 
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
8,299 posts, read 13,609,766 times
Reputation: 8084
I don't know if there's going to be permanent damage to the economy or not, but it's certainly possible. We might eventually climb out of the hole a few years down the road with the help of currently cheap energy ...... I guess "currently cheap" is the key phrase, we're past peak oil production and if we don't start developing alternatives on a huge scale (along with good electric vehicles), we won't have much chance of avoiding permanent thirdworld status. Advanced civilizations with large populations need plenty of energy to run and to feed their citizens.

Of this optimistic view of possible recovery in a few years assumes that none of several potential global disasters such as bird flu or nuclear terrorism lands a knockout punch.
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