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But by the way, NPR elaborated that 2% is still crawling. Not good enough to significantly affect the unemployment rate in itself. If unemployment goes down, it will be because more people stopped looking for work.
I've always felt that models using GDP growth as a measure of electoral outcome were flawed. During a period of high growth and economic expansion, maybe. But when 47 million households are on foodstamps and 23 million people out of work? No way, no how does 2% GDP growth drive an electoral outome. There's simply too many negatives outweighing the positives.
Hey, since you're so smart, tell me why they have Ohio, at a 75% chance of an Obama win, considering the polls say otherwise..
Obama doesn't have to lead Romney by a 75-25 margin to have a 75% chance of carrying the state. The model is saying that Obama would win Ohio 75 times out of 100 if the election were held 100 times.
I seen them, and laughed my ass off because someone, actually took the time, to be that wrong.
Hey, since you're so smart, tell me why they have Ohio, at a 75% chance of an Obama win, considering the polls say otherwise..
Again, the information is in the cite. Silver actually uses the state polls in his statistical analysis. When you start accurately predicting national elections, we will start listening to you.
Again, the information is in the cite. Silver actually uses the state polls in his statistical analysis. When you start accurately predicting national elections, we will start listening to you.
So you cant answer? Once again, how do they compute Obama at 75% chance of winning?
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee
Obama doesn't have to lead Romney by a 75-25 margin to have a 75% chance of carrying the state. The model is saying that Obama would win Ohio 75 times out of 100 if the election were held 100 times.
That makes no sense considering we only vote 1 time, and people wont switch their votes, even if they held them 100 times..
Do you expect people to suddenly wake up one day and go, oooh, I'm switching my vote..
I've always felt that models using GDP growth as a measure of electoral outcome were flawed. During a period of high growth and economic expansion, maybe. But when 47 million households are on foodstamps and 23 million people out of work? No way, no how does 2% GDP growth drive an electoral outome. There's simply too many negartives outweighing the positives.
The impact is not material, but the point to underscore is the overall trend line. Unemployment has been trending down since 2010 and that is seen, on the whole, as a positive thing (definitely more positive than trending up). And contrary to popular belief on Internet Boards and Fox News, a sizeable number of Americans do not hold Obama accountable for the massive job losses incurred from Day One in office. They don't expect a patient who broke his back to be back on his feet competing in an Iron Man contest in two months. People who blame the economic woes of the country on Obama were not likely to vote for him anyway.
The other thing is that a number of people arefully employed and thus view news of better than average GDP growth as a good thing.
No offense but your post is economic illiteracy. How can government spending be excluded from GDP when the definition of GDP is:
where:
C = consumption
I= gross investment G = government spending
X = exports
M = imports
Government spending is a component of GDP.
Moreover, it makes no difference from a macro-economic standpoint if GM sells a car to you or it sells it to the Interior Department. e proceeds go into the economy; people are working to produce the car, etc. Those people take their earnings and spend it in the economy.
I answered your question. It is in the cite. Trying reading and listening instead of talking. You will learn more that way.
no you didnt, in fact you admitted you didnt know by telling me to do your homework for you.
If YOU are going to cite something as accurate, be prepared to defend it..
FAIL
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GDP is not a great measure of the health of the economy unless government spending is taken out.
