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Well, Rasmussen is showing Obama on 48% and Romney on 45% today.
that's right, about the same as they showed Romney ahead of Obama right after the Republican convention. Let's face it, right now we still have a thight race, we are probably going to see these figures stay about the same only bounce back and forth some at least until the debates. I don't know if it has been mentioned, but one reason for Obama getting a slightly and very slightly higher bump than Romney got has to do with the conventions being so close together. Normally it takes a few days for a bump to show and this year there were only a few days between the two.
that's right, about the same as they showed Romney ahead of Obama right after the Republican convention. Let's face it, right now we still have a thight race, we are probably going to see these figures stay about the same only bounce back and forth some at least until the debates. I don't know if it has been mentioned, but one reason for Obama getting a slightly and very slightly higher bump than Romney got has to do with the conventions being so close together. Normally it takes a few days for a bump to show and this year there were only a few days between the two.
Nita
Well, it's better than that for Romney.
A WaPo/ABC poll today shows the spread UNCHANGED from before the conventions of both parties. I'd be very very concerned right now if I were silly enough to still be supporting this failed president.
As for the OP, what sort of worldview does one have to make them want to ignore reality and create fake electoral maps? What sort of strange comfort does that create?
The alternate reality of a paid political operative.
The illustration below presents two different versions of our House forecast. The red line reflects the actual FiveThirtyEight forecast as we ran it last night. This assumes that the error from race to race is partially correlated: not wholly so or mostly so, but at least partly so: there is some chance that the Republicans will overperform in quite a number of races, and likewise for Democrats.
Well, what a difference one little assumption makes. In the dumbed-down forecast, the margin of error is plus or minus about 8 seats — that is, 52 ± 8 — so Republicans can almost always be counted upon to win between 44 seats and 60.
The real FiveThirtyEight forecast, however, has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 29 seats. This means that the Democrats do have a substantial chance of retaining control of the House — about 20 percent. But it also means that Republican gains in excess of 60 seats are quite possible (better than a 30 percent chance).
The blue line, the dumbed-down forecast, certainly looks a lot tidier and makes for a better headline. “The Republicans will win between 44 and 60 seats” sounds punchy and confident.
In fact, according to our more sophisticated model, a forecast of between 44 and 60 seats is at least as likely as not to be wrong: the chances are a little over 50 percent that Republicans’ gains will fall outside this range.
Our projection says that Republicans are favorites in 231 House races, which would reflect a net gain of 52 seats.
Now move in the other direction. Say that we’ve underestimated Republicans’ margin by 1 point across the board. There are 8 seats that we’re currently projecting Democrats to hold by less than 1 point.
Give those 8 seats to Republicans, and the gains tally grows to 60.
This is why we say the Democrats have a decent shot at holding the House. Not because the enthusiasm gap is going to close substantially at the last minute (although it might be tightening very slightly), or because the Democrats will suddenly come up with some winning message, or anything else that makes for a particularly sexy story — rather, it is simply because there’s at least some uncertainty about where the polling in this election stands in the first place (as there is every year), and it wouldn’t take a very large mistake in the polling to produce a large error in the seat count.—
With 30% of the African American vote... RIGHT.........
Not just 30% of the African American vote, but also...
A 44 point gender gap.
70% GOP vote in the entire Greensboro Area. (Republicans get around 70% in places like Randolph and Yadkin Counties, which are their strongest rural counties in the state, there is no sane person that honestly believes that they will get anywhere near that in the whole Greensboro area.)
And the kicker is that almost all of Romney lead comes from under 40. That is right, over 40 according to that poll is a statistical tie, people under 40 it claims will vote for Romney by an 18% margin.
That poll has serious problems with reality, but then again it is Art Pope so it doesn't surprise me.
Current polls have Obama up anywhere from 1 to 6% with an average of 3.6%. A recent article states that Romney is running out of time and may be too far behind to catch up.
Well consider that at this time 4 years ago on Sept. 11th, McCain was beating Obama by 2.5% in the RCP average. Obama led by 7.6% in the RCP average on election day -- a 10.1% swing.
Bush led Kerry by 6.7% at this time 8 years ago in the RCP average. Bush had a 1.5% advantage on election day in the RCP average -- a -5.2% swing.
The fact is, you do see swings in the polls in these final months...even with a controversial Bush in the office running for reelection.
So it would not be impossible to see swings either way including Romney taking a lead. Also, Obama was pretty much the challenger in 2008 and it was hard to tell if he was running against McCain or Bush. If you consider, Obama the challenger, then the natural progression of these polls in recent history is that the swing favors the challenger against the incumbent.
Romney is still very much in the race, but President Obama has the edge. Romney has little room for error and must do well in the debates or at least hold his own, but the election is still in the air.
---Remember the victims today and do charity throughout the year, not just today, make this a better place for us all to live---
Not just 30% of the African American vote, but also...
A 44 point gender gap.
70% GOP vote in the entire Greensboro Area. (Republicans get around 70% in places like Randolph and Yadkin Counties, which are their strongest rural counties in the state, there is no sane person that honestly believes that they will get anywhere near that in the whole Greensboro area.)
And the kicker is that almost all of Romney lead comes from under 40. That is right, over 40 according to that poll is a statistical tie, people under 40 it claims will vote for Romney by an 18% margin.
That poll has serious problems with reality, but then again it is Art Pope so it doesn't surprise me.
I knew something was off with that poll I didn't even bother to read the crosstabs.
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Romney down 3.6% RCP avg. -- is time running out?
