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A New York Magazine poll of political insiders, asked to predict the winner of the presidential election, finds President Obama overwhelmingly favored over Mitt Romney, 82% to 18%.
Thanks for posting that. It is a fascinating survey. I was very surprised that even though they were divided 50/50, Obama won the questions on who would be the better president in keeping America safe, fixing the economy, and being the stronger leader. If the most partisan people think so, it should tell you something.
Also the result that the most important Republican outside of Romney in the election is the Koch Brothers lets us know where the money is coming for Romney's campaign. That also explains why the Kochs are threatening their employees.
Obama has blown an almost 6 point lead in NH as now the race is tied there. I am a little surprised to see CO so tight - I thought the growth in Denver and Boulder would help turn that state more blue.
The +4 in PA is just shocking. Now, let's not forget - Kerry only won the state by about 2 points in 2004. The key for Romney is the Philadelphia suburbs and the rural counties. He needs to run up big margins in those areas. Also, if he can stunt Obama's margins in the Pittsburgh area, then he could win the state by 1-2 points.
If I were the Romney campaign, I would be planning a huge media blitz in PA for the last 2 weeks of the campaign.
Obama has blown an almost 6 point lead in NH as now the race is tied there. I am a little surprised to see CO so tight - I thought the growth in Denver and Boulder would help turn that state more blue.
The +4 in PA is just shocking. Now, let's not forget - Kerry only won the state by about 2 points in 2004. The key for Romney is the Philadelphia suburbs and the rural counties. He needs to run up big margins in those areas. Also, if he can stunt Obama's margins in the Pittsburgh area, then he could win the state by 1-2 points.
If I was the Romney campaign, I would be planning a huge media blitz in PA for the last 2 weeks of the campaign.
romney has given up seriously competing in PA and MI according to an advisor.
Romney has absolutely made a comeback and is polling better in most swing states, even winning a few. That is not in question.
The problem is before the comeback, Romney was in a pretty deep hole electoral college wise. His turnaround has been impressive, but that hole was even more impressive. For him to pull of a win he needs damn near every single tossup state to go his way. That is hard to do in the timeframe Romney had to do it in.
Again it is not impossible, but no one should be throwing a party just yet on either side really. But if I were Obama I wouldn't be in a rush to start packing.
He basically needs to win Ohio, Florida and Virginia a big feat but possible about 50/50. In an environment where polls are showing PA tightening with virtually no campaigning I find it hard to believe Ohio is even anything but a lean Romney at this point.
good chance? quit drinking the koolaid. all 3 of those have numbers favorable to obama right now.
All are within the ME in public polling. Obamas post debate plans are telling off to NH and IA his folks know something is off. NPR has a poll showing Romney at landslide levels among swing state rural voters.
You're going to have to come to terms the race has structurally shifted.
So, you are saying that the people should not even bother to vote because "Obama got a 2nd term"?
Without the election even being held?
Lay off the Obama brew.
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