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One thing to consider is how Romney is viewed in the state he used to govern.
In Massachusetts, Obama is up by and AVERAGE of 24 points in the polls and Romney has never won a SINGLE poll against Obama (not even on Rassmussen polls). The best Romney did was manage to be behind by "merely" 9 nearly a year ago and the two latest polls have Romney trailing by 27 and 28 points (ie Obama 57, Romney 30 and Obama 60, Romney 32).
That's a HUGE lead - even for a solidly "Blue" state like Massachusetts.
So what do they know in Massachusetts about Romney that the rest of America doesn't?
Ken
Massachusetts a bellwether for the country? Oh libs I'm beginning to feel sorry for you all.
Guess voters go by actual candidate records and what they do, rather than what they say in a staged, scripted, dog and pony show.
TPM bills itself as politically left. Let's look at the actual poll conducted:
Post debate, Mitt Romney got(Among neither Democrats nor Republicans, but All Register Voters as per the poll):
A 4% bump on health care.
A 3% bump on the war on terror.
A 4% bump on Iran issues.
A 5% bump on the economy.
A 6% bump on Immigration.
A 5% bump on Social Security.
An 8% bump on Medicare.
A 5% bump on Taxes.
A 2% bump on Gay Marriage.
A 6% bump on Jobs.
A 5% bump on the Federal Deficit.
And post-debate, Romney has a:
27% more favorable viewpoint towards him from some.
19% more negative viewpoint towards him from some.
(Difference: +8%)
And Obama has:
A 16% more favorable view towards him by some.
An 18% more negative view towards him by some.
A difference of -2%.
Barack Obama lost 1% of 'very favorable' and Mitt Romney gained 5% 'very favorable'.
Any one of these things would be inconsequential, but given how close polling is right now and that Romney gained an across the board increase in favorability, I'm unsure what TPM is suggesting.
Could you, perhaps, explain why an across the board increase in favorability and a slight decrease in Obama's favorability suggests voters don't care? As Romney won on every single point according to this poll, I am interested to see the methodology you used to reach that conclusion.
TPM bills itself as politically left. Let's look at the actual poll conducted:
Post debate, Mitt Romney got(Among neither Democrats nor Republicans, but All Register Voters as per the poll):
A 4% bump on health care.
A 3% bump on the war on terror.
A 4% bump on Iran issues.
A 5% bump on the economy.
A 6% bump on Immigration.
A 5% bump on Social Security.
An 8% bump on Medicare.
A 5% bump on Taxes.
A 2% bump on Gay Marriage.
A 6% bump on Jobs.
A 5% bump on the Federal Deficit.
And post-debate, Romney has a:
27% more favorable viewpoint towards him from some.
19% more negative viewpoint towards him from some.
(Difference: +8%)
And Obama has:
A 16% more favorable view towards him by some.
An 18% more negative view towards him by some.
A difference of -2%.
Barack Obama lost 1% of 'very favorable' and Mitt Romney gained 5% 'very favorable'.
Any one of these things would be inconsequential, but given how close polling is right now and that Romney gained an across the board increase in favorability, I'm unsure what TPM is suggesting.
Could you, perhaps, explain why an across the board increase in favorability and a slight decrease in Obama's favorability suggests voters don't care? As Romney won on every single point according to this poll, I am interested to see the methodology you used to reach that conclusion.
TPM wasn't the pollster and they clearly linked to the actual poll results.
They aren't SUGGESTING anything.
The pre/post debate Presidential preference numbers is where the rubber hits the road.
Yes it's very clear Romney won the debate and it's clear voters don't care.
TPM wasn't the pollster and they clearly linked to the actual poll results.
They aren't SUGGESTING anything.
The pre/post debate Presidential preference numbers are were the rubber hits the road.
Yes it's very clear Romney won the debate and it's clear they don't care.
Who doesn't care? I pointed out that he gained 2-8% in favorability in every single category according to the study cited by TPM. Could you, perhaps, point out how an average mean of a 4.8% gain in every single category and an 8% increase flat out in favorability isn't significant?
I suspect you might not have read the study that was quoted here or aren't aware of what statistical significance is. I'm honestly not talking down to you when I say that. I am sincerely puzzled at how anyone could read that document and come to your conclusion.
Who doesn't care? I pointed out that he gained 2-8% in favorability in every single category according to the study cited by TPM. Could you, perhaps, point out how an average mean of a 4.8% gain in every single category and an 8% increase flat out in favorability isn't significant?
I suspect you might not have read the study that was quoted here or aren't aware of what statistical significance is. I'm honestly not talking down to you when I say that. I am sincerely puzzled at how anyone could read that document and come to your conclusion.
Apparently, you are unable to read the last question of the poll where they ask those same respondents.
Who are you going to vote for?
The numbers barely moved. Romney gained 1 point of a 6 point gap.
I'm sorry if you don't like that answer, because that question is ultimately what matters ....LOL
Ah! I see. I read the TPM report as well. He's saying that the debate numbers moved, but not dramatically. There was no 10% increase to Romney and 10% decrease to Obama: Romney picked up 4% of the independents in the debate(But because of margins of error for subgroups, that may or may not be significant.) but that it wasn't a game changer.
I agree with the TPM report, actually. A significant number went to Romney, knocking many states to a tie again and making this a real horse race. But it wasn't a game changer or a defining moment. We'll have to wait and see.
You have read what TPM wrote, correct? He's not saying that nobody cares, just that it wasn't a knockout blow on Obama.
Don't confuse padcrasher, Tempestfugitive. S(H)e has been provided the script for the narrative, and is sticking to it, come...well, you know the phrase. Good analysis on your part, btw. I'll go back and rep you.
Ah! I see. I read the TPM report as well. He's saying that the debate numbers moved, but not dramatically. There was no 10% increase to Romney and 10% decrease to Obama: Romney picked up 4% of the independents in the debate(But because of margines of error for subgroups, that may or may not be significant.) but that it wasn't a game changer.
I agree with the TPM report, actually. A significant number went to Romney, knocking many states to a tie again and making this a real horse race. But it wasn't a game changer or a defining moment. We'll have to wait and see.
You have read what TPM wrote, correct? He's not saying that nobody cares, just that it wasn't a knockout blow on Obama.
I don't care what TPM says other than to clarify the post/pre debate Presidential preference question in the professional poll.
That's the only question that matters.
You can spin all you want about how Romney won the debate. I agree with you.
Apparently, you are unable to read the last question of the poll where they ask those same respondents.
Who are you going to vote for?
The numbers barely moved. Romney gained 1 point of a 6 point gap.
I'm sorry if you don't like that answer, because that question is ultimately what matters ....LOL
Ah! I see your points as well. Yes, you're correct - There is only a 1% change in gross numbers. That is, of course, irrelevant as Romney picked up a 4% hit on the independents. Are you aware of how population spread in places like New York and California skew the poll in terms of gross population? Romney would never significantly gain in San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles or other liberal strongholds with high population centers. That's not quite as relevant as the independents number.
Can you guess why and why the report itself suggests that this was a significant move?
EDIT: Wait - I just read your last post. I see that you are saying that you don't care what the numbers say, nor what the report given by TPM says. You only care about one data point, which isn't incredibly significant in this instance. All right. Have a good day.
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First Post Debate Poll In: Romney Won, Voters Don't Care
