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Romney has from now until the next debate to fully capitalize, but today's job numbers are going to stunt his momentum. I'm sure he'll throw rocks at the report but I do not think that will be enough.
You can marginalize good news all you want but this thread is about presidential polls and no doubt a lower UE number is good for the President's re-election.
I assure you that the few undecided voters aren't numbers wonks.
Very true. This could definitely be good news for the President - Can he capitalize on this number, or can Mitt Romney spin it to show that people are just giving up?
I suspect that the President will win this spin contest. In order for Mitt to pull this as a negative on the President would require an understanding of statistics, which is not general knowledge.
And for those who don't know, the 114k and 7.8% number come from two seperate surveys/polls. The 114K is a survey of businesses. The 7.8% is one of households.
Very true. This could definitely be good news for the President - Can he capitalize on this number, or can Mitt Romney spin it to show that people are just giving up?
I suspect that the President will win this spin contest. In order for Mitt to pull this as a negative on the President would require an understanding of statistics, which is not general knowledge.
The giving up argument is weak in this report because participation went UP not down. The BIG BIG idea in this month that will propel Obama is that UE is back to where it was the month he took over. He can argue that he fixed the mess and from here on its upward and onward. Not only that, but the Dow today crossed over the highest level since 2007 before the crash. So both jobs and investors have been made whole once again. Romney might argue that if he were president it would not have taken as long, but that is kind of like arguing that if he were president Bin Laden would be more dead.
Must mean more people are dropping out of the Obama economy. More college graduates stuck in their parents' basements, more spouses many of them men relying on their wives income. This has a disasterous affect on marriages BTW.
What a shame.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, participation INCREASED in this survey, so your premise is false. If you want to take solace in anything, it should be that the household survey is notoriously volatile. I guess in the internet age, people take everything that comes out as some sort of immutable truth, but historically, one always had to approach the household survey with a degree of skepticism regardless of the direction it was moving.
Of course, this report was way beyond the wildest hopes of the Obama camp and they will milk it for all that it is worth the next month. In November, it could all turn around, but by then, with early voting and people having decided, it may not matter.
Ah! I see your points as well. Yes, you're correct - There is only a 1% change in gross numbers. That is, of course, irrelevant as Romney picked up a 4% hit on the independents. Are you aware of how population spread in places like New York and California skew the poll in terms of gross population? Romney would never significantly gain in San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles or other liberal strongholds with high population centers. That's not quite as relevant as the independents number.
Can you guess why and why the report itself suggests that this was a significant move?
EDIT: Wait - I just read your last post. I see that you are saying that you don't care what the numbers say, nor what the report given by TPM says. You only care about one data point, which isn't incredibly significant in this instance. All right. Have a good day.
Irrelevant is right since, according to Reuters (and noted by Mateo up-thread), the president picked up 8 points among independents post-debate.
"His standing improved among independents by 8 percentage points."
And for those who don't know, the 114k and 7.8% number come from two seperate surveys/polls. The 114K is a survey of businesses. The 7.8% is one of households.
Yeah, the media cons are already claiming the numbers are cooked.
Isn't it nice to know that there are people who really would prefer their fellow citizens, and the country as a whole, continue suffering to score political points?
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Unemployment Drops to 7.8%
Ohio is not a toss up.