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Are you sure they had the data in by then? His link (I looked quickly so if I'm wrong, my apologies) did have it at 50/50% around 8 pm on CNN, but they may have updated the actual real numbers but not the articles at that point.
Yep, 100% sure. They did three sampling taken thru the day. I don't see any cite that is quoting amything other than 52%/48% reports early in the afternoon. I assume that everyone that is calling it a tie were using those numbers and calling it a toss up because 52%/48% was within the margin of error.
If there was ever an actual 50%/50% call it musta been the first sampling before I started watching at noon.
The Marquette Law School came in with the closest pre-voting poll predictions:
"The most recent independent Marquette Law School poll, in the field from May 23-26, gave GOP Gov. Scott Walker a 52 percent to 45 percent advantage.
PPP, a Democratic firm that was not polling for any campaign, was in the field on Saturday and Sunday. Their automated poll reported a 50 percent to 47 percent lead for Walker."
The Democrats didn't like the Marquette poll - This is from May 30, 2012:
"Wisconsin Democrats are firing back at the latest Marquette University Law School poll of the state recall election, which put Republican Gov. Scott Walker ahead of Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by a 7-point margin — in an effort to tamp down negative public perception as they head into the election’s final week. “Clearly this poll is out of step with everything else that is out there, and clearly with the political reality,” state Democratic Party Chairman Mike Tate said Wednesday on a conference call with reporters. “There have been three polls out in the last few days that have shown a dead heat, clearly a competitive race.” Tate was referring to three internal polls that have been released in the last few days from the Barrett campaign, the Democratic Governors Association and the liberal Greater Wisconsin Committee, which have ranged from a tie to a Walker lead of 3 points."
Maybe YOU need to cite CNN if you are going to quote them. Yahoo or Reuters aren't CNN.
Tied = 50%/50%
essentially tied DOES NOT EQUAL 50%/50%
Show your citation where CNN said the exit polls numbers were 50%/50%. Anything else from you is gibberish and spin.
I do marketing research, but I don't do election polling. Was 6% within their margin of error, or was Yahoo and Reuters basing the "essentially tied" on data from samples earlier in the day? That's a pretty big margin... You're right--the articles weren't from CNN (I told you I didn't look closely at first--long day at work).
The exit polling was obviously not all that great, since it was too close to call from that data and it wasn't close in any way in reality. The fact that voters voted to support Walker, but would also turn right around and support Obama is not logical. Any logical person can see that wouldn't make sense. However, state politics and national politics can be very different. I live in a state like that. This recall election result speaks to the sentiment in the country overall even more tha just in one state.
Translation: As a Romney campaign worker, I am unable to face the fact that Romney is trailing and is unlikely to win Wisconsin this fall.
The exit polls said the recall was a "tight race" and had it at 50/50.
They are worthless. If anyone on earth thinks Oblama will win Wisconsin by 7 points in November, they've got the intellectual capacity of Ed Schultz.
I have no doubt whatsoever that Oblama will lose WI in November, just like there was no doubt in my mind that Walker would win. I'm from the great state of Wisconsin and know how people think and vote there. Oblama's record doesn't merit a second term and Wisconsin voters won't give him one.
Also, Photo ID will be in place by November. The left won't steal WI again through fraud like they did in 2000 and 2004.
Maybe YOU need to cite CNN if you are going to quote them. Yahoo or Reuters aren't CNN.
Tied = 50%/50%
essentially tied DOES NOT EQUAL 50%/50%
Show your citation where CNN said the exit polls numbers were 50%/50%. Anything else from you is gibberish and spin.
You are arguing nonsense. In statistics it DOES mean it is esentially tied you can never 100% predict an outcome based on sampling, hence the margin of error.
I will not go scouring around the Internet for the screencap but when I tuned in at 9PM CNN, MSNBC and Fox all said the election was too close to call based on exit surveys. To me that would imply the race is statistically tied. Whether the underlying result was 49/51 is irrelevant it's within the ME and thus it's a tie.
You are arguing nonsense. In statistics it DOES mean it is esentially tied you can never 100% predict an outcome based on sampling, hence the margin of error.
I will not go scouring around the Internet for the screencap but when I tuned in at 9PM CNN, MSNBC and Fox all said the election was too close to call based on exit surveys. To me that would imply the race is statistically tied. Whether the underlying result was 49/51 is irrelevant it's within the ME and thus it's a tie.
I'm not the one spewing nonsense, the young HS kid still wet behind the ears is the one with the nonsense conspiracy theories.
The exit polls early, before the last sampling, had it too close to call, 52%/48%. After the polls closed and the final sampling was added and 52%/48% became 53%/46%. Apparently later voters favored walker and shifted the exit polls.
Would you agree that 52%/48% is considered a statistical tie?
You are arguing nonsense. In statistics it DOES mean it is esentially tied you can never 100% predict an outcome based on sampling, hence the margin of error.
I will not go scouring around the Internet for the screencap but when I tuned in at 9PM CNN, MSNBC and Fox all said the election was too close to call based on exit surveys. To me that would imply the race is statistically tied. Whether the underlying result was 49/51 is irrelevant it's within the ME and thus it's a tie.
No--they were saying too close to call at that point based on actual results as they came in (the percentage of the vote in, the margin, and from where, etc.). The networks don't use exit surveys to call a race--they use real results.
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Translation: As a Romney campaign worker, I am unable to face the fact that Romney is trailing and is unlikely to win Wisconsin this fall.
