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Lol, posts on DU prove what? Two articles that don't cite any numbers? That is the best you can do? Show me a CNN report that cites numbers. When you do, they will say 52%/48% as of 3 PM or so, and 53%/46% as a final call. You're being childish citing early Tuesday reports that were reporting the early sampling. The final sampling correlates well with the final results and that was the point of the discussion. The exit poll was fairly accurate.
People got fooled by the Screaming Mimis. The TV news media likes conflict so the people with the biggest mouths, who say/sing/dance the most outragest stuff, get all of the air time. People sitting at home think the loudmouths have everything going for them for victory because the news media has them on camera so much. They think their own side must not have a lot of support. It's just not true. It's the media once again filtering what you see. In this case, it's not bias, by the way. It's just which group puts on the best show for the cameras. The news media thinks it translates to more viewers.
He says that the exit polls did find a 50-50 result in the recall of Walker, while the actual vote was about 53-47. Apparently the exit pollers tend to oversample Democratic-leaning voters, and this has been shown in previous Wisco. elections.
It's not tough to imagine how this could happen. Suppose that Republican voters tend to be concentrated into certain time periods, say 5-7 PM just after work, while Dem voters are distributed more evenly thru the day. If the pollsters do not take this into account, and poll evenly thruout the day, they end up with Dems over-sampled.
Barone adjusts the exit polling of Obama vs Romney to account for the evident oversampling and comes up with a result of Obama 48, Romney 48.
Although Obama won WI by 56-42 over McCain, both Gore and Kerry carried the state by less than half of a percentage point. Gore won over Bush by just .2 %, and Kerry by .4%. Given the the poor state of the economy after about 3.5 years of Obama, I think the 48-48 result sounds more reasonable.
Lol, posts on DU prove what? Two articles that don't cite any numbers? That is the best you can do? Show me a CNN report that cites numbers. When you do, they will say 52%/48% as of 3 PM or so, and 53%/46% as a final call. You're being childish citing early Tuesday reports that were reporting the early sampling. The final sampling correlates well with the final results and that was the point of the discussion. The exit poll was fairly accurate.
The links I cited are from Reuters and Yahoo, not DU.
Do you understand that the exit poll data right after the polls close is really rough--not everything is in--and that they wait to get everything in later in the night before they formalize them?
Do you understand that the exit poll data right after the polls close is really rough--not everything is in--and that they wait to get everything in later in the night before they formalize them?
Do you understand that CNN reported it as "tied" based on the exit polling?
Maybe you can explain whether you libs ever get tired of lying?
He says that the exit polls did find a 50-50 result in the recall of Walker, while the actual vote was about 53-47. Apparently the exit pollers tend to oversample Democratic-leaning voters, and this has been shown in previous Wisco. elections.
It's not tough to imagine how this could happen. Suppose that Republican voters tend to be concentrated into certain time periods, say 5-7 PM just after work, while Dem voters are distributed more evenly thru the day. If the pollsters do not take this into account, and poll evenly thruout the day, they end up with Dems over-sampled.
Barone adjusts the exit polling of Obama vs Romney to account for the evident oversampling and comes up with a result of Obama 48, Romney 48.
Although Obama won WI by 56-42 over McCain, both Gore and Kerry carried the state by less than half of a percentage point. Gore won over Bush by just .2 %, and Kerry by .4%. Given the the poor state of the economy after about 3.5 years of Obama, I think the 48-48 result sounds more reasonable.
He says that the exit polls did find a 50-50 result in the recall of Walker, while the actual vote was about 53-47. Apparently the exit pollers tend to oversample Democratic-leaning voters, and this has been shown in previous Wisco. elections.
It's not tough to imagine how this could happen. Suppose that Republican voters tend to be concentrated into certain time periods, say 5-7 PM just after work, while Dem voters are distributed more evenly thru the day. If the pollsters do not take this into account, and poll evenly thruout the day, they end up with Dems over-sampled.
Barone adjusts the exit polling of Obama vs Romney to account for the evident oversampling and comes up with a result of Obama 48, Romney 48.
Although Obama won WI by 56-42 over McCain, both Gore and Kerry carried the state by less than half of a percentage point. Gore won over Bush by just .2 %, and Kerry by .4%. Given the the poor state of the economy after about 3.5 years of Obama, I think the 48-48 result sounds more reasonable.
What you're saying makes sense. My understanding is that most polling firms take those factors into account, but the problem comes in when they start releasing data before the polls close or right after they close. They don't always have everything included at that point for the most accurate sampling.
it is a shame you and your citation missed the part where the final exit poll matches the final count. Sorta undermines all of his calculus.
The "toss up" 50%/50% claims were never accurate. At best the early exit poll sampling showed a within the margin 52%/48% advantage to walker.
The final number match up well and the wishful thinking of Wisc being a toss up are way overblown.
Exactly--they become more accurate from the early exit polling once they have everything in.
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