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The charts I quoted are all recent, and changes in the aggregate cost of goods is determined in the same way whether the economy is in a recession or expanding.....
You are giving a false argument because none of that has anything to do with what I posted. One more time. You beat up on most of the people here for saying there is food inflation because you simply refuse to believe it. Your belief is based on a chart you googled up. Fine, other than the rude behavior your belief is your business. I certainly have no interest in your education and never said I did. However this isn't enough for you as you also have to attack anyone else whose statements don't support your beliefs.
One of your attacks belittles the party for not understanding that economics changes behavior. Yet your chart, one of the pillars of your universe, clearly says they don't take into account behavior changes due to the economy. What? How can this be? They even admit that it is one of the reasons the data is criticized for not being reflective of reality. It's is obvious you googled it up after the fact and didn't take the time to understand it's contents. One lesson for you son, when you use someone else's arguments as your own then you better make an attempt to understand it first. LOL
As someone commented about you in the moving out of a house topic. If you are provided a link then you immediately take every effort to discredit it simply because it doesn't meet your theory of the universe. It's not me saying it, its everyone on this forum. One more time, I don't get into these childish battle of the links.
No, idea what "moving out of a house topic" you are referring to. But I still that you still have no evidence that food is "spiraling upwards".
Quote:
Originally Posted by lumbollo
You are giving a false argument because none of that has anything to do with what I posted. One more time. You beat up on most of the people here for saying there is food inflation because you simply refuse to believe it. Your belief is based on a chart you googled up.
You suggested that food prices are "inflating", the chart shows that is not accurate. You have not provided a single piece of data that suggests what you claim is actually true...you just keep going on and on with insipid excuses.
The chart I cited is not some random chart, it is a chart created by FRED (which would never come up in google, btw) based on the CPI data.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lumbollo
Yet your chart, one of the pillars of your universe, clearly says they don't take into account behavior changes due to the economy. What? How can this be? They even admit that it is one of the reasons the data is criticized for not being reflective of reality.
The chart just displays data, you are talking about the underlying methodology used to collect the data. Determining changes in the aggregate cost of goods is not a simple task despite the fact that you guys think you can do it by your weekly trips to the grocery store. The current methodology used to index aggregate prices takes into account shifts in consumer behavior, in fact an index that became inaccurate during economic cycles would be useless.
Right I had no idea what you were referring to, the topic on that forum is the housing market. I simply asked the poster for the wrong sort of examples, and I stated just that. But if you want to debate about my claims about the housing market this is not the correct thread.
.... But if you want to debate about my claims about the housing market this is not the correct thread.
Has nothing to do with that and you know it. The point was that if someone provides you a link as you demand here, your response is to immediately criticise it or distract from it. Your response is an excellent demonstration.
Its amazing that even your vision seems to distort a graph that is right in front of your face! The index collapsed by ~40% between 1995 and 1999, there are multiple jumps of ~30% with a couple of years within the "stable" period. Very odd idea of stability!
Even the spike in 2007/2008 is not dramatically different than spikes in the poast, although it looks bigger in this graph. Know why? Because its a linear graph.
Regardless, this graph does not show that the "commodity food price index" is currently out of control, rather it shows that prices are moderating. But to say it again, these indexes do NOT represent the prices we pay at the grocery store! The only reason I posted a commodity index is to show that your claim about poultry was nonsense.
The trend since the recession hit has been down, unsurprisingly during the credit bubble the trend was up. Do you seriously not understand how the current economic problems would shift the behavior of these markets?!
You are really wasting your talents here on these posts, the ability to convince people black is really white, and right is really wrong, is a very sought after skill group in politics, it just does not fly here.
Tex I agree with you on a personal finance basis. If your wages are cut (i.e. less money in YOUR case), that $40 fill up at the gas station cuts more into your monthly budget. More expensive on a "dollar per dollar" basis, as you say. . .
However from a macroeconomic perspective, you couldn't be more wrong.
Less money / same supply = DEFLATION
I think a lot of those in the inflation camp wrongfully look at the bailouts as cash injections into the "system". BUT --> If this cash sits in bank vaults unloaned, is it really in "the system"? Is it driving prices up by competing with existing dollars? Nope. In fact it doesn't exist at all, except on their balance sheets.
For anyone who believes that the money supply has greatly increased in the last couple years, I challenge you to add up the depreciation of assets (houses, businesses), and compare to what the government has created through stimulus. We've lost a lot more than we've "printed", sorry to say. Less money = deflation.
This is closer to the truth of things than most people think, the terms, "inflation & deflation" are still relevant to the overall money supply, and as the poster has said it's apparent that we now are seeing a much "smaller economy" overall. For the doomers though it hardly matters, both inflation and deflation are no friend of the working man.......
Has nothing to do with that and you know it. The point was that if someone provides you a link as you demand here, your response is to immediately criticise it or distract from it. Your response is an excellent demonstration.
My response was that I asked for irrelevant examples, it was my fault the poster supplied exactly what I asked for but what I asked for was silly.
But its amazing that you think criticizing information someone provides is some how bad...And it looks like you still have supplied zero data to show that the costs of food are "spiraling upwards".
I see a few problems with this, prices of assets usually requiring financing have not stayed the same they have decreased,(despite what the media is telling you) and will decrease further as purchasing power of the consumer continues to deteriorate due to poor employment. Banks have already removed some $5.6 trillion in consumer credit from the system. Wages will not increase until unemployment improves and there is no reason for unemployment to improve.
We have been in a credit driven bubble economy for 20 years. At the same time we were living large on borrowed money, the corporate world was dismantling our manufacturing base and shipping the factories and jobs overseas in order to increase profits, at the expense of the American workers. Manufacturing (the real engine of wealth) is now only 10% of our economy. So here we are left with a service based economy incapable of generating real wealth, and unable to return to the ways of the past where we were borrowing our way to prosperity. So what is going to be the engine of recovery? There is no engine. Add to this the skyrocketing debts of the various governments (Federal, State, and Local) which will need to be serviced with ever increasing taxes, and the amount left for consumers to spend decreases even more. As I see it, this all this adds up to the next 20 years being a time of high unemployment, high taxes, tight credit, and continual de-leveraging and write down of overvalued financed assets.
Agree. However banks have removed their bad assets off the books and are purchasing other assets with monies given to them (injected) into their balance sheets which they are putting into the system through M&A as well as contributing to reducing inventories.
After hearing the great prognosticators and the ones supposedly in the know (Greenspan, Bernanke, Geithner, et al) saying that the growth engine returning us back to prosperity will be lead by and go through the stock market and the financial's, I just don't see any good coming from it.
Well, I think in this country the people at the top live by different rules - the more you screw up the better your chances of getting wealth and fame!
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